Derby Day Forecast
 

It looks like the forecast for Derby Day will be thunderstorms and rain during the very early morning, with a chance of showers throughout the day. I haven't seen too many people talking about how an off-track will affect their handicapping. I would be interested in hearing peoples' opinions about the field if the track is muddy or good.

Isn't Smooth Air the only horse out of this bunch to win in the slop? Honestly, I can't remember ... I need to look at the PP's.

I was thinking that same thing. Heard on Steve's show that the track drains really well so the slop really isn't a big deal. unless they get a constant down pour.

but... if it is off I am tossing Z Fortune.

OK, so glancing over the PP's, Smooth Air, Visionaire and Denis of Cork have all won over a sloppy track.

I think Visionaire won at Aqueduct in the slop.

Pyro has the best speed rating in the slop, BC Juvenile - 109

Visionaire gets a SR of 100 in the slop and
Smooth Air gets a 99

Tale of Ekati also ran in the BC Juvenile and got a 94 BRIS speed rating

I don't think the slop will hurt Big Brown at all

he would probably move up being sired by Boundary

lol I just looked at the comment line for Big Brown's Fla Derby win
"drew away, Greenly"

siphons run pretty good in the slop, although Z isn't the typical early speed from that sire.

recapturetheglory wouldn't mind a sloppy track at all.

Big Brown is probably going out front, so he wouldn't mind the slop too much as well

maybe a "good" track is more likely than sloppy or muddy

hmmm... Z Fortune did break his maiden on a "good" track

it was just that my sheet claims that Siphon only has 9% mud blood

ok, not cancelling my bet no matter what

I could be wrong. Going from personal pattern recognition not stats here. It seems like I have seen a bunch of siphons who are early speed thrive on the mud. off the top of my head= Siphon City, the ones trained by Ladernsia(sp?) etc... but i don't have any stats here.

According to weather.com.. it looks like the rain will end tonight and be sunny by Saturday afternoon. My guess is the track will be "good" at worst for the Derby itself...
the bigger issue, IMO, is the forecast for Severe weather Friday night with "Thunderstorms, strong winds, damaging hail and possibly a TORNADO".. I think some horses may get a bit spooked overnight.

Rain or shine we are going to throw money at the worst betting race of the year.

Young horses being asked to go longer than they have yet to race.

A 20 horse field( which is really crazy ).

You think the threat of rain is going to stop us for betting this race?