I drank the Kool-aide lastyear
 

The more I look at the pps , watch videos and listen to the experts I see Col John as this years Sweetnorther Saint and BB as Barbaro. Ifell for the SNS hype . The more I look at this race the more Im convinced. I reserve the right to change my mind untill post time.If it walks like a duck and looks like a duck surly its a duck. The search for "value" in the betting will lure bettors toward CJ and he will probably end up going off favored. Im sure many will disagree with me but look at the similarities.

How about year before last

I actually don't think Sweetnorthernsaint and Colonel John were similar coming into the Derby at all. I'm not sure who the apt comparison is for Colonel John, but it sure as shootin' ain't Sweetnorthernsaint. Barbaro might fit in some respect for Big Brown, but I think Big Brown is a lot more Bellamy Road than he is Barbaro.

Colonel John is a little Indian Charlie-ish I suppose... more experienec, but similar accolades.

with big brown drawing #20, more money will go on colonel john,then would of. i suspect the odds maybe close. could not understand the sweetnothernsaint price last year. street sense was easy to take at 9-2 thats for sure. big brown like barbaro, i'll believe that if he wins , which i doubt. i agree with the bellamy road comparison. pyro at anything over 6-1 is my bet especially if its wet. i also like his stablemate z fortune. and this horse will be a square price. assmussen does not run his mouth like dutrow , but i think he likes this horse. he ran big in arkansas and assmussen commented on how important the arkansas derby has been. he called the closest race to the derby. thats why curlin ran in it last year. i sort of think he went there instead of keenland because he thought that horse would win, he ran a good second which makes for a good price saturday.

Indian Charlie was slight? how so?

I thought he was a long striding horse

johnny p, you like monba at all? he seems to be able to stalk or close plus he has a nice race at churchill. he might be worth a shot.

Yeah, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Indian Charlie like 16.2 or 16.3 hands? Definitely not a small horse by any means. :confused:

I wasnt refering to running styles. What I was refering to was the early need for everyone to look for value and pick apart Barbaros preperation or lack of. SNS was probably 2nd or 3rd in the early going as far as odds but with the search for "VALUE" SNS went off favored. Thats the comparison I see in Col John and Big Brown. I fell for the SNS hype and that makes me think it is folish to get off of the most logical winner to get "VALUE".

I just have a hard time seeing a logical winner as one that has only had 3 starts. While Barbaro ran his last prep 5 weeks before like Big Brown, he had started as a two year old and had 6 starts before the Kentucky Derby.

I agree. The hype around Big Brown reminds of of the talk about Curlin last year. "He's a monster horse" everybody said. "Forget that he only has three starts-- he's a monster." Well, Curlin IS a monster, but he was still too green to pull off a Derby victory. If a monster like Curlin couldn't pull it off, why should I believe that Big Brown can do it?

I guess the logic this year is that this crop sucks ... last year's crop was a lot more talented. I dunno, it will be hard for me to toss Big Brown because he has looked so good, but then my instinct tells me his chances are slim because of past history. I haven't a clue of what to do with him. :o

Different year.
There isn't another horse in the same zip code as Hard SPun or Street Sense in this race. His opponents are no nowhere near what Curlin faced last year. Big Brown is definitely the champ on paper this year.

I'm still not sold on him to win this race, but I certainly won't fault people that use him as a key horse on their tickets.

the more I think about it the more I think I need to put $2 on Big Brown to win
just to make sure he doesn't

there it's done the "weight" has been added.
he can't carry me across the wire

i don't like him . i think he got lucky at keenland with a slow pace. he'll be left and won't be able to make it up . pyro had no shot in that race the pace was too slow. the arkansas race was a fast pace and the first 2 ran fast . i don't know if gayego can get 1 and 1/4. but i think z fortune could. both those horses will be a good price. i like z fortune. i think big brown will be in trouble if he goes for the lead early. bob black jack is very fast early, no ones talking about this, he clearly can run the fastest half. if mig sends him the frontrunners will be in trouble if they press. the problem i see with big brown is he won't get his own way up front. i believe there is early speed in here the likes of what hes never seen.

One big difference is that SNS was training horribly the week leading up to the Derby. He looked really sore galloping that week. I loved SNS' win in the Illinois Derby but I nixed him in the Ky Derby because he made such a poor appearance in the mornings.

CJ looks like he is training well.

Because BB's running style keeps him out of trouble better than Curlin at the same time last year. I'm not saying BB is a monster or even the winner, but he shouldn't get bounced around and/or get a bunch of dirt in his face like Curlin did.

I'm sorry, but this is total nonsense. How, exactly, was Curlin "too green" to pull off a Derby victory? What about his run was "green"? The reason he lost is because he drew a bad post, he didn't have enough early speed to make out his own trip and he got bounced around. It wasn't because he was green.

What about two weeks later? All of a sudden he was no longer green?