Belmont - ImAWildAndCrazyGuy
 

Watch the end of the Derby, the very end, when this horse is just getting "cranked" and tell me why I should NOT bet this horse in The Belmont.

This horse wants MORE.............................................. .

I just wanna know where this horse came from?? I watched him down in Calder and they destroyed him.

If this horse can run what about Green Vegas and Straight Faced???

Honestly, I am just chillin watchin this horse gallop off after The Derby and thinkin man alive, this horse wants more and could eat some meat come Belmont

I personally dont think you can look at the KY Derby and see how a horse runs and assume the horse will run the same way in his next race.

I also don't see it. The Belmont will be a smaller field run at a slower pace. The late big close is totally not what you want. The other problem is that he is probably not fast enough.

Just wish he would've gotten cranked a little sooner. I had the 7-8/7-8/all.
I was hoping for a little something longer than Curlin to get 3rd. Not a bad triple as it was but with Imawildandcrazy guy it would have been much nicer.

I get the feeling that Guy's result is in direct corelation to Guidry, he is a great closer and just got that closer trip where he got the right hole and he wasn't stopping......

Every year a horse makes a big late move in the Derby and everyone says, "Oh my gosh that's my horse for the Belmont." The list is endless, including Menifee in '99, Impeachment in 2000, Atswhatimtalknabout in '03 (of course he never went on to run again), Imperialism in '04, and Steppenwolfer and Jazil a year ago.

The reason why these types of horses have little success in the Belmont is the very nature of the race. A mile and a quarter race, and the Derby in particular, will have a much faster pace than a mile and a half race. Now many on here are much more adept in laying out pace scenarios so I hope they comment. The slower pace of the Belmont does not make it any easier for a closer and thus the Belmont is a more difficult race for a late runner to win than the Derby is in my opinion.

Jazil won a year ago thanks to basically a four-furlong move that commenced at the entry to the far turn and continued all the way to the wire.

So, is Imawildandcrazyguy worth a shot in the Belmont? If you have reason to think the pace will be fast enough and that he can sustain a bid for more than the last quarter of a mile, then sure.

NT

was just thinking the same thing....

I don't think he was running late as much as he was running even and passing dead dog tired horses from the 3/16 pole to the wire.

If you like the way I'mawildandcrazyguy closed and galloped out, then you should watch the race again and look at Tiago. About 10 strides past the wire, Tiago is past Street Sense.

Not saying that I agree or disagree with your strategy, just that IWCG wasn't the only one who appeared to be flying late.

I wouldn't be lining up to back him in the Belmont based on the Derby, but the fact remains that he was as wide as you could get coming off the turn and managed to pass a dozen horses in a quarter mile. Without a doubt the most impressive stretch run of any horse, in my opinion.

appeared is the right word Joe. You and I would have appeared to look fast passing some of those tired horses in mid-pack.

The extra length of the Belmont stakes can dull a closer's late kick since he has to sustain it for a longer period of time.

Let's keep in mind, he was passing horses that had long since spit the bit and called it a day. You can't really evaluate based on the run off after the post either...Borel was jumping for joy and you figure Pino had slowed up Hard Spun after an ultra game effort. I'd throw him on the bottom of some tickets for the Belmont, but not the top.

there's been some reasonable responses here but no one has really nailed it so i guess it's up to me.

the reason you don't want to bet a late closer in the derby to win the belmont is because...

(drum roll)

"jockeys will ask the horse to run later in a 12f race than they do in a 10f race."

your late running closer will most likely still be picking up the pieces and passing tired horses for 4th in the belmont because he isn't going to be asked to run until 2f later than he was in the derby.

there it is. and you're welcome.

Ummmm

You might want to look again where the horse looks as if it's going to BLOW BY Curlin, this is when it's 'cranked',

but never does.

Why is that, you think?

20 owners enter horses in the Derby.

10 are there to win at all costs. Meaning the likelihood of a troubled trip and not hitting the board.

4 or 5 are there to hit the board for the minor $ awards. Meaning avoiding all trouble, sit 15-20 lengths back and make a determined run for 3rd/4th/5th.

And then you get the token 4 or 5 who have zero chance at staying within 15 lengths of the winner, but are there because the owner just wants to be there.

IMO, this is why you so often see many prices in the 3rd/4th holes at the Derby...