5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day
 

Just say Mo

Epicenter should be the deserving favorite on Saturday. They gave cool videos on the YouTube that let you watch every race that all the oaks and derby contenders have ever run in order. Other than the changing silks on some hosses which is annoying, you can see them progressing from start to start.

What are people doing with Jack Christopher and Jackie's Warrior?

On paper, they look like logical singles. If Jack Christopher runs back to his 2 year old form he wins this pretty easy, I gotta think. Not a ton of speed in here either. But still...I want to play against him.

Same with Jackie's Warrior. He looks like he'll get (for him) an easy lead. But his prep for this wasn't great and it makes me think he might be vulnerable late. I don't want Aloha West or Prevalence. That leaves Cezanne, I guess.

Is trying to beat these two a good idea or should I just take the free squares and look for value elsewhere?

I want to see what the weather is and the track condition. Not sure JC will like an off track.

1-Taiba

2-Charge It

3-Epicenter

4-Zandon

5-Mo Donegal

6-Smile Happy

7-White Albarrio

8-Cyberknife

9-Messier

Cox/Baffert...I mean Cox/Yakteen exacta box, its like deja vu all over again

I'm all about Taiba and Mike Smith:$::$::$::tro:

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Sonny Leon just won the Derby

:wf

Love it.

Nobody wants to hear a sorry ass horse player bitch & moan over a tough beat, so I'll just say that I almost won a lot of money.

That Is All

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.

Isn't that the problem? We'll see how he runs back but come on. I heard Randy Moss say that this is what happens when you have a pace like we had today but we had some of the best closers in recent Derby memory not close like he closed. He out closed Mo Donegal? Really? I haven't watched the replay yet but that seems far fetched unless Mo got stopped somewhere along the way. This was just one of those moments that makes you question (with all of your being) why you've chosen this to be your hobby.

And if I have to hear about that ride one more freaking time...that ride should not have mattered. That ride should have gotten him 10th, which would've been an outstanding run from him.

I hope they test this horse like he was a Baffert winning his 100th Derby. At least they would make sense. Otherwise...

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.

Agree. The two horses that I thought had the best chances at winning would have been 1-2 but for a freaky run from Rich Strike, a run that I will be shocked if he ever repeats it.

I've been thinking all night that if Zandon couldn't win with that setup he never could beat this bunch. After reading your post I concede that it was because he was closer to the pace that cost him. Mid stretch it looked like he was going to put Epicenter away and just flattened.

:tro::tro::tro:

Reverse is true too. Rich Strike also doesn't win with Irad riding him.

BloodHorse reports that Rich Strike is the first Derby winner to have been claimed. Has any Derby winner ever come into the race off AE status?

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

I thought the strategy was fine. They needed to be closer to epicenter if they had a chance to beat him. Unfortunately pace got moving faster than expected.

He finished less than a length behind Epicenter so it wasn’t a terrible strategy. But…and this is with hindsight obviously…but the race certainly looked like it would have a pretty strong early pace.

But again, hindsight. And who knows if he runs into any trouble if he sits further back.

Agreed, they had a plan and followed it. In retrospect, I think if they were not committed to being closer, than they probably win.

Then again, without the crazy early pace Epicenter probably wins by open lengths.

Also, anyone faulting Irad should watch the overhead view NBC had. He could not have followed the eventual winner.

Credit due to Sonny Leon. He rode a flawless Derby. You really see how brilliant it was on the overhead view.

I thought Zozos ran really well also. 30 grand becomes 5 million in 9 months for the connections, somebody hit the horsey lottery.

That overhead view should be required for any major track.
There is no excuse not to use the best modern technology.

https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status...04042427334660

I was surprised that Mo Donegal did not roll by everyone on the outside. Looked like Epicenter withstood the challenge of Zandon because he is a very good hoss. I thought that when the jock saw the winner inside of him late, he was thinking who thefuc is that ?

This is remarkably clueless. Who exactly is going to pay to have the blimp overhead every day? Do you know how much that costs?

While I don’t see it necessary for routine races only for big events like the derby this could be done easily with drones.

I'm not an expert or even know WTF I am talking about but thinking out loud that they can do it on the cheap with Drones. But probably lots of issues that I am not even considering.

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

Uh, ever hear of drones
They have overhead views at Santa Anita, do they use a blimp?
Remarkably innovative of that track......

Yeah he really "freaked" in that 30k claimer.

It's like you're allergic to saying intelligent things.

Not really faulting Irad but I do think he had an option to take the route Rich Strike did. Mo Donegal was ahead of Rich Strike when Rich Strike started moving, passed Mo on the outside then went back inside and started weaving through traffic. Mo made his move after that.

I’m not sure if Mo Donegal would have weaved through traffic or hit those holes the same way…because they opened and closed fairly quickly. It’s hindsight and oddly enough Irad ran into some traffic on the outside, iirc, when White Abarrio moved out. If he tried to go inside and got jammed up, people would probably be slamming him today.

Sonny Leon/Rich Strike had nothing to lose and just ran a great race and got a little luck to help out. I still can’t believe that happened.