Question about the Derby breeding if it comes up wet
 

Which horses in contention for the derby starting gate chances would greatly be enhanced by a off track? just wondering in case it comes up wet, last derby that was sloppy was Smarty Jones and if I remember correctly that day at CD the speed held most of the day, Any info would be great appreciated.

One would think that Any Given Saturday would move up big-time.

Funny you ask...I just checked the extended weather forecast the there is a 60% chance of showers on Derby day. I would agree that Any Given Saturday moves up a little. But for the most part everyone will remain the same. The year Smarty won the Derby, Lion Heart was 2nd and he was the speed with Smarty stalking him.

Distorted Humor horses almost always move up on the slop, so that's Any Given Saturday and Cowtown Cat. Zanjero, Hard Spun and Curlin have 400+ Tommys for the mud as well..

I just checked weather.com and it says 10 percent of showers, partly cloudy and 76.

Any horse that runs in the front group gets a big advantage on a sloppy track. This is true at most dirt tracks, where the rain tightens up the surface so that the frontrunners don't get as tired running over it, and the trailing groups get significantly more discouraging kickback than normal. Only when the track is drying-out and tiring, muddy or good (depending on the track), do the closers from mid-pack or beyond get an advantage.

I.E. the 2004 Derby, sloppy track-Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, ran one-two almost the entire way

Not raining...everyone shut up and think positive. 75 and sunshine

LOL.

Just like in my avatar. Little chilly last year, but I can live with that as opposed to the Smarty Jones tornado warning.

Chilly? That weather was pristine last year.