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-   -   3/14: Gulfstream (6th-9th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20874)

Kasept 03-14-2008 05:43 AM

3/14: Gulfstream (6th-9th)
 
Thursday Aqueduct 6th race early SCR/CHG jockey switch to Dominguez should have set off alarm bells on winner Tuner Up Wisely, a 4th time starter switched to Asmussen after 2 tries under Linda Rice. Blew away poor band of state breds and ruined an otherwise good afternoon of tabs. 'Most Likely' runners scored with three straight exactas thereafter ($11.30; $24.10; $23.70) and a $37.25 P3 run, but the $210.50 Quad was the play that I needed to make the afternoon profitable. Hope you did well...

Gulfstream has an interesting late P4 today which is the focus, and note the Fair Grounds 6th today which features Riley Tucker and some other noteable sophomores going an ALW mile..


GULFSTREAM


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Knights Cross 5-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Lettie's Relic 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Gran Prospector 6-1 8th
Exotics Add: #7 Cloud King 15-1 5th


7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Safe Play 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 Hot Sunrise 6-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Catalissa 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Cherokee Heat 4-1 5th


8th: OC/N$Y, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Miss Lucifer 5-2
Best Value: #6 Pretoria Light 15-1
Next Best: #8 Carriage Trail 6-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #7 All is Vanity 5-1 WON


9th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Noble Cherokee 5-2
Best Value: #5 Spotlight Scam 5-1
Next Best: #3 Tricky Vaquero 10-1
Exotics Add: #7 Uncle Emil 6-1


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4
7: 2-3-9-10
8: 3-6-8
9: 2-5

2x4x3x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 03-14-2008 10:11 AM

GULFSTREAM PARK CHANGES

FRIDAY MAR.14 , 2008
SUN, BEAUTIFUL, 80"S

TRACK // FAST
TURF // FIRM-RAIL 36 FEET

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1 SCR. # 1A(POE) SILVER BABE
1 JOCKEY # 3 D. BORRACO


4 # 2 FIRST TIME LASIX
4 SCR. # 9 CARL'S COURT


6 RAIL AT 36 FEET
6 JOCKEY # 11 J. LEZCANO


8 RAIL AT 36 FEET
8 SCR. # 9 A DIFFERENT TUNE


9 SCR. # 1 FLYING MONGOOSE

jms62 03-14-2008 11:42 AM

I'll take a crack at it TGIF

1,2,4,6/3,9/1,5,6/2,9

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-14-2008 11:55 AM

beware of the 1 and 4 in the first the 1 was chucks and was very sick..the 4 alxander cutting back in dist 0-60......fyi

jms62 03-14-2008 12:15 PM

thanks for the tip point taken with the 1.. I'll recast

2,4,5,6/3,9/1,5,6/2,9

Kasept 03-14-2008 12:18 PM

I think you guys are at cross purposes...

Hooves was talking about first race of day... JMS about late P4... Or maybe I'm seeing it wrong?

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-14-2008 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I think you guys are at cross purposes...

Hooves was talking about first race of day... JMS about late P4... Or maybe I'm seeing it wrong?

yes il chime out..as dutrow moves horse up..:eek: :cool:

jms62 03-14-2008 12:32 PM

I thought he meant the 1st leg of the Pick 4... I don't have my PP with me only my spreadsheet from my numbers crunching... Hooves which is it ?

Kasept 03-14-2008 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
I thought he meant the 1st leg of the Pick 4... I don't have my PP with me only my spreadsheet from my numbers crunching... Hooves which is it ?

J,

He was refering to the first race of the day... NOT the first race of the late P4 (the 6th)... You were fine with the 1-2-4-6.

jms62 03-14-2008 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
J,

He was refering to the first race of the day... NOT the first race of the late P4 (the 6th)... You were fine with the 1-2-4-6.

Thanks for clearing that up.. Back on 1,2,4,6/3,9/1,5,6/2,9

SentToStud 03-14-2008 02:13 PM

Letties Relic (Steve's p-4 user in the 6th) is interesting. I'd have expected a drop and back to dirt from the trainer. If he's dead on the board, which in this race is > 12-1, I'll pass. Otherwise....

jms62 03-14-2008 02:37 PM

:confused: If there is a reason that you like him and you are seeing things different than the masses, why change your mind. With that rational you will miss out on some big scores over the course of your career. Wouldn't you rather have a 10 % hit rate at 25.00 than a 30% hit rate at 4.00 ?

SentToStud 03-14-2008 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
:confused: If there is a reason that you like him and you are seeing things different than the masses, why change your mind. With that rational you will miss out on some big scores over the course of your career. Wouldn't you rather have a 10 % hit rate at 25.00 than a 30% hit rate at 4.00 ?

Well, aside from the fact that exactly two of Dwoskin's last 75 winners have paid over $22 and aside from the fact both of those were droppers, no. No reason at all. Thankfully, he was playable to me and I made a decent sized wager.

WarranT 03-14-2008 05:14 PM

last race super sure was yummy, i do love those tbreds now

i can cash on anything! bring on turtle racing baby!


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