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-   -   Nice Pick-4 payoffs with the 4% takeout at Ellis (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15567)

Dunbar 07-30-2007 11:22 AM

Nice Pick-4 payoffs with the 4% takeout at Ellis
 
To see the power of a 4% takeout, just take a look at yesterday's 4% Pick-4 at Ellis.

The winners of races 8-11 paid $10.80, $5.00, $12.00, $22.80.

What if Saratoga's 25% Pick-4 takeout had been in effect at Ellis? Then yesterday's $1 Pick-4 payoff would have been $1071. But with the 4% takeout, it paid $1371, not $1071. That extra $300 (an extra 28% profit) is what the 4% takeout brings to the game.

IMO, anyone who is not betting the Ellis Pick-4 is:
(1) missing out on what at the moment is the best bet in racing, and
(2) missing out on a chance to help the future of race betting, and therefore, the sport itself.

--Dunbar

whodey17 07-30-2007 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
To see the power of a 4% takeout, just take a look at yesterday's 4% Pick-4 at Ellis.

The winners of races 8-11 paid $10.80, $5.00, $12.00, $22.80.

What if Saratoga's 25% Pick-4 takeout had been in effect at Ellis? Then yesterday's $1 Pick-4 payoff would have been $1071. But with the 4% takeout, it paid $1371, not $1071. That extra $300 (an extra 28% profit) is what the 4% takeout brings to the game.

IMO, anyone who is not betting the Ellis Pick-4 is:
(1) missing out on what at the moment is the best bet in racing, and
(2) missing out on a chance to help the future of race betting, and therefore, the sport itself.

--Dunbar

Couldnt agree more. Good example as well.

smuthg 07-30-2007 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
To see the power of a 4% takeout, just take a look at yesterday's 4% Pick-4 at Ellis.

The winners of races 8-11 paid $10.80, $5.00, $12.00, $22.80.

What if Saratoga's 25% Pick-4 takeout had been in effect at Ellis? Then yesterday's $1 Pick-4 payoff would have been $1071. But with the 4% takeout, it paid $1371, not $1071. That extra $300 (an extra 28% profit) is what the 4% takeout brings to the game.

IMO, anyone who is not betting the Ellis Pick-4 is:
(1) missing out on what at the moment is the best bet in racing, and
(2) missing out on a chance to help the future of race betting, and therefore, the sport itself.

--Dunbar

or, in my case (3) stuck in a state (e.g. Missouri) that hates horse racing and bans account wagering.

Dunbar 07-31-2007 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg
or, in my case (3) stuck in a state (e.g. Missouri) that hates horse racing and bans account wagering.

That sucks. I'm able to access my Penn National OTB acct's 800# using my cell phone. Not sure if the 800# would work if I was forced to call from a Missouri (or some other regressive state's) land line. In fact, I'm in Hawaii right now, a state with no gambling options, if I remember correctly.

--Dunbar

Scav 07-31-2007 02:35 PM

Have the pools continue to grow with this? I have no opportunity to play unless I go to the OTB, then I will be playing.....

SniperSB23 07-31-2007 02:38 PM

I've been playing it every morning to get my free past performances on Brisbet. Figure there is no better place for my money to be going.

SentToStud 07-31-2007 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Have the pools continue to grow with this? I have no opportunity to play unless I go to the OTB, then I will be playing.....

They're getting $45,000 or so on Saturdays. Which is real good.

On Saturday:

Track / Total Handle / Late p-4 handle

Arlington / 6.3 mil / $55k
Ellis / 2.8 mil / $47k

SniperSB23 07-31-2007 02:53 PM

Seriously though, with 4% takeout they should really be able to get this thing up to $100,000 on weekends. You have to be crazy to not be putting your money into this pool. The results have hardly been unpredictable either.

SentToStud 07-31-2007 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus
That's a great comparison point. I didn't know how to relate its growth in terms other than comparing where it started to where it is today, and how it relates to its pools of other years.

What Ellis needs to do is run on Mondays and Tuesdays. They'd do well against Delaware and Philadelphia. Hell, even Delaware handles $20k on their p-4. Don't see why Ellis doesn't run those days when the competition is softer.

gamblin4ever 07-31-2007 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Seriously though, with 4% takeout they should really be able to get this thing up to $100,000 on weekends. You have to be crazy to not be putting your money into this pool. The results have hardly been unpredictable either.

I agree, but some players @ the place i go prefer to play the big tracks(Ap,Sar,Delmar)than play where they get better bang for their money.
I at least play the PK4 @ Ellis even if i don't play any other race there.

SniperSB23 07-31-2007 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever
I agree, but some players @ the place i go prefer to play the big tracks(Ap,Sar,Delmar)than play where they get better bang for their money.
I at least play the PK4 @ Ellis even if i don't play any other race there.

Next time they hit a P4 at one of those places give them the figure of how much they would have made for that exact same P4 at Ellis. Then see if they change their mind.

dr. fager 07-31-2007 03:13 PM

With the Claiming Crown there this weekend, pools should be at their best too I think Saturday. Although I don't know what kind of handle this brings in.

Dunbar 08-01-2007 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Seriously though, with 4% takeout they should really be able to get this thing up to $100,000 on weekends. You have to be crazy to not be putting your money into this pool. The results have hardly been unpredictable either.

I agree with this emphatically. Yet today's pool was an embarrassing $25,000. I say "embarrassing", because I find it embarrassing that the best bet in horseracing can only attract $25,053 worth of bets. Hell, my bet was 1/70th of the entire pool! Aren't there at least a couple hundred horseplayers in the entire country willing to pump some money into this pool?

Is any track going to think about lowering take when Ellis draws a whopping 25,000 with it's 4%?

btw, today's payoff on a 50c ticket was $6,012. Not bad for $23.80, $6.20, $14, $18.40. A 50c parlay would have paid $1188. The Pick-4 paid more than 5 times as much as the parlay.

--Dunbar

10 pnt move up 08-01-2007 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
I agree with this emphatically. Yet today's pool was an embarrassing $25,000. I say "embarrassing", because I find it embarrassing that the best bet in horseracing can only attract $25,053 worth of bets. Hell, my bet was 1/70th of the entire pool! Aren't there at least a couple hundred horseplayers in the entire country willing to pump some money into this pool?

Is any track going to think about lowering take when Ellis draws a whopping 25,000 with it's 4%?

btw, today's payoff on a 50c ticket was $6,012. Not bad for $23.80, $6.20, $14, $18.40. A 50c parlay would have paid $1188. The Pick-4 paid more than 5 times as much as the parlay.

--Dunbar

most horse players cant even figure out the parlays or know what they mean, you post while spot on is probably greek to alot of people.

gamblin4ever 08-02-2007 02:14 AM

For most horseplayers to realize the benefit of Ellis, one of the big 3(Churchill,NYRA,& Magna) will have to reduce takeout.
Magna will have reduced takeout (14%) when Laurel starts their meet. Hopefully players will start to see the increased payout from Laurel and start looking @ Ellis.

If the Laurel meet is sucessful maybe Magna will make the change @ all their tracks,hopefully.

Of course most players like to bet tracks where the better quality horses are,IMO


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