5/19 (PIM): Preakness Day
 

Turf sprints are the future.
and
Two 3 year old stakes dirt route races back to back is a brilliant move!

Bing Bang Bong!

Superfecta: $1

7 / 1,5 / 1,5,2,4,8 / ALL = $15

LAST YEAR PAID $1,862

PHARAOHS YEAR PAID $1,906

If your bet wins it’s impossible that it pays anywhere near the two examples you provide.

In 2015 the second longest shot on the board finished second and the second betting choice was off the board.

Last year the winner was 13-1 and derby winner off the board.

I’m not criticizing your approach but want you to have realistic expectations.

Maybe I’m doing my math wrong. Isn’t that more than $15?

Absolutely. It's $40.

Question
 

Is the late pick 4 on Preakness day a guaranteed 1M?

I think its $2 million... copied from the Brisnet program
STAKES. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $150,000. Maryland Sprint S.. THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By free subscription. $1,500 to pass the entry box. Free to start, with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 1% to sixth. Weights: Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of $70,000 twice in 2018 allowed 2 lbs.; $70,000 once in 2018, 4 lbs.; $60,000 once in 2018, 6 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and Starter races not considered in estimating allowances). Trophy to the owner of the winner. Nominations Closed Tuesday, May 8, 2018 with 36 nominations. (04:05PM) (9)
Wager Types: EXACTA, 50 cent TRIFECTA & DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 10-11) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12) $2,000,000 GUARANTEE 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 10-11-12-13) / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5

Thx!!

Further muddying the picture...last year, the $1 Superfecta paid: $8,162.80. NOT $1862..( minor details )

even better!...and I don't care if its forty bucks for that prize....

2017....8162
2016...317
2015...1906
2014...174 lowest payout is + $134
2013...1817
2012...425
2011...3016

and on and on and on.....could there be a S'fecta in the last 20 years in the Preakness that paid less than $40? I don't have time for that search.

I don't see how it's a bad bet and I am betting it and I will win!

My bad...I cant fix it now...its in Gods hands.

For a $1 Superfecta:

7 / 1 / 2 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 4 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 5 / ALL = $5
7 / 1 / 8 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 1 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 2 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 4 / ALL = $5
7 / 5 / 8 / ALL = $5

TOTAL OF BETS = $40

I’ll be making some superfectas as well. Hopefully one of the big ones comes out.

Haha. No biggie. I’m always messing up my math on my bets. Luckily I normally figure it out before I hit the window. Or these days, TVG.

I'm not suggesting that it's a bad bet, but...There are 40 ways for you to win and 1,640 ways for you to lose.

Great thread

HA!!! Odds Schmodds...doesn't scare me.

I think Han Solo said it better:

https://tenor.com/view/han-solo-neve...rs-gif-4901664

Pimlico is going to destroy Gulfstream’s record for liberal use of the term “0 MTP” today!

Hahaha. No joke.

Apparently, Chad Brown didn’t like the ride on Good Magic. Funny, because if I would have bet on GM to win, I would have been just fine with it.

Agree completely

POS
#
Horse Win Place Show
1st:
7
Justify $2.80 $2.80 $2.60

2nd:
8
Bravazo $7.60 $4.80

3rd:
6
Tenfold $6.80

4th:
5
Good Magic

5th:
2
Lone Sailor

Pools
Win Place Show
$13,226,987 $3,743,073 $3,620,589 ...went from KD $62,336,448 to PKS $20,590,659...significant drop..[/i][/b]

$2.00 EXACTA 7-8 $27.40
$1.00 TRIFECTA 7-8-6 $148.30
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 7-8-6-5 $372.50
$1.00 SUPERFECTA 7-8-6-5 $372.50
$2.00 SUPERHIGHFIVE 7-8-6-5-2 $2,740.40
$2.00 DAILY DOUBLE 8/7 $4.60
$1.00 PICK 3 3 OF 3 5,6,7,8,10,12,14/1,3,4,7,8,9/7 $7.50
$1.00 PICK 4 4 OF 4 5/5,6,7,8,10,12,14/1,3,4,7,8,9/7 $43.80
$1.00 PICK 5 5 OF 5 3/5/5,6,7,8,10,12,14/1,3,4,7,8,9/7 $169.70
- PICK 6 CarryOver $216,236.59
$1.00 PICK 6 6 OF 6 5/3/5/5,6,7,8,10,12,14/1,3,4,7,8,9/7 $205.20

not one horse paid more than $8.00 to win, the entire day.

unfortunately i kept thinking that trend would be bucked, ALL DAY LONG :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


-BT-

Really?

I wouldn't have been.

Well he wasn't going to win with any other trip (see Derby), so kudos for trying something different and making a race out of it instead of a simple merry-go-round.

I thought preakness day was okay.
i hit the pick3. pick4, and the super...bet 50 left with 130...
turned 1 to 5 into 8 to 5..

what type of ride could you give a colt on a day like that.
if the colt decides to run off angry about his situation, not a lot you can do.

pleased, if appears, there were no broken bones in that mess.

Your record remains intact.

I agree with everything that you just said. I thought Jose did a great job Saturday. I couldn't understand why Chad would be mad at the trip and went back and read some of the quotes and now I think I understand.

It seems like Chad thought their best chance to win the race was if Justify regressed. Have Good Magic run his race no matter how it set up and he was in such good shape that he would have a chance to win if Justify took a step back. Instead Jose called an audible and did the opposite of what Chad wanted. Usually this strategy is applauded in other races, in this case I guess Chad feels like Jose burned his horse up and didn't hit the board while Justify still ended up winning. If Jose rides the race Chad wants, Good Magic is taking his best shot at Justify in the stretch. He most likely runs second, but with Chad's thinking if Justify did regress, maybe Good Magic gets him on the wire.

I don't know if Im correct or not, but I initially didnt think of it like this.

I didn't love it; I just don't think he could have done that much else. Good Magic broke really well and it looked like Smith and Justify never wanted to clear. I guess Jose could have wrangled the horse back some, but then that brings in the possibility of being stuck wide and or behind another horse or two, which didn't seem to be the place to be on Saturday. I think Quip not showing up changed some plans pretty quickly as well.

Do I think the ride cost him 2nd though? Absolutely...and that's where I needed him to finish.

I'd definitely love to hear others' thoughts though.

The only thing he feasibly could have done was stayed out in the five or six path and floated Justify to the turn forcing Mike to have to make a decision, which in all likelihood would have meant using Justify to clear and cut over, and then Good Magic would have been stalking him....and very possibly would have won.

No sane person would suggest that Good Magic is better than Justify, but Saturday was the day to possibly beat him, and with a different scenario, Good Magic may well have done that. As it was, if Diamond Luck hadn't gotten in Tenfold's way, he might have tripped out into the victory.

Justify won on Saturday despite not running nearly his best race, which of course is a tribute to him, and the true mark of a very good race horse. Having said that, there were a couple of scenarios where he would have lost.

Baffert brought exactly this up today on ATR and added it’s why Smith moved for the lead when he did.

Does being contemptuous allow you to sleep at night?

You notice all the yawning ? It takes a lot of energy to be that condescending on a daily basis. A real 24 karat ...-....

There wasn't anything wrong with the Jose ride on GM.
If he doesn't go with Justify early,who does ?
And then what do you have ?
The best 3yo since Pharoah loose...……..making an uncontested lead on a surface he loves ?
At least GM had a small chance of winning pushing Justify early.
If he doesn't engage him hard from the jump,he has no chance.

Good Magic's race positions were 2,2,2,2,4 ....lost by a length. Being on the rail with justify with you every step, I would say he ran a damn good race.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...8&cy=USA&rn=13

What do we make of Bravazo’s finish in here? Seemed done around the far turn. Dropped back to 5th, 7 lengths back at the top of the stretch and finished just a 1/2 length back at the wire.

Could anyone actually tell where he really was top of the stretch? Seven lengths seems unlikely.

Regardless, Bravazo ran OK, but was fourth best, and benefitted from Good Magic's taxing trip dueling inside and Tenfold moving too soon.

:tro: