5/22: Arlington (6th-9th)
 

Was taken out of late Belmont P4 immediately Wednesday with Clement's March to Victory, and scuffled around until hitting major paydirt with the nightcap trifecta. Tom Bush's Imperial River ($20.00) was the 8-1 'Best Value' player and my 2nd tab, along with 'Most Likely' obvious favorite Rockon Rockoff (9-5), must-include 'Next Best' ML second choice Dos Hombres (7-2) and 15-1 'Exotics Add' Challenger's Song.

Imperial River screamed "Play Me"... Bush has been red hot already at the young Belmont meet winning with 4 of his first 11 starters, and here he was dropping the gelding from MSW company to Maiden Claiming, (a move that DRF told you works 28% of the time for a $3.51 ROI). He also tabbed Cornelio Velasquez for the ride (2/5 at meet-$5.40; 25% L2Y-$2.64), who was an upgrade from Carol Cedeno. Blinkers were going on, and while they aren't Bush's best angle, they had to sharpen this son of Hussonet who had failed to really run in his first 2 career starts.

But there was something else, and it only showed up modestly as a DRF trainer statistic: 2nd off layoff. DRF showed you that Bush was 15% second off breaks of 45-180 days for a $1.60 ROI. Thoro-Graph's Trainer Profile stats showed that in fact Bush was running 26.3% wins/51% ITM-2nd/layoffs (of any kind) with a $2.60 ROI. That's a big difference and was instrumental in keying the 9-1 overlay 1st and 2nd with the other three choices. The triple returned $490.00 on the $24 wager when Imperial River won with Dos Hombres (4.00-1) second and Challenger's Song ($15.10) third.

Hope you did well.. Some OK racing at Chicago today with the late Quad comprised of 4 straight mile events..


ARLINGTON PARK


6th: IL-bred MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pullmanite 2-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Star Victor 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Flyabovetherest 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #7 Iron Vow 6-1 WON


7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 O'Connell's 3-1 8th
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #7 Florida Jack Pot 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Very Capo 6-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e SCR (#1a DOES go.. Info was wrong on AP website) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wine and Dyne 4-1 WON
Next Best: #2 SCR


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (Super)

Don't trust the favorite Winner's Story here at all..

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #2 Molander 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Beaufort 4-1 WON
Exotics Add: #3 Lord Vader 9-2 3rd


Good luck!
Steve

and the funny thing is that at saratoga this guy gets overlooked every year....

Pullmanite's a classic money burner. He's obviously the most likely, but don't you get the feeling that he'll just find a way to lose again today?

And god, I hate big chalk, but Dazzle Darlin looked AWESOME here opening day.

In the first leg of the P4, keep an eye on Springer's first time starter, #3 Hello Sailor, think he has a shot to run well with Zimmerman aboard.

Card got chopped up badly with SCR.. There's conflicting info on whether the 1a is scratched (as well as the 1) in the 8th... :confused:

Was a bad card anyways, now tomorrow and Saturday :)

I am playing Beneficary if I can get 4/5 and then maybe that Hello Sailor horse, and that is it....

ALL IN ON Hacker Craft tomorrow :)

6: 3
7: 3,7
8: 5

$25 = $50

Nice call
 

on Hacker Craft in the 4th at AP. Looked like a winner but went way wide, couldn't catch the chalk. Hope you played WP

Stumbling at the start didn't help, nor did the crawling fractions. Horse ran great.