9/5 (CD): Derby Trail Probables ~ 11 for Preakness with Swiss
 

146TH KENTUCKY DERBY

SCR Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez/Martin Garcia)
2 Max Player (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 30-1
3 Enforceable (Mark Casse/Adam Beschizza) 30-1
4 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton/Julien Leparoux) 50-1
5 Major Fed (Greg Foley/James Graham) 50-1
SCR King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila/Samy Camacho)
7 Money Moves (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano) 30-1
8 South Bend (Bill Mott/Tyler Gaffalione) 50-1
9 Mr Big News (Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez) 50-1
SCR Thousand Words (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux)
11 Necker Island (Chris Hartman/Miguel Mena) 50-1
12 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici) 30-1
13 Attachment Rate (Dale Romans/Joe Talamo) 50-1
14 Winning Impression (Dallas Stewart/Joe Rocco) 50-1
15 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr./Paco Lopez) 20-1
16 Honor A.P. (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith) 5-1
17 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg/Manny Franco) 3-5
18 Authentic (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 8-1



10/3 (PIM): PREAKNESS

1 Authentic (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez)
2 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux)
3 Art Collector (Tom Drury/Brian Hernandez Jr.)
4 Pneumatic (Steve Asmussen/Joe Bravo)
5 Max Player (Steve Asmussen/Paco Lopez)
6 Excession (Steve Asmussen/Sheldon Russell)
7 Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez)
8 Liveyourbeastlife (Jorge Abreu/Trevor McCarthy)
9 Jesus' Team (Jose D'Angelo/TBA)
10 Country Grammer (Chad Brown/Victor Carrasco)
11 Swiss Skydiver (Ken McPeek/Robby Albarado)

Interested to see Palm Springs progress. And Portos may warrant another try. I wonder if he’ll send either of those.

So far, it may have been a good move for Chance It to scratch today...I guess we’ll see. Spa City looks very good and Sole Volante a good horse...but the Fountain of Youth field may have been a little stronger. I’ll be interested to see if that move pays off.

He could send Market Analysis...he did say that his next start would be a stake. I think I’d run him in the Gotham, but ....As to the FoY, frankly it seems like it came up incredibly weak outside the winner

I forgot about Market Analysis. Yes, the FOY looked strong going it but came back relatively weak. I’m just not sure how good the TB Derby field is wither. Sole Volante got beaten by both As Seen on Tv and Chance It earlier this year...but maybe he likes TB more than Gulfstream. Not sure, but I’m skeptical of everyone outside of Spa City and Chance It.

Todd has lots of 3 year olds to keep track of, lol.

Sometimes a race looks weak and then, later on, it turns out that it was strong. ...

TAMPA BAY DERBY

Sole Volante (Biancone)
Chance It (Joseph)
Spa City (KMc)
Relentless Dancer (Maker)
Mo Mosa (Maker)
Letmeno (Wilkes)
King Guillermo (Avila)
Texas Swing (Pletcher)
Market Analysis (Pletcher)
Unrighteous (Pletcher)
Bye Bye Melvin (Motion)

Very interested to see what Attachment Rate does. His last race was scary good.

Unrighteous at 20-1 is very interesting.

Definitely looks to be sitting on a big one. Fun race

I don’t think there is a morning line yet, is there? I see him at 20-1 on HRN but they are pretty bad at predicting the ML or final odds. I’d definitely be interested in him at 20-1. Same for Spa City who they have at 10-1.

Edit: But then I saw someone from DRF posting the same lines so maybe I’m wrong there. 20-1 would be great.

San Felipe
 

Heading for home, it’s Wrecking Crew all alone by 6 lengths.

Put the pipe down.

To be fair, there is a decent chance that Wrecking Crew finishes alone, behind the rest of the field by 6+ lengths.

With Kiaran McLaughlin retiring, does anyone know who will be training Spa City?

Sorry if Steve has covered this on the show, I haven’t been able to listen at all this week.

Go watch The Sting. You should be embarrassed not knowing the line. You probably would have knew what I was talking about 7 years ago.....when you used to be good. Maybe you will get a second wind this spring and summer. It’s noble work you’re doing.

There's an excellent book ( non-fiction) I read years ago about a rag tag baseball team of recovering addicts and others called Wrecking Crew. Highly recommended.

https://www.amazon.com/Wrecking-Crew...3433507&sr=8-2

Great movie. I haven’t seen it in roughly a decade. No way I’d pick up on that reference.

Does that mean “place it on Lucky Dan “ would draw a blank too ? I’ve watched The Sting once a year since it was at the movie theatre. Never gets old. They don’t make em like that anymore.

That would register...but keep in mind, that movie came out 12 years before I was born. My dad would reference “Place it on Lucky Dan” routinely though so that one would definitely register.

I like when they ask the guy if he wants flat rate or percentage. He asks who the mark is. When they say Doyle Lonegan , the look on his face as he says flat rate is beautiful. Best line of the movie is very tough to narrow down, but, “ what was I supposed to do call him out for cheating better than me in front of the others?”wins in a close one over “ revenge is for suckers.”

For the San Felipe, I see Fort McHenry is now under Doug O’Neill and still vying for the Derby.

Respectfully, no one ever knows what you’re talking about. You’re the babbling village idiot that posts dumb sh.it after you’ve smoked too much.

How are you not even entertaining when you’re high? It’s amazing.

Like I’ve told you many times before Dan, my worst day is light years better than your best. Good luck with all of your fake bets this weekend.

You’re the old fart in OTB talking about how much better everything used to be, right?

So lame...

Da Toss

Says the guy who was so bad picking football that you didn’t even have the balls to track your picks.

Heroic stuff.

Some solid discussions about some big races!!

Mr board cop to the rescue!

The pace scenario for the derby is looking interesting. Authentic, King Guillermo, Ete Indien, and Mischevious Alex each have won their preps on the front end. And we could still add pace to the mix.

By comparison last year you had Tacitus win the TB Derby and Haikal win the Gotham. There was no San Felipe and War of Will had won the Risen Star.

I like Finnick the Fierce going to the Jeff Ruby. I’m guessing he’ll be favored...though Ed DeRosa just listed Invader in his Derby Top 10...

And wow - they may need to split the Louisiana Derby into 4 divisions.

Given the state of the nation, will they run the derby without fans?

2 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg) 122
5 King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila) 90
6 Ete Indien (Patrick Biancone) 74
7 Modernist (Bill Mott) 70
8 Authentic (Bob Baffert) 60
9 Mr. Monomoy (Brad Cox) 52
10 Basin (Steve Asmussen) 50
11 Mischevious Alex (John Servis) 50
12 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr.) 50
13 Shivaree (Ralph Nicks) 40
14 Gouverneur Morris (Todd Pletcher) 34
15 Enforceable (Mark Casse) 33
16 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton) 32
17 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone) 30
18 Major Fed (Greg Foley) 30
19 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert) 25
20 Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez) 25
21 Silver Prospector (Steve Asmussen) 25

Could today be the day ?

6/20 (BEL): Belmont Stakes (9f) 150-60-30-15

Tiz the Law (Tagg)
Sole Volante (Biancone)
Basin (Asmussen)
Farmington Road (Pletcher)
Dr. Post (Pletcher)
Max Player (Rice)
Modernist (Mott)
Ny Traffic (Joseph)*
Shivaree (Nicks)*

I find it interesting that many people automatically assume that the winner of the SA Derby won’t be able to come back in the Belmont because it’s only two weeks later yet nobody thinks anything of horses from the Kentucky Derby running back in the Preakness two weeks later.

Won’t be able to or simply won’t? I don’t see many trainers wanting to ship across the country and run on two weeks rest.

Definitely see a bunch of trainers wanting to ship across the country on two weeks rest when most have missed a prep or two.

As always, you’ve got your finger on the pulse of what’s going on.

This is not a year for a "triple crown" achievement. What was 3 races over 5 weeks is now over 3 + months to complete. While each race has its own reward why you would want to push your horse and just run him when the time is right. I believe it makes the Haskell, SA Derby and others almost equal value to the big 3. A lot can happen between June 6th and September 5th and Oct. 3rd. I think it's a long shot that one horse is winning those 3 races.

Bob Baffert
 

When life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door . -GD

I don't think it's "many people" thinking (or agreeing) with not running back in 2 weeks, but the heavy favorite for the SA Derby is Authentic and Bob Baffert reportedly said that he would not come right back in the Belmont:

The trainer's other prominent 3-year-old, Authentic, will not target the Belmont Stakes as he is booked to run in the Santa Anita Derby on June 6.

The other SA Derby favorite is Honor A.P. trained by John Shirreffs. If the 2 week turnaround isn't enough to dissuade him, certainly the geography (Rocky Mountains in between CA and NY) will...