BC Analysis: Byk Style
 

Here is my analysis of every BC race, Byk style with a Scav twist. These plays are focused on DD, P3, P4 and exactas. Considered it Fast/Firm. Good luck to all.

8th: F/M Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #1 Miss Macy Sue - 6/1
Most Likely: #7 La Traviata - 5/2
Exotics Use: #10 Baroness Thatcher - 12/1
Exotics Use: #4 Maryfield - 15/1

8: 7
9: 4,5,8,9,10
10: 1,3

9th: Juv. Turf, 8f Turf
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Traingle - 10/1
Most Likely: #8 Achill Island - 7/2
Exotics Use: #9 Prussian - 3/1
Exotics Use: #5 Strike the Deal - 9/2

BOMB Alert: #10 Preachin Man - 50/1: Has some solid dirt figures and while not bred for the lawn, his progression and fig power merit a look

10th: Dirt Mile, 8f and 70 yards Dirt
Best Value: #3 Wanderin Boy - 8/1
Most Likely: #1 Discreet Cat - 2/1
Exotics Use: #6 Gottcha Gold - 8/1
Exotics Use: #7 Park Avenue Ball - 15/1

4th: Juv Fillies, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb - 30/1
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell - 5/1
Exotics Use: #8 Izarra - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy - 10/1 (would have been 'Most Likely' but she is pretty much screwed that far out, has a beautiful sheet)

4: 8,9,10,12
5: 2,4,7,9,10,11,13
6: 2,9
7: 1,8

5th: Juv Colts, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Slew's Tiznow - 15/1
Most Likely: #7 Pyro - 6/1
Exotics Use: #9 Old Man Buck - 20/1
Exotics Use: #2 War Pass - 5/2

Note: #10 Tale of Ekati (7/2) - Obviously live with his monster work but just don't know if he ran his race before. Bred to love the slop and should be included on all tickets

5: 2,4,7,9,10
6: 2,7,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8

6th: F/M Turf, 11f Turf
Best Value: #12 Precious Kitten - 30/1
Most Likely: #9 Danzon - 12/1
Exotics Use: #2 Honey Ryder 9/2
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina - 12/1

6: 2,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,8,12

7th: Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Talent Search - 15/1
Most Likely: #1 Smokey Stover - 7/2
Exotics Use: #8 Benny the Bull - 6/1
Exotics Use: #6 Commentator - 12/1

7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13
9: 5,8

8th: Mile: 8f Turf
Best Value: #12 Purim - 20/1
Most Likely: #13 Excellent Art - 3/1
Exotics Use: #14 Remarkable News - 12/1
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Storm - 8/1

8: 5,9,12,13,14
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 7
11: 2,3,4

8: 3,5,8
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4 (I would include with the above ticket if your funds allow)
11: 2,3,4

Note: This race is absolutely impossible. All but the Rebellion, Icy Atlantic, My Typhoon, and Silent Name have a shot at winning. This is a race I would recommend going as deep as you possibly can because the favorite might end up at 6/1

9th: Distaff, 9f Dirt
Best Value: #8 Octave - 10/1
Most Likely: #5 Lady Joanne - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Hystericallady - 8/1
Exotics Use: #4 Ginger Punch - 7/2

9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4,7
11: 2,3,4

Note: Hystericallady would have been my best bet of the day given she has a very powerful sheet (One that shows she is slower on poly but explodes on real dirt) but given her post, she is hard to play out there

10th: Turf, 12f Turf
Best Value: #4 Shamdinan - 20/1
Most Likely: #7 Dylan Thomas - 7/5
Exotics Use: #2 Red Rocks - 7/2
Exotics Use: #6 English Channel - 5/2

Note: Shamdinan is even a better play with it predicted to be soft, he relished the going at Arlington which I think was more towards yielding then good

11th: Classic, 10f Dirt
Best Value: #3 Any Given Saturday - 3/1
Most Likely: #4 Curlin - 3/1
Exotics Use: #2 Street Sense - 3/1
Exotics Use: #1 Lawyer Ron - 5/2

scav - no love come on man - lear's princess is going to get it done, high finance may suprise, awesome gem is going to run huge at 30/1 or more in the classic make sure you use him
Dream Rush will be in tough i'm stayin away and irish Smoke has distance concerns

Scav good job..putting it out there..BB of the day?

Scav,

From my preliminary looks through things, and from reading your choices -- you and I are going to have some VERY similar tickets come Saturday.

I'll be doing some updating of this based on the sloppy/soft going that is predicted. F'n rain.

Scav, I'm sorry to tell you that I agree with many of your picks (especially the last 3 or 4 races). So, I hope I didn't just jinx you!

Here is my analysis of every BC race, Byk style with a Scav twist. These plays are focused on DD, P3, P4 and exactas. Considered it Fast/Firm. Good luck to all.

8th: F/M Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #1 Miss Macy Sue - 6/1 = 3rd
Most Likely: #7 La Traviata - 5/2
Exotics Use: #10 Baroness Thatcher - 12/1
Exotics Use: #4 Maryfield - 15/1 = 1st = $18.00

8: 7
9: 4,5,8,9,10
10: 1,3

9th: Juv. Turf, 8f Turf
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Traingle - 10/1
Most Likely: #8 Achill Island - 7/2 = 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Prussian - 3/1
Exotics Use: #5 Strike the Deal - 9/2

BOMB Alert: #10 Preachin Man - 50/1: Has some solid dirt figures and while not bred for the lawn, his progression and fig power merit a look

10th: Dirt Mile, 8f and 70 yards Dirt
Best Value: #3 Wanderin Boy - 8/1
Most Likely: #1 Discreet Cat - 2/1 - 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Gottcha Gold - 8/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Park Avenue Ball - 15/1

4th: Juv Fillies, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb - 30/1
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell - 5/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Izarra - 6/1
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy - 10/1 (would have been 'Most Likely' but she is pretty much screwed that far out, has a beautiful sheet)

4: 8,9,10,12
5: 2,4,7,9,10,11,13
6: 2,9
7: 1,8

5th: Juv Colts, 8.5f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Slew's Tiznow - 15/1
Most Likely: #7 Pyro - 6/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Old Man Buck - 20/1
Exotics Use: #2 War Pass - 5/2 - 1st

Note: #10 Tale of Ekati (7/2) - Obviously live with his monster work but just don't know if he ran his race before. Bred to love the slop and should be included on all tickets

5: 2,4,7,9,10
6: 2,7,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8

6th: F/M Turf, 11f Turf
Best Value: #12 Precious Kitten - 30/1
Most Likely: #9 Danzon - 12/1
Exotics Use: #2 Honey Ryder 9/2 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina - 12/1

6: 2,9,12
7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,8,12

7th: Sprint, 6f Dirt
Best Value: #4 Talent Search - 15/1 -3rd
Most Likely: #1 Smokey Stover - 7/2
Exotics Use: #8 Benny the Bull - 6/1 - 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Commentator - 12/1

7: 1,4,6,8
8: 3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13
9: 5,8

8th: Mile: 8f Turf
Best Value: #12 Purim - 20/1
Most Likely: #13 Excellent Art - 3/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #14 Remarkable News - 12/1
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Storm - 8/1

8: 5,9,12,13,14
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 7
11: 2,3,4

8: 3,5,8
9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4 (I would include with the above ticket if your funds allow)
11: 2,3,4

Note: This race is absolutely impossible. All but the Rebellion, Icy Atlantic, My Typhoon, and Silent Name have a shot at winning. This is a race I would recommend going as deep as you possibly can because the favorite might end up at 6/1

9th: Distaff, 9f Dirt
Best Value: #8 Octave - 10/1 - 3rd
Most Likely: #5 Lady Joanne - 6/1 - 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Hystericallady - 8/1 - 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ginger Punch - 7/2 - 1st

$1 Exa = $70.80
$1 Tri = $534.70
$1 Super = $3,418.50

9: 4,5,8,12
10: 4,7
11: 2,3,4

Note: Hystericallady would have been my best bet of the day given she has a very powerful sheet (One that shows she is slower on poly but explodes on real dirt) but given her post, she is hard to play out there

10th: Turf, 12f Turf
Best Value: #4 Shamdinan - 20/1 -2nd
Most Likely: #7 Dylan Thomas - 7/5
Exotics Use: #2 Red Rocks - 7/2 -3rd
Exotics Use: #6 English Channel - 5/2 -1st

Note: Shamdinan is even a better play with it predicted to be soft, he relished the going at Arlington which I think was more towards yielding then good

$1 Exa = $76
$1 Tri = $282.70

11th: Classic, 10f Dirt
Best Value: #3 Any Given Saturday - 3/1
Most Likely: #4 Curlin - 3/1 - 1st
Exotics Use: #2 Street Sense - 3/1
Exotics Use: #1 Lawyer Ron - 5/2

For some reason I can't edit my above post so I just copied it to keep track