Early predictions for The Arc
 

Just for fun... anyone wanna make an early prediction?

I've said Vodka all along but I need to change my early pick to Peeping Fawn if she goes.....

Saddex to hit the board.

Possible.....

Authorized
Manduro
Zambezi Sun
Dylan Thomas
Soldier Of Fortune
Peeping Fawn
Mandesha
Meisho Samson (..... I believe he's sick right now but hopefully he'll be better)
Saddex
Youmzain
Scorpion

Zambezi or MANDURO!!

I'm still not sure. I love Manduro and i hope he wins, but he has so much speed, i'm not convinced he will stay 12 furlongs.

If it's good ground i will probably go for Dylan Thomas.

I like Soldier of Fortune in there, although Authorized looks tough but currently at 2-1 at Ladbrokes I can't take that price. Zambezi Sun sure is taking a ton of money. Interesting.

Manduro being out takes quite a gloss out of this race. I know a lot can change between now and October, but the ground was very fast in Paris yesterday, and that is almost unheard of. Most of western Europe has had next to no rain in the last month (what a change from the "summer")

It's quites possible that this year's Arc could be run on good or faster ground. If it is, Dylan Thomas will take a huge amount of beating.

He would still be my pick at the moment...... but it will probably change at least once before the big day :D

I'm starting to think he's got an awfully good shot.

Doctor Dino is now possible.....

Doctor Dino would add some spice to this race and would be in with a shot.

Well for one, the weathermen have been predicting a very dry autumn for most of western europe, any rain we have meant to had did not arrive.

Yesterday at Longchamp they raced on what some were calling a "firm" racing surface which is almost unheard of for the Paris track.

If it's going to become very soft it will have to start raining quickly and that doesn't look likely, certainly not this week anyway.

If Doctor Dino runs, he would add another G1 winner but IMO, would have no shot. I know he is an improving 5yo but he has to contend with a fair few rapidly improving 3yos and has to reverse form with Dylan Thomas from earlier on this year.
Id still stick with Zambezi knowing that Bary left a ton of work to do.

Each day we get closer to the Arc the more confident i become about Dylan Thomas.

I think there will have to be some serious rain to fall in a few days for the ground to become soft.

Longchamp were calling the ground "good" for Sunday's meeting, yet trainers and jockeys were all saying it was riding firm. The very fast ground has also been blamed for Manduro's injury, but that we will never know.

If the ground comes up the same on Arc day most of these might as well not show up. On fast ground, Dylan Thomas is a completely different horse.

Sagara possible.....

Interesting to hear Magnier AND Fallon both nominate France (more specifically the Arc) for Yeats :eek:

It's possible that Yeats, Scorpion and Dylan will all head there. Doesn't look like they are willing to take the risk with going to Melbourne this year.

If they are represented, it will probably just be Scorpion.

Getaway and Poet Laureate now possible.....

Passage of Time now possible.....

Looks like Peeping Fawn is done for the year but will be back next year.

Yeats or Septimus could join Soldier of Fortune and Dylan Thomas in the race.

Youmzain looks a likely starter also.

Left in at this point.....

Authorized
Soldier Of Fortune
Dylan Thomas
Yeats
Acapulco
Yellowstone
Archipenko
Red Rock Canyon
Zambezi Sun
Mandesha
Youmzain
Dragon Dancer
Saddex
Anton Chekhov
Sagara

If Red Rock runs, he could easily run 3rd or 4th, then run in a maiden the next week and run 2nd at 1-10.. I put a nice bit on Zambezi today so Im hoping that Bary has been telling the truth regarding how much he will come on from the Niel.

I love Red Rock..........

and you're right.... he could run into a place here and then get beaten in a maiden. But that's why i love him.

Love him too but i change my mind every day.....

Today I'm backing Soldier of Fortune or Saddex.

That'll change.....:)