Belmont, 6-23
 

Giving Belmont a shot today, a bunch of evenly matched, although not outstanding, fields... in races like these, the odds will decide the final plays.

1st:
#1A DC's Thunder (back to Contessa, ran well for him last year)
#4 Fighting Roy Kelly (consistent, if unspectacular)
#2 More Heck (off the layoff, has run well fresh before, using underneath)
He may run off the screen, but I don't like #8 Theatrical Glory, running back on 3 days rest.

Race 2:
#1 Clifton Bay (Shug's horse should improve 2nd out)
#8 Star Dixie
#6 Queens Full (Clement firster may debut running)
#'s 3 She's My Sunshine, #4 Deliciously Wicked and #7 Bee Seventeen all look solid to hit board at prices.

Race 3:
#2 Precise Alloy
#4 Americanus (getting weight from top choice, 2nd Contessa, anyone remember Papi Chullo?)
#1 Smash'em Sammy (consistent, although a bit slower than top 2)

Race 4:
#1 Top of the Sevens (moves inside, should improve 3rd out)
#11 Really Rollicking (2nd off layoff, speed from outside)
#4 Jets Only (very dangerous switching to the turf)
#12 Sense of Speed
long shot add in: #6 Can't Refuse

Race 5: Extremely evenly matched field
#3 Estimator (potentially Xplosive pattern)
#9 Bonus Size
#1 Cresent's Joker
If spreading really deep, use #5 Bayou Timber, #8 Winaway, and Andy's 2 from Belmont day, #4 Helene's Dream and #6 Monority Leader, all have a shot here as well.

Race 6:
#1 Wingspan (1st US start for Pletcher)
#5 Lahudood (1st US start for McL)
these 2 seem to stand out in here. Use #2 Brantley, #6 Junkanoo Party, #8 Dr D's Archangel, and #10 Winsome Ways underneath in exotics

Race 7:
#2 Western Sweep
#8 Cammy's Choice
All 3 Contessa horses, #4 City in the Clouds as the best price.

Race 8:
#8 Makderah (3rd US start, could be something special)
#3 Vacare (very fast, but giving weight to all)
#5 Masseuse
#1 Hostess
can't completely dismiss #2 Jade Queen

Race 9:
#1 Elder Skatesman (most likely winner)
#4 Jackies Punt (no chance on Belmont Day, would have to improve here to win)
#8 Howdymissthisone (Serey from Contessa, 1st turf??? but dangerous)
#5 You Sure
#10 I'll Make It Up

Pick 6 play:

4th: 1,4,11
5th: 3,9 (could go MUCH deeper)
6th: 1,5
7th: 2,8 (could go deeper here as well)
8th: 3, 5, 8
9th: 1 (not really a great single, but I'm looking for a real ticket that I can afford).

$144 (I think)

Good luck to all, feedback is encouraged!

3 races destroyed my day.
R Dutrow's 3 day wheel back holding off the 1 horse in the first.

A Dutrow's Freudian waking up in the 4th.. it's not surprising how he ran today, he was a winner one step out of the gate. What was surprising was how awful he ran the time before, which is why I didn't use him today.

Can someone PLEASE explain how anyone could come up with Street Sass in the 7th. The word must have out as she amazingly went off at 8-1, off the DNF and layoff.. sits dead last and rolls by the field like they were standing still. This is a serious question, I hope someone can answer it.

I missed the super in the last, and boneheadedly failed to play the trifecta, it was that type of day:(

I used Street Sass in my Pick 6(which of course ended up 5 of 6 cause I single Jade Queen jeez). Just off the beyers her race 2 back made her competitive against this bunch of gals who really didnt have any proven killers and the lightly raced ones had certain knocks on them. I drew a line through her last and loved the addition of Gomez off the layoff and that last work she had on the 'toga training track (:48 2/5). I also figured she would be coming well off a pretty hot pace with Brown Eyed Belle and Zip of Fools in there. Unfortunatly I didn't use Makderah even though I regarded her as the next most logical winner in the 8th but I had to single somewhere.

Thanks for the response, Gauchos. The race 2 back for Street Sass was a Thorograph 7, which was 7 points better than she had ever run (and the only good race she had ever run), and while it was easy to draw a line through the Feb Aqueduct race, the "isolated" top was over 6 months ago. Good call coming up with her, sorry about your missing the pick 6 ($22,000, that really sucks!).