Tomlinson Ratings for Derby Contenders
 

Here are the Tomslinson Ratings for all contenders in future pool 3. Just food for thought. . .

Adriano - 342
Z Fortune - 336
Big Brown - 316
Salute the Sarge - 315
War Pass - 314
Colonel John - 313
Smooth Air - 309
Tomcito - 308
Big Truck - 306
Court Vision - 306
Cool Coal Man - 289
Pyro - 286
Yankee Bravo - 280
Denis of Cork - 279
Atoned - 278
My Pal Charlie - 275
Blackberry Road - 272
Gayego - 256
Bob Black Jack - 243
El Gato Malo - 238
Tale of Ekati - 236
Visionaire - 202
Liberty Bull - 183

can you in detail explain what a tomlinson number is ?

i thought it had something to do with a off track, i guess i was wrong .

They have numbers for mud breeding, turf breeding, and distance breeding. These are for 1 1/4 miles+.

More info: http://www.drf.com/misc/tomlinson.html

liberty bull my bud longshot............

The biggest waste of ink in the DRF.

Not if you know how to use them.

Glad u include them into your handicapping, but I dont need some rating to tell me what a horse is breed to do. Almost as big of a joke as dosage.

Agreed. They certainly aren't bulletproof, but they're pretty accurate for the patently unquantifiable science of pedigree analysis.

You and your damn 'bull' horses... last year it was Bwana Bull. :D

I MADE a comment a while back about dennis of corks pedigree i said i did not think he could get the distance and ppl went crazy on me!

these numbers have him on the bottom half of that list, im assuming thats not a good thing,

Not necessarily at all. . . The fact of the matter is that NONE of these #s are very high and the long distance #s are a little different than most. DofC won't have distance problems.

who ran 5 steps..lol

The DRF's explanation page of what the numbers mean is fine, but it doesn't explain how they are derived. Basically, in terms of his distance ratings, Lee Tomlinson places a value on SIRES based on the average winning distances and winning percentage of their get. Each runner in question earns a 'Tommy' distance number that is calculated by adding 100% of the SIRES' score to 50% of the BROODMARE SIRE'S score.

Inherent then in the Tommies is the assumption that the stamina of the runner in question is influenced to a greater extent by the sire as opposed to the broodmare sire. Personally, I disagree with that premise as the breeding maxim of 'speed over stamina' is something I adhere to, and find particularly effective when evaluating Derby prospects.

Remember that originally the Tommies were used to evaluate 'Mudders and Turfers'... The distance evaluator was the last addition to Lee's system and I believe while useful, are the least reliable of his numbers. The broodmare sire profile is highly influential in projecting a young runner's potential to get a distance of ground.

When I see a wicked sloppy track, I definitely at least consider Tomlinson numbers.

I refer to them with first turf and any races in the mud.
Question: Why is the Tomlinson number for Big Brown as high as it is
when his breeding suggest(according to Lauren Stich) that
he should want no part of a 1 1/4?

A nice boost would come from Nureyev, the broodmare sire... And Boundary himself likely has an average base figure.

Guess? Boundary scores a 180 and Nureyev a 270 for stamina. That's 180 + 135 = 315... bringing up Big Brown to an OK distance score.

Thanks Steve.

The number that suprises me is Salute the Sarge.

Hes too slow for any number to matter.

I don't really disagree. I always considered him a Sprinter/Miler type so the number suprised me a bit. Maybe I am just bitter that he cost me the Magna 5 last weekend.

I think it's a little crazy that they are considering him for the Derby and I suspect they would only run him because Signature Move hasn't panned out (yet) and they seem eager to have something in the race. I guess they can prove me wrong in the Lexington.