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-   -   late p4 HAWTHORNE=CANCELLED (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10261)

SCUDSBROTHER 02-25-2007 04:15 PM

late p4 HAWTHORNE=CANCELLED
 
TOTAL REFUND.........I.E. I singled the horse who ran 2nd in the 6th,but got all my money back anyways(after they quit the card before the 7th race.)

brianwspencer 03-02-2007 09:03 AM

SCUDS, this is why I love this wager at Hawthorne when they get even a little carryover. Look at how outrageous this is. (Their regular non-carryover payoffs are often outrageous as well.)

The late pick-4 paid off yesterday.

Started off with a 5-2 winner.
Then a 9-5 favorite.
Then an odds-on 4-5 favorite.
And closed with a nearly 10-1 runner.


If my math is right, the $2 parlay paid $406.53

The $2 ticket paid $1,006.80

Absolutely stupid money for that relatively formful sequence.

ArlJim78 03-02-2007 09:14 AM

Are you kidding me? I have got to start looking into this. In general I find PK4's to offer some great values at the second tier circuits like the Thorne, but that is ridiculous. I have noticed great payoffs at Arlington on PK4's and supers as well.

I only wish I had a clue how to play that place, Hawthorne.

brianwspencer 03-02-2007 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Are you kidding me? I have got to start looking into this. In general I find PK4's to offer some great values at the second tier circuits like the Thorne, but that is ridiculous. I have noticed great payoffs at Arlington on PK4's and supers as well.

I only wish I had a clue how to play that place, Hawthorne.

Granted, that was with a 10k carryover, but Hawthorne's payoffs resulting in huge overlays compared to the parlay is pretty much the standard for many of the pick-4 wagers there.

When they're racing, they're really the only ones I play.

I wasn't into multi-race wagers until this fall, so I missed out on Arlington, but I'm looking forward to getting into them this Spring & Summer.

brianwspencer 03-02-2007 09:51 AM

Also, for what it's worth, I usually only play the late pick-4 there.

If you follow the payoffs a bit, the early pick-4 always seems like it comes out less than the parlay.

I just checked out two of the days for comparison's sake, the 3/1 early 4 paid $1,017 and the parlay some $2,236. On the 25th, it paid $367 and the parlay was $420.

I noticed this trend a LOT last winter, that the early 4 sucks, and the late 4 is huge.

Can't wait to play on Sunday!

SCUDSBROTHER 03-02-2007 02:09 PM

Brian,I have luckily been getting that 150% over the parlay at Anita,and once at Tampa(without 10k carryovers.)What this (yesterday's Thorne payoff) tells me is to only play there when there is a P4 carryover.Without the 10k carryover,it wouldn't have been pretty...Right?.......I thought I was gunna play it,but realized that I am just not familiar enough with those trainer's patterns.For some reason,that Farma Way seems to be involved with some upset winners in the mud n' slop. I keep seeing that.

brianwspencer 03-02-2007 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
Brian,I have luckily been getting that 150% over the parlay at Anita,and once at Tampa(without 10k carryovers.)What this (yesterday's Thorne payoff) tells me is to only play there when there is a P4 carryover.Without the 10k carryover,it wouldn't have been pretty...Right?.......I thought I was gunna play it,but realized that I am just not familiar enough with those trainer's patterns.For some reason,that Farma Way seems to be involved with some upset winners in the mud n' slop. I keep seeing that.

The carryover constituted about 1/3 of the pool, so even without out, the payoff would have been better than the parlay.

The thing with the Hawthorne pick-4s is because they have generally smaller pools (we're looking at ballpark 4-8K per pool), many times it carries over for no real reason, with pretty logical sequences. That means that if you play it fairly logically and catch a 12-1 shot in there, you could take down the whole pool.

The late 4 at Hawthorne seems to be the good one, but really, like any track, you never know what you're going to get. I've found Hawthorne's multi-race wagers to be pretty lucrative, but then again it's probably influenced heavily by the fact that I understand Chicago racing better, so I tend to do better there than at other tracks.

It's all in what you like to play -- I just think that Hawthorne's late-4 is one of the generally easier bets to catch, and almost always pays more than the parlay, oftentimes substantially.

Scav 03-02-2007 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Are you kidding me? I have got to start looking into this. In general I find PK4's to offer some great values at the second tier circuits like the Thorne, but that is ridiculous. I have noticed great payoffs at Arlington on PK4's and supers as well.

I only wish I had a clue how to play that place, Hawthorne.

I am ok their on their turf course, but their dirt track, as clueless as their come. I do better at Cal-Expo.

Pick Fours at Arlington are amazing for some reason, their pick threes pay well also, about 80% of my wagers at Arlington are these


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