Derby Trail Forums - First run at the futures bet....

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First run at the futures bet....

1)Colonel John- If i can get at least 20/1 just like the breeding and the way he has handled 2 turns. I know it was on poly but just something i like about this one.
2)Court Vision-I was at CD when he won the Iriquis and was impressed with the fact that you could actually see the horse speed up coming down the stretch he wasn't just passing tired horses he was running by them. I know remsen came back low but once again love the breeding and his spin at CD. Would like to get 20/1 on him.
3)Cowboy Cal-love his races on T and i know its a risk but it appears to me that the horse does have talent. Would need at least 40-1
4)Dennis of Cork- the mystery horse as far as i see it. only run 2x but he did stretch out in the slop and won ok. Not a dominant wet track pedigree i dont think so maybe even more impressive?Would need 40-1
5)Majestic Warrior- the forgotten horse after the champagne dont knwo what went wrong there and the fact that it was his 1st stretch out bothers me but love the breeding and think can get a decent number. Need 25-1
6)Monba- My fav so far. i love the way he was eating into the lead in Calif and the fractions were actually speeding up no slowing down so he made up that much ground into those quick fractions. Bred to run forever. Need 20-1
7)Yankee Bravo- TOTAL STAB HERE just based on the 2 races that i have seen love the excelleration into the lane.Bred ok for distance. Need 50-1
8)Zhumor- his races at a distance on fast ground dont embarrass him at all and the breeding is there to get the distance worry about him being too close to pace but we will see. Need 30-1

Well that is what i have come up with. Are the odds that i need too high? i worry that some horses are just going to get hammerred and i just cant take a horse even Monba at 15-1 its just too far out from the big dance.

Constructive criticism of the picks and odds placement are fine but if i mispelled something or you have some smart ass comment i can do without that. Im looking for some real insight here. thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac

1)Colonel John- If i can get at least 20/1 just like the breeding and the way he has handled 2 turns. I know it was on poly but just something i like about this one. currently 25-1...one to benefit from fast fractions
2)Court Vision-I was at CD when he won the Iriquis and was impressed with the fact that you could actually see the horse speed up coming down the stretch he wasn't just passing tired horses he was running by them. I know remsen came back low but once again love the breeding and his spin at CD. Would like to get 20/1 on him. currently 13-1...tremendous upside, won on both dirt surfaces
3)Cowboy Cal-love his races on T and i know its a risk but it appears to me that the horse does have talent. Would need at least 40-1 currently 29-1...underlay & looks like sticking to turf
4)Dennis of Cork- the mystery horse as far as i see it. only run 2x but he did stretch out in the slop and won ok. Not a dominant wet track pedigree i dont think so maybe even more impressive?Would need 40-1 currently 54-1...need to see step up in stakes
5)Majestic Warrior- the forgotten horse after the champagne dont knwo what went wrong there and the fact that it was his 1st stretch out bothers me but love the breeding and think can get a decent number. Need 25-1 currently 24-1...didn't like his last as a 2yr. wait on this one
6)Monba- My fav so far. i love the way he was eating into the lead in Calif and the fractions were actually speeding up no slowing down so he made up that much ground into those quick fractions. Bred to run forever. Need 20-1 currently 30-1...love this one too, may be the best of bunch
7)Yankee Bravo- TOTAL STAB HERE just based on the 2 races that i have seen love the excelleration into the lane.Bred ok for distance. Need 50-1 currently 42-1...seen worst longshots
8)Zhumor- his races at a distance on fast ground dont embarrass him at all and the breeding is there to get the distance worry about him being too close to pace but we will see. Need 30-1 currently 87-1...you get your price here!

Well that is what i have come up with. Are the odds that i need too high? i worry that some horses are just going to get hammerred and i just cant take a horse even Monba at 15-1 its just too far out from the big dance.

Constructive criticism of the picks and odds placement are fine but if i mispelled something or you have some smart ass comment i can do without that. Im looking for some real insight here. thanks.

Odds at 11pm Thursday.....I've got no problem putting a buck or two on anything with upside at 20-1 or better.
No need to go crazy in round #1

A lot of people think futures are sucker bets bet I have actually had quite a bit of success/luck with them. The three that I really want to play in this first pool are:

Cowboy Cal (Need 25-1)
Z Humor (Need 35-1)
Tale of Ekati (Need 30-1)

Will hammer these 3 horses if by Sunday afternoon the odds are in my favor. Also hoping that Pyro loses Sat. so his odds are decent and will play if 15-1 or better.

If for some reason Anak Nakal or Monba offer greater than 40-1 then I might jump in on them as well.

Am i totally missing someothing on zhumor???? Why in the world would this horse be 87-1 even though it is early.

Best of luck to all.

Are there any numbers that show how many horses in the 1st pool actually make it to derby. I think i read that in the 9 years they have been doing this the winner has been offerred in the 1st pool as an individual bet in 6 of them. That sounds pretty amazing too me that these guys can do that well wiht the winners. Im curious if anyone has done any research on the overall numbers of how many have made it to the actual race from the 1st pool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Because it's february, the Derby is months away and he's a huge longshot to even make the gate, let alone win. That's what i was trying to say in my post.

The real reason is that no horse beginning with the letter "Z" has won in 84 years, since Zev did it in 1923.

Just wanted to get a jump on the other angle-players! ;>)

--Dunbar

Two horses I am betting on are Barrier Reef and Roman Commander

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac

Am i totally missing someothing on zhumor???? Why in the world would this horse be 87-1 even though it is early.

Listen at 87-1 it's worth a deuce, if you like like something...play it! :) do what you think is right...even if it's February ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac

Check out the history of the Derby wagering pool @ www.kentuckyderby.com, click on the future pool link...it's should tell the history there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Just so you know, I wasn't trying to talk him off betting. he asked for feedback and I gave it.

Same here.

Anyone know what the take out is?

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Anyone know what the take out is?

Found it - 16%