Capping by Post Positions
 

How does everyone use the post positions. . . Do you toss all the outside horses? It shouldn't matter for closers (except maybe Street Sense) but if a horse like Any Given Saturday or Dominican (style wise) gets post 20 do they have a shot?

I think it pretty much comes down to who gets out of the chute cleanly. It is a very long run to the first turn so if you can get a comfortable position out of the gate the outside shouldn't matter that much. I think Smarty was in the 15 and Fu Peg in the 16...so that is two auxillary gate winners in the last 7 years.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Smarty wasn't all that compromised because he actually had some extra space because of where he was in the auxillary gate.

A lot of horses have come from the auxiliary gate in the last 12+ years- Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Charismatic, FuPeg, Smarty that I can think of. Everyone avoids the rail like the plague, but more Derby winners have come from the #1 post than any other, though the last was Ferdinand.

I dont think that's correct. I believe it's the 10 hole that has the most...Even in recent times, the 10 hole has still dominated with like 6 winners.

Well SS should either have #6 or #8 so winner will be from there this year :D

Winning post positions (1986-2006):

1 - 1
2 - 1
3 - 0
4 - 3
5 - 1
6 - 4
7 - 2
8 - 2
9 - 0
10 - 2
11 - 2
12 - 1
13 - 0
14 - 0
15 - 1
16 - 1
17 - 0
18 - 0
19 - 0
20 - 0

Bear in mind that the Derby did not have a 20 horse field from 1986-2004.

HEre is the list I was thinking of and going back to year 1900 and not counting last years:

PP/wins since 1900-2005

1. 12
2. 9
3. 8
4. 10
5. 12
6. 6
7. 7
8. 8
9. 4
10. 10
11. 3
12. 3
13. 4
14. 2
15. 3
16. 3
17. 0
18. 1
19. 0
20. 1

Obviously your more recent list seems more relevant but this might also have some releavance. There were large fields in the 1930s, 19 and 20 horse fields much of the time, it got way smaller in the 1940s, dont recall the 20s off the top. So...

I think there's a mistake here. I've got 5 winners from 15/16:

1995: pp 16 Thunder Gulch
1996: pp. 15 Grindstone
1999: pp. 16 Charismatic
2000: pp. 15 Fusaichi Pegasus
2001: pp. 16 Monarchos

are we looking at different lists? ?

Your list is partially incorrect.

1995 - Thunder Gulch (pp 11)
1996 - Grindstone (pp 4)
1999 - Charismatic (pp 11)
2000 - Fu Pig (pp 12)

2001 was correct... Monarchos won out of pp 16.

Here are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishing post positions since 1986. (Didn't have time to go back further today... maybe later if I'm bored.)

1986: 1-3-6
1987: 4-9-14f
1988: 8-1a-3
1989: 10-2b(one of the best horses I ever saw :p )-2
1990: 7-11-8
1991: 4-10-7
1992: 7-3-1a
1993: 6-5-16
1994: 6-5-10
1995: 11-10-2b
1996: 4-3-8
1997: 6-5-12
1998: 2-12-7
1999: 11-13-8
2000: 12-5-1c
2001: 16-13-8
2002: 5-13-3
2003: 6-12-5
2004: 15-3-10
2005: 10-18-12
2006: 8-13-2

skewed by early data?? from pre-auxiliary gate days i'd imagine. the one hole gets pretty squeezed coming out--you're headed right for the rail if you don't move out some, due to where they set up.