7/7-8 (BEL): Manila (G3); Derby/Oaks (G1's), Suburban (G2), V-Ride (G3)
 

It might not look it on paper but The Foxes may have the Belmont Derby field over a barrel. He has a couple of key races on his resume.

When he won the important Royal Lodge as a 2yo (a race that was previously won by Frankel & has produced multiple winners of the Derby, 2000 Guineas, & BC Juvenile), he beat just 3 other horses. However, the 2nd & 3rd place horses came right back to win a Group 1 & Group 3 respectively. The last place finish got a break but won a Group 3 in his 2nd start as a 3yo.

This year after winning the Dante, a main prep race, The Foxes wilted into 5th in the Derby. The popular feeling is that he simply didn't stay the 12 furlongs.

Since that race, the winner Auguste Rodin came back to also win the Irish Derby. The runner-up King of Steel won the King Edward VII in one of the more impressive performances at Royal Ascot. And Derby 6th Waipiro crushed the Hampton Court (also at Royal Ascot) when cut back to 10 furlongs.

The Foxes' sire Churchill has also been on a tear with his first two crops. Among his many stakes winners has been last year's French Derby winner & this year's French Oaks winner (who by all accounts is a monster). His dam has produced multiple stakes winners. The great broodmare Fall Aspen (dam of Timber Country, granddam of Dubai Millennium) is his 4th dam.

I should have factored in his running style. In Europe this colt was more a "street fighter" than a horse with a turn of foot that could blow the doors off the field. Recent shippers with similar one-paced styles like Japan & Broome have found themselves toiling in the rear in their US starts & failed miserably despite seeming to outclass their rivals on paper.

These Euros are also usually slow out the starting gate and this one was no different. The jock did him no favors eschewing any thought of getting a stalking position after missing the break. Probably got 2nd on class alone, but it was not an impressive display from either horse or rider.