Belmont 5/9/07
 

I feel like playing a little bit today...

At first glance at Belmont, this is what I have come up with;

Race 1

#3 - Scr
#4 - Freedom Isnt Free
#6 - Miltary Major

Race 2

#1e- Scr
#2 - Brown Eyed Belle
#6 - Smokin Sarah
#8 - Nordberg

Race 3

#1 - scr
#3 - Noble Deeds
#5 - Too Risky
#7 - L'Oiseau d'Argent

Race 4

#2 - Inside Info
#9 - Stricking Rizzi

Race 5

#1 - Five Siblings
#4 - Egypt Lane
#5 - All You Need

Race 6

#2 - scr
#3 - Radio Cat
#7 - Crescent's Joker

Race 7

#4 - Acquired Cat
#6 - Girl in Uniform
#7 - Classic Expression
#8 - scr

Race 8

#1 - Smach'Em Sammy
#6 - Bustin Stones
#7 - Indian Camp

Race 9

#1 - Runaway Star
#5 - Saint Chi Chi
#10 - Rosie of Geri
#11 - Sweet Colors
#12 - scr
I will keep looking and post some picks.

A couple Belmont thoughts...

R1) #6 Military Major (15-1 ML) is interesting. Last time at this trip and level, he registered a 2 length victory where the field was strung out pretty good behind him before getting trounced by the Dutrow Indian War Dance for $50k. Colita may be done and I wouldn't touch him at 3/1.

R2) #5 Ruth Drive (4-1 ML) has the pace advantage on this group and I'd expect Arroyo to be sending, hopefully he can control the pace to enough to leave something left in the stretch.

R7) #4 Aquired Cat (3-1 ML) will be murder against this group back on her preferred surface. Doubtful the 3-1 holds up. A solid P3, P4 key in a race many will be spreading.

R9) #5 Saint Chi Chi (5-1 ML) drops from MSW's and gets Prado, ran her final quarter in :23 4/5 in her last which would toast this group if she can get a little closer to the pace early.

I'm going to try late pk4

3,7 / 4,6,7,10 / 5,6 / 1,5,9,10
$64

Good Luck Today!

Nice work. I can't beleive that Zippy Shannon is entered for a tag in the 7th.

I like Aquired Cat but can't leave ZS off. Zippy Shannon is 10 of 12 ITM with a 50% win rate (including a stake) and one of the top City Zip progenys. I'll be amazed if Linda Rice lets her get passed the claim box.

Edit - old data - just got the pp's for the 7th - she's had 15 starts, 11 ITM...first time over turf - Schosberg is 0-17 first time turf starts and she's coming off 2 month layoff....me thinks the tag is making more sense...Probably won't use her.

I am going to play the late PK4;

Race 6: #3, #7 WON
Race 7: #1, #4
Race 8: #1, #6, #7
Race 9: #1, #5, #10, #11

2 X 2 X 3 X 4 = $48

Good luck.

I used her, only because if she can turf, she might be able to handle these, and with those doubts you expressed, might be a decent price. Too scary for me to leave off.

Bombs away at Big Sandy.. This early Pick 4 is going to pay HUGE.

I'm singled on the 5 in the next leg of the p3 with 6 horses in the last. Went 3 deep in the first leg and caught the bomb.
Wish me luck.

More questions than answers with this choice in placement. The horse is a proven world beater on dirt, comes off a two month layoff directly to a surface she's never raced over before, by a trainer that clearly hasn't had any success with (0-17). AND entered for a tag....Just isn't adding up -

I agree, but that may have scared me into putting her on my ticket. Obviously they picked this spot thinking nobody would drop a slip, with questions like the ones you presented. I know I would want to watch this race, not drop a slip here. Where if she was on dirt, you know there might be a shake at this price.

Wow, the #3 got up to get by Zippy Shannon.

Yeah, she looked great. The 3 had all kind of run. the first time I've seen a Running Stag filly win in NY in a while...I usually stay away from those, glad I got tied up and didn't get my late P3 in - I don't think I would have added her at 11-1.....

I thought the 6f would be too short for her style. Guess I was wrong...

Just an FYI, Zippy Shannon was claimed by Levine, so you weren't the only sharp eye that wouldn't let her get by the claim box.

As an aside, I didn't have a live tote today (they blocked all the outlets at work, grrrr), I was shocked Highly Spoken got away at 35-1. The damsire was a multiple G1 winner on turf (obviously in a NYB MSW very few are regally bred for turf) and he had shown moderate ability on dirt (more than most of the bums in the 4th could say.) I wish I did, because I wouldn't have just played a pick 3 flier with him.