Another big effort from Hard Spun
 

I remember the big fuss that was made in Europe when they watched supposed superhorse Fusaichi Pegasus, win the Kentucky Derby as the favorite, while having an easy time of it weaving through the pack....and having Wheelaway as a lead-blocker didn't hurt either.

I cashed on Fu Peg that day---and it's never easy to admit that the horse you bet on, that won, really wasn't the horse who ran the best race---and it's even harden when that horse was the favorite coming in.

Well, the European folks who made a fuss about Fu Peg's trip, and badmouthed the ability of American jockeys, are going to die laughing when they see the film of this race.

Hard Spun, who's last performance in the Southwest Stakes (when he was rated) was certainly the most underrated performance by a 3-year-old in any Derby prep, made the lead today and did so setting very lively fractions. The horses racing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th after a half mile, finished 17th, 19th, and 20th, all of them eased and practically walking by the time they crossed the wire.

Hard Spun, to his credit, was not giving much ground away to Street Sense in the final furlong. It would have been utterly impossible for Street Sense to have beaten him if he tried to circle the pack, and highly unlikely for him to have won if he had to weave his way in and out of the pack.

Hopefully the six week layoff going into the Derby today, and the big race he ran, won't be his undoing when he runs back in the Preakness, off of three times less rest.

He ran very well and did not throw in the towel after getting passed.

Its hard to overemphasize how strong of a performance Hard Spun put in today.

Its shaping up to look like we have at this point potentially three stars emerging from the group, and they finished 1-2-3 today.

I would be surprised if Hard Spun raced again. Not only was this race a gut wrencher, but given Porter's history, on the shelf he goes

We can only hope he runs back in the Preakness.

It is if he's a good horse.....and he sure ran like one today.

This mythical bounce stuff needs to stop.

Hard Spun ran a really good race today. Agree that the Derby answered many questions and there are three talented colts in this group. The Preakness will be very interesting, I think Curlin is just getting better and can be real tough.

Hard Spun had my best figure going into the race. My problem with him is he doesn't rate very well going long, and he did not once again yesterday. I don't see any reason to think he would do so in the Preakness either.

I thought he was well within himself on the lead.

If you go back and watch the Southwest Stakes--he rated wonderfully (albeit, while hung wide, back off a pathetically slow pace, while on an inside-speed track) that day.

I don't anticipate he'll have as much trouble rating off of Flying First Class as many think.

Hard Spun's mother was 4-for-15 lifetime, her average winning distance was BEYOND 10 furlongs---his father sired a Belmont winner. The distance question was never in doubt....he just couldn't fight off a horse who rated in 19th...and passed 16 horses on their inside by the time he confronted him.

You know I'm a numbers guy. Whether he looked relaxed or not, he was going too fast yesterday. Actually, the fact he looked relaxed is even a worse sign. It means he is going too fast all on his own.

I also don't have the Southwest that slow. It was a mile race, and I have it at 99 on the Beyer scale for the pace. That probably equates to a 110 at 1 1/4 miles, since the horses go slower. Given he was four wide, he was going even faster than that to keep up around the turns.

I think you might have cut something loose when you did your numbers for the Southwest---a bottom level claimer, at the same distance, earlier on in the card...who had never made the lead in his life...set faster fractions and went wire-to-wire.

I forgot---I think your pace figure is to the six furlong call in route races? I was thinking half mile.

Maybe they ran a supersonic third quarter in that race....that was when HS tried to make his move.

Yep, 6f call. It is tough to compare a mile race to an extended route anyway. I agree now, and did when you posted originally, that his Southwest was much better than it looked.

Do you get my point about looking relaxed while going too fast? The horses to bet back are those that are being pushed hard to go fast, especially while battling with other horses. Those going too fast on open leads without urging are not the same thing.

I totally get your point....however, the horse has as good a distance pedigree as any male who might run in the triple crown series, and that's pretty (perhaps very) uncommon for a horse with his great natural speed.

I think he'll be fine in the Preakness.

I look at pedigree when horses are trying something new. I could certainly understand the research as he stretched to two turns, then to 9f, then the Derby.

Now, however, this horse isn't trying anything new. The pedigree research should end when you see what the horse does in real life.

The horse has now run four routes. I give him the following pace/speed figures:

Lecomte: 109/95
Southwest: 97/95 (He did this while way wide, meaning that 97 was probably more like a 105 or so)
Blue Grass: 114/100
Kentucky Derby: 128/102

He is getting bigger pace numbers the farther he goes, which means he is not rating at all, basically runnning the same speed regardless of distance. If I made pace numbers based on actual speed rather than the distance, they would probably all be very similar.

I'm sure you meant the 114/100 was the Spiral/Lane's End/Jim Beam---as he probably would have had 12 lengths in the Blue Grass going that fast.

I realize he's running fast early/slow late in most of his races---with him, it doesn't bother me though.

Yeah, I meant the Beam.

I think Hard Spun will turn the tables at Pimlico. I seriously doubt you'll see a Stormello or Teufelsberg in there (although considering the lunacy in handling Teuf, maybe he will run). 46 flat for the Derby and still around at the finish. Definitely have him as the best horse.

And at some point, Street Sense is not going to have the rail open up like the Red Sea parting. I don't think Borel is going to get that trip in 2 weeks and if he has to circle wide on the far turn to catch Hard Spun, he won't do it.

No, those horses won't be there. Flying First Class will though.