Churchill 7th Sunday, excellent grass allowance
 

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...cher_93186.pdf

Very Subtle Stakes feature: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...cher_93187.pdf

My first reaction was to be happy with Yates Black Cat, but Bully For You may be slipping under the radar at 15-1 ml

The Very Subtle Stakes is interesting, a couple of interesting horses who've done well for new trainers, Excellerent and Adhrythym, and possibly Generosity.
I'll tab Excellerent

i like lord carmen from the clouds

#9 The key horse in the race is Silver Whistle.
-Sometimes a horse like this is said to have "pack tendancies" or is subject to it's running style to the point where it is going get a minor award in any half-decent race. Other times a horse who has been running Grade 2 and Grade 3 vs. solid company will crush an allowance field like this.
-I am going to say that Silver Whistle may have about as good a chance as anyone in this race , but it isn't more than 25%.

#11 Heat of the Night wasn't so great over in Africa. Pletcher got him and even during the move-up period of his barn, this guy coudln't really break through. His lone stakes/lone 9furlong attempt was a dud. Still he fits this race well albeit as an underlay.


I am going to play against a 911 and hope that Maroon, Kentucky Man or Bully has a say.
maybe a exacta box 9,11 over 3,8,10
or a couple supers like 3,8,10,11 w/9 w/1,3,4,5,8,10,11 w/1,2,3,4,5,8,10,11

Entry looks very formidable today -- Cajun jockey connection, Albarado & Theriot, could both hit board...

But with that angle you gotta consider Borel, Guidry, Lanerie, Desourmeaux, and Hernandez with Bayou State roots as well. I agree this should unfold as excellent, very competitive turf race.

Flashstorm
 

I like the 7 here. Horse has been running against monsters and if turf pedegree comes through style should put him right there.

Spyder

Yates Black Cat pays $11.80, I should have been happy with that.

Is it me or has this current CD meet been more random than the Poly madness at Kee? This is an added problem with the synthetic tracks; you not only have to figure out who will handle the transition to Poly, but figure out who had fraudulent form on the carpet and who's wasn't. Its getting to be too much guesswork. I think I'll just play NY and Maryland.

I completely agree. Yesterday was the first time I played Churchill with any great seriousness (no Youbet for CD keeps me out) and I found it just what you said- random. Maybe I was peeved about Aqueduct cancelling or something but I found some of the results really head-scratching.

I did bet Top Royelle though and thought we had it for a while. 'Twas a good run nonetheless.

NT

I have really been focusing on pre-poly dirt form. I didn't play today but yesterday I hit a few nice prices at Hawthorne and CD by crossing out poor poly performances and focusing on there dirt results, especially over the track where they were running.

the first on turf maidens with bad synthetic form can still be a turf horse.
Synthetic success doesn't necessarily translate to dirt success. Synthetic Success precluded by turf experience translates to pretty good turf form...
Right now the jockeys are important at Churchill. Know thier styles and know who is riding well.
That Dylan Williams is tough because he can run dead last or he can get out on a pace and put a bum horse in the money with a fearless ride. Hernandez is overlooked. Sterling is horrible. Kent is class , Borel is one of the best when hot. Leparoux strikes the front with the right horse. Bejarono is solid. Mena is solid on the dirt only...

Know the jockeys at CD as well.

Mena can ride on turf or dirt.....

But back to the subject at hand. What we see now with so many AP and Kee runners at CD is horses who have ONLY synthetic form. I agree that it doesn't necessarily translate to dirt, but you can't automatically throw it out either. Maybe what SoCal did makes some sense now.....since all they are going to be running on is synthetic or grass, you don't have the guesswork that we're seeing at CD now. I guess one option is to eliminate playing all the Mdns, NW1X and NW2 claiming races where many of the entrants have very limited real dirt experience. Probably should kiss the P3s/P4s goodbye and scale back the number of wagers,

Actually I find CD to be the fairest track in America. The key is going back to basics- trips, pace, etc. I think the fact that EVERY race is full makes it seem more random than it really is because the prices are high (a good thing!)

Why is CD racing on a Tuesday??

Election day

To celebrate the defeat of a useless Governor

you like Mena?

I guess I like him, he seems pretty solid to me.

Yeah I do. He started in Chicago and I thought he just wasn't getting enough good mounts. He decided to go to Kentucky during the CD spring meet in 2006 and I thought he'd win the Ellis meet, which he did. He's capable but the colony at the CD meetings is pretty deep so he's not likely to crack the top 5.