5/19: Belmont ($124k Carry)
 

Curiously similar positive performance Friday at Belmont to Thursday, as the 5th race winner is the only one that eludes again.. Terrible decision by me to start the P4, using the 1st and 3rd choices in the 6th omitting 2nd choice Limoncella. The move cost us all a $2,090 payout, though the P3 out of the skein still returned $377.00. But back to back sweeps of the 6th and 7th were highly lucrative, with the Tri in the 6th bringing home $442.75, and the 7th race exotic boxes/keyes scoring out with overlaid 2nd choice Pangburn paying a crazy $48.80: EX-$83.00; TRI-$250.50; SUPER-$861.00.. Hope you did well..

Double carryover of $124,000 into Saturday's card..

BELMONT PARK: 4th-9th

POST-Scratches/Changes..

4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 7f (P6, P3)

1. #5 Winaway 5-2 WON
2. #7 Our Brave Hobbit 4-1 3rd
A. #4 Papershoes 3-1 7th
B. #2 Seittam 8-1 2nd

$1 Ex: $19.50
$1 Tri: $48.75


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Grand Slam, P3)

1. #6 Appealing Spring 6-5 2nd
2. #9 Norman's Good Boy 12-1 3rd
A. #7 Dontess 5-2 WON
B. #2 Baltic 10-1 4th

$1 Ex: $6.60
$1 Tri: $40.75


6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, DD, Super)

1. #3 Gentle Touch 5-2 3rd
2. #2 Defrereoftheheart 2-1 WON
A. #1 In the Spotlight 10-1
B. #4 Stormy Success 15-1 4th


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Wide open Empire turf mile that could produce 8-9 different winners.. Day hinges here to a large extent.. Leaving ML favorites #9/#11 out of race picks looking for a score with value horses, but inclined to cover them in multi-race plays.. This is an impossible race..

1. #8 Bayou Timber 6-1 2nd
2. #7 Big Bad Monster 12-1 4th
A. #2 SCR SUB #3 Gold and Blue Box 12-1 5th
B. #5 Time Piece 15-1 7th

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #6 Lorccan 20-1 6th


8th: 32nd Shuvee (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

1. #6 Silmaril 12-1
2. #1 Swap Fliparoo 9-2
3. #3 Sugar Shake 7-5


9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (Super)

1. #5 What a Tale 5-2
2. #9 SCR SUB: #8 Bold Jeweller 8-1
A. #6 Premium Wine 3-1
B. #2 Call Me Larry 9-2


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-7
5: 6
6: 2-3
7: 5-7-8-9
8: 1-6
9: 5-8

3x1x2x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4/P3 Plays:

Offering odd approach here looking for big ticket singling Silmaril in the Shuvee and using as many as posible in the 7th.. "ALT" play offers more traditional approach for $54..

6: 2-3
7: 3-4-5-6-7-8-9-11 (ALT: 2-SCR-8-9)
8: 6 (ALT: 1-3-6)
9: 5-6-8

2x8x1x3 = $48 (ALT: 2x2x3x3 = $36)


Good luck!
Steve

Steve in your BEL Pick 4 in the last leg did you mean to include Bold Jeweller # 8 or # 6 Premium Wine? In your selections you didn't mention the 8 but the 6 is your second pick.

Just curious.

HH

Bold Jeweller is the Longshot Alert horse in the 9th.. Was initially part of the top picks, but I moved him there.. Like him enough to not leave out of the P4with potential to send the thing into the straosphere... The top tabs (5-9) appear highly likely, and the 9 would be juicy, but the 8 intrigues me a lot..

Thanks for noticing though.. I have a history of transcribing them badly on days like this where I've looked at and written up far too many races!

Good luck today HH!

Interesting that they shipped here instead of running yesterday @ Pimlico...
using underneath the "other" two scratched horses from yesterday also! :)

Like your "super" box in the finale also...

In addation to pick6 and pick4, I am going to take a shot on two value horses. Race #5 Baltic (10-1) and Race #7 Timber Bayou Timber (6-1).

Hope someone here brings home the Carryover...

Good Luck Today!!

TVG

A couple minor changes made to Belmont plays with scratches...

Took a shot on pk6 and pk4, split tickets with pointman.

4,5,7 / 2,6 / 2 / 8,9,11 / 3,6 / 5,6.

Look for more value in pk4
2,3,5 / 8,9,11 / 1,3,4,6 / 5,6,8

Good Luck!