Scat Daddy
 

I have been reading and following the board now for several weeks regarding all of the Derby talk and potential winners, favorites, etc. Why is it that Scat Daddy is getting little talk as far as being a legit contender?

Granted I am pretty green when it comes to the ponies as I have only been wagering and following the sport for about 2 years. But I have witnessed this horse in person win the Fountain of Youth and Fl Derby. I thought they were failry impressive victories. Am I not seeing something in these races or this horse that would dismiss these wins??

I think when he ran 4th in the BC, and then 3rd in the Holy Bull, a lot of fans dismissed him, I personally think he is the KD winner, and I might get 9-1 Derby Day.

He won't hit the board. . .

that is great, but my question is why is this horse not getting any love? I am not debating, just trying to figure out what I may not be seeing. Anyone can throw out predictions like "he wont hit the board"

He's too slow.

His entire career has been consistent....consistently good but far from superior. He's possibly the most glaring sucker horse in this Derby.

My two cents...worth about 1/2 of one.

My problem is his route to the Derby...last prep 5wks out in Florida worked once so far last year and I think we all can agree that Barbaro was pretty special. I'm not willing to throw him out underneath but I never liked a horse coming out of Florida for his last race, looking elsewhere.

Problem is that seems to be the case with most of the field. Other than Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Curlin I don't see anyone else that much faster than Scat Daddy. I won't be playing him in the win spot on Derby Day but will definitely be including him underneath.

I don't particularly disagree but it feels like his odds are lower than his actual chances of winning. He is a model of consistency, and not only does that make him slower than at least a few serious contenders, it also makes him less likely to dramatically improve. To me he is somewhat reminiscent of Lawyer Ron, or High Fly, in that he's clearly talented but also clearly slower than more than a few, and will take real money.

Not that I am endorsing him, but I feel like Tiago is in some ways a more likely winner, in that he COULD improve. I also feel like he is likely to lose to Scat Daddy but I am not sure he isn't a likelier winner of the race.

Nobiz is faster when not running all over the track in the strech. I don't buy Curlin yet, if he beats me in the Derby so be it, then I will be a believer in him. I concur that Scat Daddy is just slower, but people say Nobiz is too. I do think Scat Daddy will be the best finisher of all the Pletch horses, I just don't think he will be in the top 3, maybe not even 4.

Tiago will be on every Triple and Super I play. I feel he will improve, and even if he does not get the dream trip he did in his last, he will still be able to get up for a piece.

I have consistently underestimated this colt, so it is certainly possible that I am doing it again......but I don't like his chances to be in the exacta. You say you think his FOY was "impresive." Well, in some ways it WAS a very credible win. He came 3-4 wide in a 9f, G2 race (with a field of nine) and won.
However, he was all-out that day to beat a real quitter at 9f in Stormello, and he was actually GETTING weight from Stormello on that day. He ran a 95 BSF that day (which is pretty much his top effort) and while that is certainly respectable, I don't really see a reason to expect any more from him going 10f. In fact, I don't really see anything in his past performances or pedigree to suggest that he will like 10f, or improve much from what he is right now.
He is a solid stakes horse.....but I don't think he is a classic-winner.

Tiago is my fifth choice (behind Nobiz). Sam P is another sleeper I think could hit the board if they take the blinkers off and get him off the pace.

I think these are very apt comparisons.

Yeah, I guess the credible counter argument is that those two met arguably more intimidating fields but they do seem like very comparable horses.

I don't want to marry myself to anyone before really looking at the pps but right now Sam P interests me as well. Some of it may be that I always thought he had potential when he broke his maiden at Saratoga but he also feels like the only horse coming into this Derby who ran much better in his final prep than it looks on paper.

Yeah, he comes from off the pace there and he is probably the Santa Anita Derby winner rather than Tiago. I'm normally not into watching pre-Derby works but he is one horse I'll be watching closely. If it looks like they are working him to rate then I'll be very interested. If they are working him alone in bullet times then I want nothing to do with him in the Derby.

I disagree.

I think we have established this tig...er...cajun:p

This isn't a field of world beaters, that's for sure. At least Barbaro stood out to me last year as the winner... that's not really the case this year. Street Sense is the only one that really seems to have it, but I'm concerned about the two prep approach for him.

While I don't like his chances and won't be betting him, Curlin definitely seems to have "it"- whatever that is. . . Scat Daddy is probably Pletcher's 3rd stringer and doesn't seem to be improving much. . . I just can't see moving up enough to beat the horses in here who seem to have more potential. . .