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-   -   3/21: Aqueduct ($41k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21064)

Kasept 03-21-2008 08:42 AM

3/21: Aqueduct ($41k C/O)
 
Intense 2 days with the oversize carries at AQU and SA resulting in $30k and $700k paydays for ticket hitters. Santa Anita's sextet Thursday ended up being relatively formful with but one truly tough horse to embrace, Rasgado in the 6th. Couldn't adjust selections yesterday, and effort came up a 'non-play' when second leg single Abby Cat scratched. But had 5 winners as no worse than third choice with other single Lethal Heat coming through in the feature. Was a fun card to attack. Hope you did well. Another C/O at AQU today!


AQUEDUCT


4th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3)

Most Likely: #1e Contessa entry 6-5 WON (SCR #1a Handsome Reward)
Best Value: #4 Honour Above Self 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Langley 5-1 6th
Exotics Add: #8 Here I Go Again 15-1 2nd


5th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3)

Standing against #3 Zip's Affair (5-2)..

Most Likely: #5 Road Not Traveled 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Wooden 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Wonforthegoodguys 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #1 Love Lyndsey 15-1 5th


6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Tiz the Moon 7-2 8th
Next Best: #4 Jule City 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Senora Roberta 5-1 WON
Exotics Add: #5 Fiddlers Fever 4-1 3rd


7th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #7 Two Turn Halo 5-1 WON
Best Value: #5 One Tough Belle 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Alyssa the Dancer 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #6 Aegean Breeze 3-1 5th


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #6 Sir Winston 9-2 3rd
Most Likely: #1e Contessa entry 7-2 4th/6th
Next Best: #5 Elusive Value 8-5 2nd


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Mr Park Avenue 2-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Noosa Cat 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Bumble 10-1 8th
Exotics Add: #2 Say Karakorum Sandy 6-1 6th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4
5: 5
6: 2-4
7: 1-5-6-7
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-9

2x1x2x4x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4
7: 1-7
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-2-3-9

2x2x3x4 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 09:09 AM

I like the aggressive move in the 5th excluding the 3...

what has me a little confused is you're excluding the 2 and 4 who should be on or near the lead around the first turn.

Hard Iron was just a little over a length behind your top choice last out and it was his first route race in over a year. He seems to have his best races around two turns. Plus the jockey switch and drop in weight is an added bonus.

I've gotta play this horse at 8/1 or better.

Gate Dancer 03-21-2008 09:42 AM

Thanks!
 
Appreciate the info on Lethal Heat...........unreal down the stretch........looks to have a future going two turns............helped getting some spending money for the Saturday Turfway card!!

Kasept 03-21-2008 10:08 AM

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

Kasept 03-21-2008 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer
Appreciate the info on Lethal Heat...........unreal down the stretch........looks to have a future going two turns............helped getting some spending money for the Saturday Turfway card!!

G/D,

You're quite welcome. Had the look of a standout to me. Couldn't play yesterday myself, so I'm glad someone took advantage! G/L this weekend..

SB

docicu3 03-21-2008 11:01 AM

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4
7: 1-7...5
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-2-3-9

2x3x3x4 = 64

Steve

Your begging for The #5 One Tough Belle in the 7th to break a very nice P4 play as Arroyo got a monster efforts out of her earlier in the meet at higher levels.

Who cares if you bump the cost of the ticket by 16 bucks if it adds a 14-16 dollar winner to the sequence. Your right she is the best value here today.

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 11:53 AM

Race 1
Double 1,6/4,6
WP 6

dylbert 03-21-2008 11:55 AM

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-8
5: 3-5
6: 4
7: 1-3-6-7
8: 1-2-5
9: 1-9

$192 total

Kasept 03-21-2008 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4
7: 1-7...5
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-2-3-9

2x3x3x4 = 64

Steve

Your begging for The #5 One Tough Belle in the 7th to break a very nice P4 play as Arroyo got a monster efforts out of her earlier in the meet at higher levels.

Who cares if you bump the cost of the ticket by 16 bucks if it adds a 14-16 dollar winner to the sequence. Your right she is the best value here today.

DD,

As always, the $50 budget is a guideline. The 5 would absolutely be a good addition to the play.. I really like Two Turn Halo though and am protecting with Kiaran's runner. Trying to be narrow there in favor of wide in that tough feature and quirky nightcap...

Good luck!

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 12:25 PM

Race 2
WP 6

Payson Dave 03-21-2008 12:58 PM

AQU Race 3

Ex 2,6/2,3,6

fpsoxfan 03-21-2008 01:45 PM

They really need to get to Belmont. They may as well re-name this phucking place to the Contessa Downs or something like that. There I feel better.
Thanks for listening.

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
I like the aggressive move in the 5th excluding the 3...

what has me a little confused is you're excluding the 2 and 4 who should be on or near the lead around the first turn.

Hard Iron was just a little over a length behind your top choice last out and it was his first route race in over a year. He seems to have his best races around two turns. Plus the jockey switch and drop in weight is an added bonus.

I've gotta play this horse at 8/1 or better.

Still playing at 5/1

Bigsmc 03-21-2008 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3
<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4
7: 1-7...5
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-2-3-9

2x3x3x4 = 64

That's $72 Doc.

Glad you're a Doc and not a Math Professor.....:D

pmacdaddy 03-21-2008 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
They really need to get to Belmont. They may as well re-name this phucking place to the Contessa Downs or something like that. There I feel better.
Thanks for listening.

Wed. April 30th. Counting down the days this year...

fpsoxfan 03-21-2008 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Still playing at 5/1

Looked good for a bit, but tough to beat the chalk today.

pointman 03-21-2008 02:06 PM

late pk 4:

6- 2,8
7- 1,5,6
8- 1,2,5
9- 2,9

Good luck!

pointman 03-21-2008 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Wed. April 30th. Counting down the days this year...


Can't wait to they get back to Belmont.

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
Looked good for a bit, but tough to beat the chalk today.

Looks like it's a little windy today.

Oh well the place money was solid.

Coach Pants 03-21-2008 02:25 PM

Race 6

Small Across The Board Wager On Dynamic Kip


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