12/31: Santa Anita ($153k C/O)
 

Caught the chalky P4 at the Big A Sunday ($65/$1) but can only point to bad judgement, ticket stucture and budget choice for missing the pocket change P6 ($2,675). Those that wonder why there is so much consternation over 'supertrainers' like Steve Asmussen need only look at how I was taken in by his Staid in the first leg of the sextet.

On her way to career maiden status, Staid had run well enough two back to make me think she was primed for a big effort for the high profile connections in an attempt to get her diploma before turning 3yo Tuesday. Her running style looked like a plus; her 9-2 morning line looked like a solid value if you believed it was to be her day; and Asmussen is in the midst of a year end push to nab the trainer wins title from Scott Lake.

But trying to single her was a foolhardy gambit in a race where there were at least two others in Contessa's Quixotic Lassie and Albertrani's Crane Bay that I believed capable. Firster Chicks Are Better was the Exotics Add, and probably deserved to win the race. A $236.25 trifecta was a reward for the overall race opinion, but Staid ran a non-threatening 5th.

The "Asmussen Factor" skews horseplayer judgement and slim-jims your bankroll. Just as Todd Pletcher's runners went crazily overbet during his protracted cold streak between August-October, the ominous presence of Asmussen runners, and/or erratic-performing Contessa 'move ups', amounts to an unwanted added test of mettle and deduction.

Leaving my 7th race 3rd choice Quick and Easy off the play was strictly a budgetary decision and doomed the run at a consolation in the "6" as racing came to a close for 2007 in New York. Overall, it was a very good year in the Empire State on the oval, and with the franchise battle looking to come to a satisfying conclusion with a settlement announcement sometime Monday, 2008 should be even better.

Santa Anita has a P6 carry on New Year's Eve, and it looks mighty tough with three cheap events comprising the first half the skien. But what the hell... Let's play it anyway!


SANTA ANITA

Rolling Doubles through R7; .10 Supers in all...

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3)

Best Value: #1 Stormy Tuesday 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Zee Topper 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady Disdain 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #4 Megan's Mia 10-1 5th


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Beltline Jack 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #7 Ghost Actor 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 War Scandal 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #6 The Rye Man 5-1 5th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (P4,P3)

Best Value: #10 Golden Gorilla 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Distinctive Afleet 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 The Royals Court 7-2 2nd
Exotics Add: #4 Mr. Excessive 3-1 5th


6th: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Princess Traci 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Elsie Jo 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Clever Lady 4-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 Onefunsonofagun 8-1 2nd


7th: 3rd Impressive Luck H., 3+, 6.5-DHT

NOTE: With SCR of T.D. Vance, add #3 Double Action 15-1.. 7th

Best Value: #6 Canteen 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #1 SCR
Next Best: #8 Quietly Mine 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Night Chapter 4-1 3rd


8th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f

Best Value: #7 CHEROKEE TEAR 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 L. A. Phil 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Stand Tall 6-1 4th
Exotics Add: #6 South Coast 5-1 5th
High 5 Play: #9 Cactus Lightening 15-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-8
4: 1-7
5: 2-6-10
6: 1-2-9
7: 3-8
8: 7

2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-4-6-10
6: 1-2-3
7: 3-8
8: 3-7

4x3x2x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

I just looked at SA for the hell of it and it friggin impossible today. In the last, I like #5 Stand Tall and #6 South Coast.

I think it HAS to pay today also because of the end of year books and such. Not 100% on this.

Furthermore, if I had tons of money to piss away and was looking for end of year action, I would be playing the below. :)

3: 3,4,5,8,9
4: 8
5: 2,6,10
6: 2,3,8,9
7: 8
8: 3,5,6

And MORESO...I like the below sequence to pay about $125 to $150 per $1

6: 2,3,8,9
7: 8
8: 3,5,6

Sequence changes..
 

Race 7:Scratch #1 T.D. Vance; #6 +2 Overweight

Race 8:Scratch #10 Cherokee Law

6TH)ALL
7th)NIGHT CHAPTER
8TH)CHEROKEE TEAR

6TH)ONEFUNSONOFAGUN
7TH)NIGHT CHAPTER
8TH)ALL

6TH)ONEFUNSONOFGUN
7TH)ALL
8TH)L.A.PHIL,S TALL,S COAST,C TEAR,S COMIC,C LIGHTING

Thanks ScubsBro...gonna give them a go at the Reservation!!

my 8 buck toss

8
2/7
7/10
3
5
3 id rather be lucky than good..........and this card has too many maybees......... good luck

YA GOTTA THINK I used up quite a bit of my "luck balance" getting that sane horse to beat the droppers last night.The fact that Rain dance horse ran so well,just shows ya the huge difference between m32,and anything other higher level maiden race.I am so very thankful that Bejarano took the 9 so wide right exactly where you can't be wide.That was the horse with enough juice to come get me,but when you go that wide,the horse will change their minds,and call it a day.That horse had enough run to get me though.Bejarano wasn't sharp yesterday.

Race 1
 

#3 Feel Ridge


Great catch on the late pick 3 yesterday Scuds

Love the fact that Steve has Cherokee Tear in capitals. Been waiting to playback Baffert's charge. I'm hoping that the extra 1/2 furlong means the difference. Will be singling him in the pick 3/4 and some heavy backing in the WP column. Trifector key as well.

rACE 5
2,4,5,10 // 5,8,9 // 2,4,5,8 // 7

Race 6
1,5,8,9 // 4,5,8 // 7
Heavy pick 3
5,8 // 5,8 // 7

Race 8
WP 7
Tri wheel
7 with 3,6,8,9
Best of luck to those playing on the final day of the year!!

games f*cking hard enough...I sure don't need my horse standing in gate mixing Kool-Aid while the others take off running.

Just one play to end the year.

R7

#5 Night Chapter
#8 Quietly Mine

Cold Exacta 5 8

Good Racing Luck

I wish TD Vance hadn't been scratched, as the odds will now be lower on my choice, Unusual Suspect, who I thought should have been the ml fave to begin with, couldn't understand the ml odds of 6-1

In the finale, which seems to have loads of possibles, I side with the #2, Why Knot Us

why is megan's mia the favorite????:confused: :confused: :confused:

Has to be double carryover now...

Go out and celebrate the new year tonight or stay in and handicap?

My guess is there's going to be a carry-over to Thursday. Two huge longshots in the 4th ($27.20) then the monster in the 5th ($73.40).. Been a very tough card to say the least. So far I am 0-5 :mad: for the day.

I USED 3,5,7 IN doubles to ONEFUNSONOFAGUN.So,ain't using her in late p3.Gunna take all but her in the 6th race,and single Night Chapter,and then use
L.A.PHIL,S TALL,S COAST,C TEAR,S COMIC,C LIGHTING in final leg.

6th)1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9
7th)5
8th)3,5,6,7,8,9

high five
 

going to keep attacking this high five.

7 // 6 // 1 3 5 8 // 1 2 3 5 8 // 1 2 3 5 8 $48
7 // 1 3 5 8 // 6 // 1 2 3 5 8 // 1 2 3 5 8 $48

Almost,man she gave me everything.Got $4 exacta tijuana on top of her,but that was almost $600 double.

Now,see Night CHAPTER IS COVERED IN late pick 3.So take everybody else(except chalky 8 horse) in 7th race to Cherokee in doubles.

Last bet of the year, Race 8: 5-6 exacta box:D