Future Wager Pool 3
 

7 new horses listed. Here are the horses and the morning line. Final odds determined by betting, with 16% takeout.

1 Any Given Saturday 15-1
2 Belgravia* 50-1
3 Birdbirdistheword 50-1
4 Chelokee* 15-1
5 Circular Quay 8-1
6 Cowtown Cat* 15-1
7 Curlin 12-1
8 Deadly Dealer* 50-1
9 Dominican* 50-1
10 Great Hunter 10-1
11 Hard Spun 12-1
12 Liquidity 30-1
13 Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-1
14 Notional 15-1
15 Officer Rocket 50-1
16 Reporting for Duty* 50-1
17 Sam P. 30-1
18 Scat Daddy 8-1
19 Stormello 20-1
20 Street Sense 5-1
21 Teuflesberg 50-1
22 Tiago* 15-1
23 Zanjero 30-1
24 All Other 3YOs 20-1

Betting runs from Thurs noon until Sunday 6pm EST

--Dunbar

The one horse that I think will be worth a future bet is Dominican. He will not see action this week-end and thus no big change and probably will get the 50/1. I think he will win the Lexington but not many will put much stock in it if for no other reason than the quick turnaround, Derby day odds 10/1 or higher. Even with the quick turnaround he will still be a fresh horse,

for those who like great hunter you have to like the 10-1, if he beats street sense or even runs a big second this saturday, then you looking at him being anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1, so if you like him i'd think the 8-1 has to be attractive, actually the same goes for street sense if you think he will win this saturday, and i do think he will win... then i cant see him being any higher then 3-1 on derby day.

AGS is tempting at that price, although I may get it on DD.

I thought he was going in the Bluegrass?

Is there a bet in Vegas for a horse to win the Triple Crown?

I'm guessing there is, because there has always been an offshore bet on this. I'll be in Las Vegas the week before the Derby and can say for sure then.

--Dunbar

Yes. It is usually 8-1 for a horse to win the triple crown. They won't give you odds though on a specific horse to do it, just any horse.

Thanks for the info. It should be much higher than that!

yes ...and on line..ill not take that bait this year..should of hedged my play as you suggested last year..we all know how that turned out yeshhhhhhh
just thought barbero was the one..

I think 11-1 or 12-1 has been the standard online the past couple of years. A few years ago I got 30-1, which was outrageously good.


I still like it if you can find 12-1 or so. Most years the Derby winner suddenly looks like a threat to win the whole thing, and the post-Derby odds on a TC drop dramatically. Just buy back the "No". This was a lot easier, though, when Pinnacle was around with it's low vig Yes/No.

--Dunbar

Only 10.5K bet in Future Wager Pool 3 so far today, but about $2K of it was bet on Street Sense by hapless bettors who apparently couldn't stand to wait to see how he races on Saturday. He's the 4-1 fav right now. Also, Birdbirdistheword has been "scratched".

--Dunbar

did they change this to a fixed odds bet? otherwise i don't understand your post.

setting m/l odds on a regular race is guessing where the sheep will graze. m/l odds on this bet is the same except some of the sheep are wearing explosive vests that go off saturday.

i'll look for some informed opinion here sunday morning.

FYI

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

2 Belgravia* 50-1
3 Birdbirdistheword 50-1
16 Reporting for Duty* 50-1

8 Deadly Dealer* 50-1
9 Dominican* 50-1
15 Officer Rocket 50-1
21 Teuflesberg 50-1
23 Zanjero 30-1

So by my count there are three absolutely not going to the Derby and five more running this weekend that will likely skip the Derby (or not get in) if they run poorly. Is Birdbird the only one they've suspended wagering on? Reporting for Duty is going to Lone Star and Belgravia is running in the Lexington but not the Derby.

glad my price on cobalt in pool 2 beats the field price for this 1 LOL

There is very little chance that Street Sense wins BOTH the Bluegrass and Derby. . .