Derby Trail Forums - 8/6: Saratoga (Day 12)

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8/6: Saratoga (Day 12)

Weather finally turned overnight with rain expected to continue.. With off day Tuesday and turf course hard, grass events may stay on today..

Pretty thrilling day Sunday despite 4th place finish by Sumwonlovesyou with nearly 70 Dee Tee partners, family and friends visiting the Spa. Hope all had a great weekend..

SARATOGA

PRE-CHANGES... May have a chance to update after track conditions announced..

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD)

1. #5 SCR
2. #8 Chunk of Love 7-2 WON
A. #1 Mutakaway 4-1 3rd
B. #6 Marco Groom 8-1 5th

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.75f-T (P3, P4)

1. #12 Madame Brillon 5-1 12th
2. #5 Brantley 3-1 3rd
A. #6 Double Dinghy Day 6-1 WON
B. #4 Kin to the Wind 15-1 4th

3rd: Weekend Surprise, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)

1. #4 Allude 5-2 2nd
2. #2 Dicey Girl 3-1 3rd
A. #1 Upscale Storm 15-1 7th
B. #6 Featherbed 3-1 WON

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3)

1. #3 Zee Zee 5-1 WON
2. #1e Pletcher entry 5-2 3rd
A. #9 African Violet 10-1 8th
B. #5 Bluegrass Girl 20-1 5th

5th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, GS)

1. #2e DUTROW ENTRY 5-2 Non-starter
2. #4 Calculator 10-1 2nd
A. #5 Running Dog 9-2 6th
B. #6 Precise Alloy 6-1 7th

6th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, DD)

1. #7 Do I Havea Witness 3-1 3rd
2. #5 Mister Fusaichi 5-2 WON
A. #1 Dugan 12-1 8th
B. #9 Runaway Banjo 8-1 5th

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, Super)

1. #2 Bound Notebook 7-2 2nd
2. #3 Disco's Son 4-1 5th
3. #5 Chatain 2-1 WON

LONGSHOTS/SUPER ADDS: #4 I'm Only Laughing 20-1 9th; #7 Court Folly 20-1 3rd

8th: 23rd Hall of Fame (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (DD)

1. #3 Distorted Reality 5-2 3rd
2. #6 Nobiz Like Shobiz 9-5 WON
3. #1 Marcavelly 2-1 2nd

9th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

1. #9 TWO TURN HALO 9-2 6th
2. #4 Western Sweep 4-1 WON
A. #6 Brown Eyed Belle 3-1 3rd
B. #5 Fighting Speedy 10-1 2nd

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #7 Earhart 12-1 5th

@$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-7
7: 2-3-4-5
8: 1-3-6
9: 9

3x4x3x1 x $1 = $36

Good luck!
Steve

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Weather finally turned overnight with rain expected to continue.. With off day Tuesday and turf course hard, grass events may stay on today..

Pretty thrilling day Sunday despite 4th place finish by Sumwonlovesyou with nearly 70 Dee Tee partners, family and friends visiting the Spa. Hope all had a great weekend..

SARATOGA

PRE-CHANGES... May have a chance to update after track conditions announced..

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD)

1. #5 Mt. Langfuhr 20-1
2. #8 Chunk of Love 7-2
A. #1 Mutakaway 4-1
B. #6 Marco Groom 8-1

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.75f-T (P3, P4)

1. #12 Madame Brillon 5-1
2. #5 Brantley 3-1
A. #6 Double Dinghy Day 6-1
B. #4 Kin to the Wind 15-1

3rd: Weekend Surprise, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)

1. #4 Allude 5-2
2. #2 Dicey Girl 3-1
A. #1 Upscale Storm 15-1
B. #6 Featherbed 3-1

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3)

1. #3 Zee Zee 5-1
2. #1e Pletcher entry 5-2
A. #9 African Violet 10-1
B. #5 Bluegrass Girl 20-1

5th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, GS)

1. #2e DUTROW ENTRY 5-2
2. #4 Calculator 10-1
A. #5 Running Dog 9-2
B. #6 Precise Alloy 6-1

6th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, DD)

1. #7 Do I Havea Witness 3-1
2. #5 Mister Fusaichi 5-2
A. #1 Dugan 12-1
B. #9 Runaway Banjo 8-1

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, Super)

1. #2 Bound Notebook 7-2
2. #3 Disco's Son 4-1
3. #5 Chatain 2-1

LONGSHOTS/SUPER ADDS: #4 I'm Only Laughing 20-1; #7 Court Folly 20-1

8th: 23rd Hall of Fame (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (DD)

1. #3 Distorted Reality 5-2
2. #6 Nobiz Like Shobiz 9-5
3. #1 Marcavelly 2-1

9th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

1. #9 TWO TURN HALO 9-2
2. #4 Western Sweep 4-1
A. #6 Brown Eyed Belle 3-1
B. #5 Fighting Speedy 10-1

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #7 Earhart 12-1

@$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-7
7: 2-3-4-5
8: 1-3-6
9: 9

3x4x3x1 x $1 = $36

Good luck!
Steve

Steve

Is your thought in the first the ole 0-2-X or is there more to this play on Mr Langfuhr than meets the eye?

I was surprised you stayed away from Upscale Storm in the 3rd with Contesa having a first off the claim, lightly raced with a layoff to boot. The pattern is strong off the sheets. You know something the rest of us mortals don't.

About the capitals in the 9th is this the BEST BET of the day? I have never heard you say that or write that and I was just curious.

DD

To be politically correct. Contessa hasn't actually knocked the cover off the ball during the last 3 Toga meets.. Overbet and underperformed. IMHO, you have to let him beat you as he did with an old fav Storm Boot Gold in yesterdays nightcap.

I'm interested to see how Nobiz performs on the turf relly like distorted reality. Looks like an awful lot of pace in this race

Really look hard at Going Day (#11). Horse ran the route of ground in Europe and last was obviously a prep for this spot, could be decent odds.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Really look hard at Going Day (#11). Horse ran the route of ground in Europe and last was obviously a prep for this spot, could be decent odds.

Scav,

She's taking some money in the doubles, currently 3rd choice.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapperZeke

Scav,

She's taking some money in the doubles, currently 3rd choice.

Yep, pretty interesting actually, my guess is that the value is in the DD and not in a win wager because she will be 5/1 and not 10/1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Yep, pretty interesting actually, my guess is that the value is in the DD and not in a win wager because she will be 5/1 and not 10/1

Just noticed the 4 in the second race taking a ton of action in the double. Doubles 8/4 and 9/4 went from 127 and 106 down to 90 and 68 in 5 minutes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapperZeke

Just noticed the 4 in the second race taking a ton of action in the double. Doubles 8/4 and 9/4 went from 127 and 106 down to 90 and 68 in 5 minutes.

It makes sense, the 4 is playable there.

5/1 first click, unbelievable......

Who won the 1st? I played 8 / 5,11,12 DD.

Thanks

Your 8 got up and paid $8.40 to win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Who won the 1st? I played 8 / 5,11,12 DD.

Thanks

8 won.

5: 23.00
11: 28.60
12: 57.25

Payouts per $1

2nd race #8 Herborista great overlay at 15-1. should run a huge one here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CapperZeke

Just noticed the 4 in the second race taking a ton of action in the double. Doubles 8/4 and 9/4 went from 127 and 106 down to 90 and 68 in 5 minutes.

Someone really likes that 4, down to 6-1.

Dang. Should have used the #6 Third Off. No biggie.

I will. Punch two more "Byk Plays" from above for the day.

Race #5 - Tri Bx 2-4-5-6

Race #6 pick4
1,5,7,9 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,3,6 / 9

Good Luck!

R4) I think there might be an overlay in this race

#8 Nightnightnight (ML 4-1) currently 10-1 out of the Frogman's barn with Leparoux up.

$5 PK3
8/235/5 = $15

gl all

-bt-