Keeneland races 311/07
 

Well fun field right here. Have some horses coming from the turf, some from Turfway and a couple from dirt. I am using the best handicapping angle ever in this race. My wife's name is Sarah and the 3 horse is Sarah Supreme. So I have to use her.

$100 exacta wheel

3
with
1-6-8

Well the 3 was a little head strong today. The jock moved too fast but i dont think he had any choice. At Keeneland you have to wait as long as possible to make your move. Whoever leads when turning for home just hits a brink wall. Good job by the 1 and Bejarano.

so do you stop now, or keep chasing?

Oh keep going my friend. Prob will scale back my wagers to see if I can get into a groove.

I like the #1A CLEVER DUDE and #4 PROPHET JOHNscratched in R2.

ex box
1,4

Yeah the entry could be tough. But Profit John scratched. I like the 8 for a long shot play.

My wayer in Race 2

$20 exacta wheel

1-3-7-8
with
1-7

Man did they slow this track down form the first 2 days

good lord how slow could they go - :26 and :52 - got to love this european style. anyway, got a win. i think the exacta paid about $31.80. So I got back $318. still way down on the day, but at least we are on the board.

Well done whodey!

Thanks...but I am down $952 today. On the good side, I am up $205 over the last 3 days.

I like the #6 here Cool Mountain comes from a good first
out stable. Stidham charge has been working up a storm at
FG and here at KEE.

We are thinking alike. First time Lasix, Gomex aboard and dropping like a stone in the odd from m/l 10-1.

Race 3

$20 exacta box

1-4-6-12

Nice hit buddy, Cool Mountain ran a little green in the stretch and
won't be a maiden for long

This is what we like to see. I think the exacta will pay about $56.00. This helps tons and tons.

Thanks. yes he did run a little green. wont get 5-1 on him next time. Got back $578 on that one. Still long way to go.

Race 4

$20 exacta box

1-3-5-9

Good race right there. Good job by the 3 and the connections.

Race 5

Well another Sarah in this race. The 4 is Sarahs Surprise. So I have to take her. I also like the 1-7-10-11

My wager is this.

$100 exacta key

4
with
1-7-10-11

Vinery Madison
 

I'm intrigued by the 8th race, the G2 Vinery Madison. Who do you folks like in this one?

(btw... Annika Lass has scratched)

Seems to me that this is a wide open affair with at least four runners--Mary Delaney, Ginger Punch, Bright Abundance, and Leahs Secret--having the best chances to take it, and all at decent odds.

I'm tossing Yolanda B Too because, though she's fast enough, her last two races against graded company weren't that competitve and she has never tried a synthetic surface.

I really want to go with Bright Abundance--she's quick, she's the class of the field, she loves to win coming off a freshening, and she's been routing so she has a lot of bottom to her--but she's been strictly a turf runner up 'til now. Apparently Clemente believes a connection exists between success on the turf and success on Polytrack, but no-one has yet proven it to me. So I've drawn a line through Bright Abundance.

Brisnet says that Leahs Secret lacks the credentials to win the honors today, but I have to disagree. She's a seven furlong specialist, is running third off a layoff, and has won both her prior races at Keeneland. She looks good to me, but I have reservations because her recent form hasn't exactly been sparkling. So I'm drawing a line through her, too.

Ginger Punch is an improving lightly-raced filly who won her last 7f outing at Keeneland. Only once in her career has she failed to hit the board. Plus she has Frankel and Bejarano on her side. So, her chances can't be discounted. But she would have to step up big-time to prove that she can run well in graded company. So, she gets a line from me as far as the win is concerned.

So I've talked myself into going with Mary Delaney if her odds don't drop too much (morning line is 9/2). Her speed figures are competitive, she thrives on synthetic surfaces, she has won going 7f at Keeneland before, and she has been on the lead or within 3 lengths of the leader in her last three outs, indicating that her form is excellent right now. Plus she gets Prado. I'm still very concerned that, if she's sent right to the lead, the track at Keeneland will eat her up. Gate-to-wire speed rarely wins there. Nevertheless, and despite the jump in class she's making today, Mary Delaney is my top choice for the win.

Any differing opinions?