SA C/O Contest: Cassie, AJ go 5/6!
 

Wednesday's carry at Santa Anita looks murderous, but I'm sure the intrepid are ready to take a shot... Pool sure to reach $2.5MM...

Urge those entering to try Crist-style multiple ticket approach to capitalize on the objective of these exersizes: improving our approach to the big P6 pots...

Sunday's Belmont carry was an example of how the A-B-C-X ranking and construction can work. Genuine Devotion (5-2), Melissa Jo (3-1) and Pick Six (6-1) were all horses that in my view were "A's", and the three were "Most Likely" (Melissa & Six) or "Best Value" in the case of Devotion in the Selections.. I didn't care for Sew Slippery (4-1) and Acclimate (3-1), but they obviously could have been an "A" or "B" or many people's plays.

That leaves Shapira (8.50-1) as the lone price in the sequence. Those utilizing a multiple ticket approach might have had the 5 winners as "A" plays on the backup tick, and in all liklihood have included the Mott-Castro runner (Shapira) on that 9th race that featured your "C's".

For those that aren't familiar:


1.) Rank horses in each race:

A=Must use
B=Serious consider
C=Outsider with chance
X=Tossouts


2.) Structure main ticket featuring your A & B horses (Example):

Leg A: AAB
Leg B: AB
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: AB
Leg F: AABB

3x2x1x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


3.) Structure 6 backups featuring your A's, dropping B's, adding C's:


Backup 1 with Leg A "C's"

Leg A: CC
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x1x2 = 8 x $2 = $16


Backup 2 with Leg B "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: CCC
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x3x1x2x1x2 = 24 x $2 = $48


Backup 3 with Leg C "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: CC
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x2x2x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 4 with Leg D "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: CCCC
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x4x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 5 with Leg E "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: CC
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 6 with Leg F "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: CCC

2x1x1x2x1x3 = 12 x $2 = $24


Total play:

Main: $192
Back1: $16
Back2: $48
Back3: $32
Back4: $32
Back5: $32
Back6: $24

Total: $376

What you're doing is trying to limit your wasteful combinations. (Wasteful in that every horse you use in a "main" ticket.. that you're putting in that has less than a reasonable win chance.. is driving the cost of the ticket up by the multiples involved.) By placing thos horses in isolated backup tickets, you're maximizing your investment by focusing the "main" ticket on the ones with the best opportunity to win in your opinion. The backups are there to cover you in the isolated case where your opinion is correct in all but one of the races.. as might have been the case Sunday with Shapira had those other five winners been on your "main" play...

(If you have questions, feel free to ask in the Contest thread. I'll try to answer as best I can, and perhaps BTW can jump in as well. Visit the original P6 Symposium Threads in the Hatton Reading Room for expanded discusion of the concept and commentary from Andy..
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9062)

Steve,

What's are bankroll for the contest? Also, did you see my PM?

Thanks,

Spyder

Let's make this another $2,500 bankroll.. It's a very tough sequence... (And I saw PM and will respond.. In short, very cool!)

That's me (had to look it up though)...

After reading the Crist book (thanks Steve!), he(Crist) makes a very compelling case to use the multi-ticket method. I plan on implementing it in the near future (like maybe this contest), just didn't have time when putting together the Belmont ticket. --Anyone who hasn't read that book should review Kasept's "cliff notes" on the multi-ticket fomulations, it's certainly worthy of consideration and every handicapper should keep an open mind on other wagering ideas.

With $2,500 a multiple ticket approach is definitely in the cards.


Tried to take multiple ticket approach at BEL, but ultimately opted for a. "cave man" ticket. Very surprising how quick $800 goes when putting an AB ticket together....

Just a thought from a handicapping moron...

As a novice "capper" I steer away from P4 - P6. I read Crist's book and understand the concept. The problem is correctly categorizing the horses into A,B,C,X.

I'm a DT and ATRB addict as I find this to be the best horse racing info available anywhere. I'll continue to read/listen and hopefully be able use this logic in the future.

Max C.,

This is the perfect opportunity to give it a whirl. Doesn't cost anything and going through the exercise of categorizing the horses and putting the tickets together can only help you in your future handicapping. It's also a lot of fun.

Spend the mythical $2,500 and you will learn a ton.

Good luck.

Yeah Max. Don't cost nothin....

Just make sure to check all the winners versus your grades. If any of your X's come in, go back and see if there was something you missed.

Also, don't feel bad using some other people here's picks as a second check after you are done with your initial tickets. . Ofen opens my eyes to an angle I may have missed.

Good Luck!

Well,I think people need to take into account that g d plastic rail is gunna be out tomorrow (in that 5th race.) I think you best not overlook that horse on the rail(Dr Zaentz.) His form and style look a lot like his full sister's form(Mean Heat) before she got on the grass.She showed good turn of foot on the lawn at Del Mar.

22.54, 46.09, 1:10.67, 1:22.71, 1:34.90

This horse has a good tactical move that he showed last time(don't depend on him stopping on turf,)and with those rails out,he may be sprinting for that wire.If he is like his sister,then the others won't be able to make any mistakes.Obviously,the other Heat horse,the Frankel,and the Drysdale,all make sense.I don't see why the Hofmans horse doesn't have a good chance,but he has been lil chilly.I think most people are gunna cut this 1 horse out of their tickets,and I think that is the one thing I wouldn't do.Not with the rails out.I can easily see this horse getting 1st move on the 3 top choices.

Agree 100%, if you watch the replay of their last (the 1 & 8), the 8 is a toss. The 1 becomes a must use in some fashion. I expect an improved effort out of Frankel's runner + the 5, Dynaformer going sprint to route & turf. I think using the 1,3,5 should be enough.

Let the games begin......

Oak Tree Race 3-8
2,5,7/1,4,9/1,3,8/2,8,12/4,6,8/1,6,9 $1,458
3,4/4,9/3,8/2,12/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/2,3,6/3,8/2,12/4,8/1,6 $192
2,5/4,9/5,7/2,12/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/4,9/3,8/7,10/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/4,9/3,8/2,12/1,3,7/1,6 $192
2,5/4,9/3,8/2,12/4,8/3,5,10,11 $256
total= $2,482

thanks
Ron

$2,472 P6 play
 

2,7 // 3,4,9 // 3,8 // 2,7,8,12 // 2,4,7 // 1,5,11

2,4,5 // 4,6,7,9 // 1,7,8 // 2,7,8 // 3,6,7 // 5,11

4,7 // 3,7 // 1,3 // 2,7,12 // 2,4 // 1,11

2 // 4,9 // 8 // ALL // 7 // 5,11

7 // 3 // 3 // ALL // 2,4 // 1

Good Luck to All -- both virtual & real tickets tomorrow!

2,4,5,7 // 3,4,7 // 3,8 // 1,3,5,8 // 2,3,7,12 // 4 // 1,3,8

5 // 3,4 // 1,3, // 4,12 // 1,7 // 1

2,5,6 // 1,3,4,7 // 1,7 // 2 // 1 // 3

5 // 1,4,7,10 // 1,2 // 2,6 // 7 // 6

2 // 4 // 1,5,8 // 3,7,8,9 // 5,8 // 1

3,5 // 2,3,4 // 3 // 11 // 1 // 3,7,10

2494 $ total. Best of Luck to those actually playing this c/o.

In the last race,it's obviously an open race.The only thing I really notice that can help anyone is concerning Foxy Lady.She didn't like the turns at Fairplex,but she ran very well during the other parts of the race.That is a definite 2 turn filly.She seems to like to run on the inside(it's just that she was too dumb to make the 1st 2 turns.The last one,she seemed to do o.k. on.She is better than the 11 length deficit that she lost by.

I'll take a quick stab at this:

R3 2,3,6
R4 3,4,9
R5 1,3,5
R6 2,6,7,10
R7 4,7
R8 1,3,4,5

3X3X3X4X2X4=1064X$2=$2128

Good luck everyone

R 3: 4,5,7

R 4: 2,3,4,9,10

R 5: 2,3,8

R 6: 3,7,8

R 7: 3,4,7

R 8: 1,3,6 (#5 scratched, replacing with #1)
$2430

(also, I like the 6 horse in the 1st race, Extreme Notice)

I'll take a quick pick please.;)

Only half kidding. Not much time to take a hard look.

R3 2/4/5/7
R4 2/3/4/9
R5 3/5/7/9
R6 2/12
R7 1/4/7
R8 1/3/5

$2,304

good luck to all

Caspiano is a single for me in the fourth. I just think he is more talented than this bunch and should probably not be running for a tag. in his debut against MSW's he finished well when the winner was Barbeque Eddie who was clear by 4.5 lengths. Barbeque Eddie came back to run third in the Ancient Title! The third place finisher from the debut race, Their He Goes, came back to beat MSW's going down the hill and looking very good. Caspiano went up to Fairplex to break his maiden and was much the best taking pace pressure from 3-4 different horses around both turns and he finished with something in reserve and won easily, two good interim works since that. Like I said he just seems better than your typical N2L group. So....

5 6 7 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 4 6 7 8 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $2,304
2 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $192
$2,496 total

Key scratched brutalized me... Here is second try.

Main Ticket (A,B)

R3 - 2,4,5,6,7
R4 - 2,3,4
R5 - 1,3,5,7
R6 - 2,3,7,10,12
R7 - 4
R8 - 6,10

$1,200


C Covers

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 8 / 2,7,10,12 / 4 / 6,10
$144

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 8 / 4 / 6,10
$108

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 2,7,10,12 / 7,8 / 6,10
$864

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 2 / 4 / 1,3,11
$162

GRAND TOTAL $2,478