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-   -   #2 Tahitian Warrior 1-1 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37818)

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 09:19 AM

#2 Tahitian Warrior 1-1
 
Is a total toss out for me today, he wins, I wont cash a late pick 3 or 4.

Look at who he beat last time, look at what the horses who have run back have done.
Now look at the Todd/Ramon... Look at who he faced, forced to press a hot pace the entire time. Even though he never has, I think this guy can rate a little. Desert Key came back and looked like the old Desert Key improving his beyer 22 points. The winner came back and ran huge here last week improving his beyer 11 points. Wesley Wards horse is important as well.
The race has to stay together, to many scratches could hurt.

MaTH716 08-16-2010 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 683558)
Is a total toss out for me today, he wins, I wont cash a late pick 3 or 4.

Look at who he beat last time, look at what the horses who have run back have done.
Now look at the Todd/Ramon... Look at who he faced, forced to press a hot pace the entire time. Even though he never has, I think this guy can rate a little. Desert Key came back and looked like the old Desert Key improving his beyer 22 points. The winner came back and ran huge here last week improving his beyer 11 points. Wesley Wards horse is important as well.
The race has to stay together, to many scratches could hurt.

But weren't you all over Trappe Shot a couple of weeks ago? Tahitian Warrior only lost to him by four after coming back from Dubai.

hockey2315 08-16-2010 09:30 AM

Wouldn't the Ward horse hurt your horse?

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 683562)
But weren't you all over Trappe Shot a couple of weeks ago? Tahitian Warrior only lost to him by four after coming back from Dubai.


When Math? Show me when, I said 2 horses could win the Haskell. They ran 1-2, I said I was heavily leaning towards Lucky. I said Trappe Shot is talented, in a bad crop.

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 683563)
Wouldn't the Ward horse hurt your horse?


Not if my horse can rate, like I think he can.

MaTH716 08-16-2010 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 683564)
When Math? Show me when, I said 2 horses could win the Haskell. They ran 1-2, I said I was heavily leaning towards Lucky. I said Trappe Shot is talented, in a bad crop.

From 7/16
Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 670041)
I said one could argue.... ARGUE, not talking facts. I would take Fly Down 10/10 times vs Super Saver and like I said Lucky and Trappe Shot are the real deal for sure. Its like your trying to make me look bad, but this time I really said nothing to warrant it. Personally, I would take Trappe Shot, Concord Point and Lucky vs ANY OF THEM. Its just an argument, we wont know till the end of the year who was really best, or at least the end of the Travers-Haskell-Dandy triple

All I'm trying to say is that you are talking about past company lines and you are all of a sudden discounting a horse that you thought was the real deal.

knickslions2 08-16-2010 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 683558)
Is a total toss out for me today, he wins, I wont cash a late pick 3 or 4.

Look at who he beat last time, look at what the horses who have run back have done.
Now look at the Todd/Ramon... Look at who he faced, forced to press a hot pace the entire time. Even though he never has, I think this guy can rate a little. Desert Key came back and looked like the old Desert Key improving his beyer 22 points. The winner came back and ran huge here last week improving his beyer 11 points. Wesley Wards horse is important as well.
The race has to stay together, to many scratches could hurt.

I wouldn't toss him off pick 3 or 4 tickets. Good luck!

hockey2315 08-16-2010 09:57 AM

1,6,8 are out. . . making it a 5-horse field.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-16-2010 09:58 AM

Tahitian Warrior has much better early speed than the Pletcher horse.

Yeah, Desert Key came out of that last race and improved his Beyer 22 points, big deal - if you saw the race, Desert Key went to his knees at the start and absolutely lost all chance.

It started as a four horse field - and after Desert Key almost fell - it was basically reduced to a match race between Jackontherocks and Uwannapieceofthis .. which Jackontherocks easily managed to win.

In his next start, Jackontherocks was dogged down despite a loose early lead by that cool Suffolk Downs horse that debuted for a 4.5K tag in his MCL win.

MaTH716 08-16-2010 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 683580)
1,6,8 are out. . . making it a 5-horse field.

I thought the Levine horse (#6) was interesting.

hockey2315 08-16-2010 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 683582)
I thought the Levine horse (#6) was interesting.

Ya me too.

tiggerv 08-16-2010 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 683581)
Tahitian Warrior has much better early speed than the Pletcher horse.

I was about to post the same thing. The Pletcher isn't as fast early as the Ward horse or Tahitian Warrior.

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv (Post 683584)
I was about to post the same thing. The Pletcher isn't as fast early as the Ward horse or Tahitian Warrior.

Thats my entire point, and why I said I think Todd can and will rate.

pucknut 08-16-2010 11:47 AM

this is a goofy race but doesnt taihiti tower over these in terms of speed
and with the rain doesnt that further amp the edge
sometimes ya gotta take what the track gives you
2/57

pointman 08-16-2010 11:50 AM

Looks to me that Tahitian Warrior lays over this field.

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 12:00 PM

We are talking about a 2-5 chalk, and this spot makes no sense. If he is that good, why not run in the Kings Bishop. I dont buy the Discreetly Mine argument, who else is going there? Whats wrong with second at worse?
I will lose money if he wins, because he wont be on my pick 4 ticket.

hockey2315 08-16-2010 12:12 PM

They paid $2 million for him. . . and he's a gelding. Why assume that there's a logical explanation behind what they do?

pucknut 08-16-2010 12:26 PM

winning a race at toga is prestige enough
so is the theory he just doesnt fire
because if he does there is no one going with him
i think the horse is even money at worst
pleatcher and ward have enough diciples to dilute the tahiti pool

RockHardTen1985 08-16-2010 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pucknut (Post 683660)
winning a race at toga is prestige enough
so is the theory he just doesnt fire
because if he does there is no one going with him
i think the horse is even money at worst
pleatcher and ward have enough diciples to dilute the tahiti pool

LOL this is funny.

At the time of the race, POST TIME... He will be around 3-5, maybe lower.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-16-2010 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 683649)
They paid $2 million for him. . . and he's a gelding. Why assume that there's a logical explanation behind what they do?

When you consider that he was RNA'd for just $4,500 as a yearling - and his dam broke down after about seven jumps in her only career race - and all of his siblings have been flops ... thankfully he was gelded instead of being given an opportunity to further pollute the breed.

But yeah, how do you pay $2 million for a gelding? Even after a debut win as good as his?


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