Does overhyped really mean overbet?
 

Since GP reconfigured the track in 2005, and did away with it's old speed biased ways....here are the lightly raced, fairly unacomplished types, who made huge 3yo debuts in elongated one-turn races at GP. Note how underrated these "overhyped" horses were from a betting standpoint next time out....

2005: Bellamy Road returns at a mile and wins his 3yo debut by 15 lengths with a 96 Beyer off of a 5 month layoff. Next out, he wins the Wood by 17 lengths at 5/2 odds. He was joint favorite with the "proven" and "classy" Going Wild...who was beaten about 40 lengths at 5/2.

2006: Showing Up wins his debut big in Mid-Feb with 97 Beyer at 6.5f - is entered in a one-turn mile next out and wins with a 101 Beyer at 8/5. From there he wins the Lexington at 3/2 in just career start #3.

Bernardini returns from a 2 month layoff to win an alw race at one mile by 8 with a 90 Beyer in just career start #2. He wins the Withers next out as the 9/5 2nd choice.

2007: Curlin wins his debut by double digits with a 101 Beyer. He comes back to win the Rebel as the 5/2 second choice.

2008: Hey Byrn wins his 3yo debut by 14 going a mile with a 97 Beyer. He returns to win by 6 lengths as the 2/1 second choice.


Big Brown is obviously similarly lightly raced and "unaccomplished" - and while he may be overhyped....he's still obviously the best horse running in the Florida Derby.

The post will hurt him - but his races are real.

If anyone remembers any other lightly raced and unaccomplished 3yo's that returned to run Beyers of 90 in elongated one turn races at GP, let me know who I'm forgetting.

I would guess there might be a Pletcher horse or two that fit your criteria. Don't recall if Bandini's allowance win was one-turn or not. I suppose Sun King was considered an accomplished horse by the time of his allowance comeback at GP. What about Devil Dealer or whatever that horse's name was that ended up in the Arkansas Derby last year?

He was the 7th choice in his debut - probably because Pat Reynolds never seems to win with debuters. How many has he won with this decade?

And while the March 5th race was an off-the-turfer....the two horses he sparred with early are both dirt horses - and both (Crimson Comic and Hedgefund Investor) would be single digit odds in almost any N1X dirt allowance around one turn with the form they brought into the race.

Basically, Big Brown fractured those two in the pace battle. They finished 4th and 5th and both were all but eased.

If it was a situation where Hedgefund Investor and Crimson Comic went head-to-head...and Big Brown rated off of them from a clear and isolated 3rd position....I would have a much less favoable opinion about Big Brown's race. MUCH less.

The horse who got the dream trip was the 2nd place finisher - however, he was 45/1 in a five horse field for a reason.

Big Brown doesn't exactly deserve extra praise for beating a dream trip 2nd place horse by a pole when said 2nd place horse is a total bum.

To me, Big Brown has already proven himself ability wise as far as what he can do from up on the pace.

What will happen when he doesn't make the lead, gets behind horses, and has dirt kicked in his face? What will happen if he has to try and run hard from on the pace the entire way at a distance of 9f or greater. To me, those are the only two questions he needs to address.

Deadly Dealer. . . I have some recollection of him returning recently somewhere and winning but I could be wrong. And I think his win at GP was in an MSW over Sahara Heat (I might be mixing up two races from that day). . .

Drugs - I liked the write up and agree with you that Big Brown is probably the most talented horse in the race and his performances were legit. But, is he THAT much more talented than some of the others so that he can overcome that huge post disadvantage? Not with my money @ 3-1 or lower.

Bandini got an 86 Beyer at 7f's in his GP return race.

Was stretched out to 9f's at GP in his next start and won by 9 lengths at even money with a 90 Beyer.

Luxemburg won his return going 6.5 at GP with a 91 Beyer. He won next out by 4 at AQU at 4/5 before losing the withers to Bernardini.

You are right about Deadly Dealer - he won big at 7.5f and than bombed behind Curlin next out in the Ark Derby.

Just saying that the performance wasn't fake.

Hedgefund Investor and Crimson Comic are nothing if not fast for 4 furlongs.

Not with mine either.

But yeah, I'd still say he's the most likely winner.

"His father was a mudder his mother was a mudder"
 

#12 Big Brown (Boundary) crushed a field of 5 horse as the favorite with a sloppy track. Boudary is a very good sire of mudders. Won't be at a price I will take.

He'll seem 'em all as he goes to or near the lead but the rail is the place to be going 1 1/8th at Gulfstream.

#1 Fierce Wind- has been working quick.
#2 Smooth Air - 2nd try going a route, has never been off the board.

#4 Tomcito - could be a fly in the ointment

#8 Elysium Fields - another one that has never been off the board. Has experience at the distance, at the track and was on the outside last time.

#10 Majestic Warrior - just because Bellamy Road is mentioned in the thread and he owes me, if I can get 12-1 I'll put some saver money on him.

#11 Face The Cat - like Curlin, previously trained by Helen Pitts angle? too far out for a win but could hit the board.


Right now I am thinking about keying Smooth Air.

2 w/ 1,4,8,10 w/11

$4 investment

(last time I saved money it cost me half of $3,200)

good luck

It was not a sloppy track.




Tomicito was actually the 68th most expensive of 68 Street Cry yearlings to sell at auction Internationally in 2006.

A few Street Cry's that sold dirt cheap in Aussie land gave him a run for his money for the blacksheep title.

There have been a few other blacksheeps that have done ok though.

Da Hoss was actually the cheapest of 23 Gone West yearlings to sell at auction when he was a yearling.

City Zip was the 30th most expensive of 31 Carson City yearlings to sell that year.

Da Hoss selling for 6K and City Zip for 9K.

There might be more - I just don't remember them.

I should have looked past the circled x. I saw Boundary and figured he excelled on an off track. :o

Very nice auction info. Tomcito is an unknown. I could assume that he won't be part of the pace, won't get in Big Brown's way. Most foreign horses aren't conditioned for speed- by US standards.

Well, I am going to be an early jumper and jump on the Tomicito train.. Love the 12-1 (will be higher) odds and am hoping he emerges with a victory this afternoon. The way this year has gone so far.. Why not? May be getting a bit desperate, but what the hey :p

This little trend seems to have continued.