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-   -   8/19 (DMR): Pacific Classic, DMR Oaks (G1's), DMR Handicap (G2) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=62909)

cakes44 08-19-2017 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097991)
Did he run 1 teen beyers? Because im pretty sure Arrogate just ran in the 110-115 range.

110, 112, and 111 post Dubai before the BCC for Curlin.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1097993)
110, 112, and 111 post Dubai before the BCC for Curlin.

I dont remember him being that fast. When did he run 2nd to Red Rocks? Was that post Dubai?

cakes44 08-19-2017 09:15 PM

Well yeah...on turf.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1097996)
Well yeah...on turf.

I know.

cakes44 08-19-2017 09:19 PM

My comparison as much as anything is...doesn't seem like the horse is quite the same after Dubai, and the BCC is also on a track where it seems the horse is at a disadvantage. Comparing the merits and abilities of each horse is another discussion for another thread.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1097998)
My comparison as much as anything is...doesn't seem like the horse is quite the same after Dubai, and the BCC is also on a track where it seems the horse is at a disadvantage. Comparing the merits and abilities of each horse is another discussion for another thread.

Its fair. Im not really arguing it.

knickslions2 08-19-2017 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 1097992)
I'm not totally convinced that it is the track, particularly considering both Baffert and Smith's reaction.

It's not the track. The horse ran a few great races buts that's it. He got a pass for last race not being ready but he was beat fair and square today by a horse that is getting better each race. He is very over rated based on four races. I'd be surprised if he runs again.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1098003)
It's not the track. The horse ran a few great races buts that's it. He got a pass for last race not being ready but he was beat fair and square today by a horse that is getting better each race. He is very over rated based on four races. I'd be surprised if he runs again.

Is 4 a few? And what was today if you're Collected is so good?
Calling him overrated shows a lack of understanding from you. I thought you were sharper, but as time goes on Im not so sure.

knickslions2 08-19-2017 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098004)
Is 4 a few? And what was today if you're Collected is so good?
Calling him overrated shows a lack of understanding from you. I thought you were sharper, but as time goes on Im not so sure.

Give collected his due. He was excellent today and the best horse out there now.I can't believe you as a baffert fan don't see that. Again arrogate had a nice few races but I like horses that run more often and win more . Four races doesn't make me think greatness sorry. I really don't care if you think I'm sharp or not. I play this game cause I enjoy it. I have ups and downs. You mocked me when I said connected would win. Arrogate had a exciting four races but great horses don't blame tracks when they lose.

Kasept 08-19-2017 11:29 PM

Privman PacClassic recap with Baffert reactions: http://www.drf.com/news/collected-ho...acific-classic

2:00.3 10f efforts looking like 112 Beyer for Collected, 111 for Arrogate per Jay..

Merlinsky 08-19-2017 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1098003)
It's not the track. The horse ran a few great races buts that's it. He got a pass for last race not being ready but he was beat fair and square today by a horse that is getting better each race. He is very over rated based on four races. I'd be surprised if he runs again.

Smith said he was having trouble getting ahold of it. He can't push off as well. He did better this time so it's possible to work on it vs concede he's doomed. Baffert seemed to believe he could get him ready off a layoff. He's basically got til November to teach Arrogate to learn to tolerate Del Mar. I get the feeling if he spends enough time working over it, he'll get to a place of making peace with the track. He'll never love it, but he might be able to do well enough that he can still win.

I think Baffert was loathe to just go 'ugh the track, he hates it' in part because the minute you say that, there's a point where you just don't get to go to the Breeders Cup. Because why would you if he's gonna tank it due to the track? If he doesn't want to bypass the Classic, he has to find a way to deal with it, and I think we saw enough that he can justify pressing on and making whatever adjustments he can. Arrogate did better when he was hussled. Clearly that's part of what's required.

Indian Charlie 08-20-2017 01:37 AM

Baffert should consider Arrogates next workout being at Santa Anita. If he looks really sharp, then its safe to say its the surface. Work him out again at DMR to make sure.

Then again, whats the point? If it is DMR, where would they run him? If it's not DMR, why would they run him? In other words, just retire him.

taxicab 08-20-2017 02:15 AM

Collected is now 7 for 7 on the fast.
He's really,really good now............nothing counterfeit about him.
He might give Gun Runner a run for his money.
I wonder what happened to Arrogate's early lick ?
Today's trip for Arrogate was very similar to his BC Classic go,he just wasn't up to the winner.
It kind of looks like Arrogate needs to be pushed along now to get his best run........I'm not sure what to make of that.
Arrogate might not care for DMR,but nobody will know if he's near the same horse until he tries another track in this,his second season.........and that's not on his menu.
Accelerate seems a perfect fit for the BC Dirt Mile,he enjoys the 8th furlong a lot more than the 10th.........plus he's fond of DMR,and of course the competition will be easier.

Rupert Pupkin 08-20-2017 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1098009)
Smith said he was having trouble getting ahold of it. He can't push off as well. He did better this time so it's possible to work on it vs concede he's doomed. Baffert seemed to believe he could get him ready off a layoff. He's basically got til November to teach Arrogate to learn to tolerate Del Mar. I get the feeling if he spends enough time working over it, he'll get to a place of making peace with the track. He'll never love it, but he might be able to do well enough that he can still win.

I think Baffert was loathe to just go 'ugh the track, he hates it' in part because the minute you say that, there's a point where you just don't get to go to the Breeders Cup. Because why would you if he's gonna tank it due to the track? If he doesn't want to bypass the Classic, he has to find a way to deal with it, and I think we saw enough that he can justify pressing on and making whatever adjustments he can. Arrogate did better when he was hussled. Clearly that's part of what's required.

I am skeptical that his below par performances are due to the track. Don't get me wrong. I am a big believer in horses for courses and in horses not liking certain tracks. I'm just not sure that this is one of those cases. But let's assume you are right and Arrogate doesn't like the surface. I have never heard of horses improving on surfaces that they don't like. If a horse doesn't like a track he's not going to improve over it with practice.

knickslions2 08-20-2017 09:26 AM

115 beyer for collected

-BT- 08-20-2017 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097695)
I think he is a mortal lock. Why not retire him? He's running because he is ready.

This............................


-bt-

RHT2004 08-20-2017 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1098024)
This............................


-bt-

Yeah the horse ran a 115 beyer chasing wide. Every expert around says he's not the same, and he missed by a half. But you come out to post this. LOL

-BT- 08-20-2017 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098029)
Yeah the horse ran a 115 beyer chasing wide. Every expert around says he's not the same, and he missed by a half. But you come out to post this. LOL

You said he was a "mortal lock"
- he lost on the square, don't care if he ran a 180 beyer

You said he's running because "he is ready"
- he wasn't

So which is it? He's not the same but you're touting his 115 beyer ... it's the same in the selections thread, when you win you plug all those " $$ winning" results. When you lose, it's a bad beat or someone else's fault, when you can't finish out the sequence "one time for the kid".

I sincerely wish I lived in your world, where the word accountability only applies when you're right. Eat your crow and move on, or keep touting "mortal locks" and get taken to task when they don't pan out, your choice.

-bt-

ateamstupid 08-20-2017 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1098003)
It's not the track. The horse ran a few great races buts that's it. He got a pass for last race not being ready but he was beat fair and square today by a horse that is getting better each race. He is very over rated based on four races. I'd be surprised if he runs again.

This is insane. He ran a 114 Beyer and lost by a diminishing half-length while covering 51 more feet than the winner. The idea that that's some huge disappointment should tell you that he is the opposite of "very overrated."

RHT2004 08-20-2017 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 1098035)
This is insane. He ran a 114 Beyer while covering 51 more feet than the winner. The idea that that's some huge disappointment should tell you that he is the opposite of "very overrated."

Thanks.

knickslions2 08-20-2017 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098036)
Thanks.

What's the thanks for? Did he send you some more monopoly cash to make more $600 fake bets in selection thread?

In response to ateam did I exaggerate of course. This db makes it hard to like Arrogate and deserves to get his nuts busted. He ruins most threads and it's getting old. As for Arrogate he ran much better indeed but collected deserves Praise for this effort when most said distance was too much.

3kings 08-20-2017 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098036)
Thanks.

Why are you saying thank you to Ateam? Everything he said is correct but you didn't say any of that. You said Arrogate was a mortal lock. You scoffed at the idea that Collected would get the 1 1/4. You said it was silly when I said that Baffert wouldn't have entered Collected if he knew Arrogate was 100%. You were wrong but you will never admit it. People who post imaginary bets, dump $2000 on a Friday and continue to just up their bet amounts till one eventually hits just don't admit they are wrong. Dahoss had you pegged years ago and he was right. Keep posting imaginary bets, bet at the OTB in your backyard, bet $100 WPS when there is no show pool. We get it, this is the only way you can get attention. So in spite of having a decent opinion most people on here that have followed your wagers will continue to think you are a clown.

RHT2004 08-20-2017 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1098037)
What's the thanks for? Did he send you some more monopoly cash to make more $600 fake bets in selection thread?

In response to ateam did I exaggerate of course. This db makes it hard to like Arrogate and deserves to get his nuts busted. He ruins most threads and it's getting old. As for Arrogate he ran much better indeed but collected deserves Praise for this effort when most said distance was too much.

You have called him overrated multiple times, talking about 4 good races. Someone other then me calls you out and you back off. Be a man.....

knickslions2 08-20-2017 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098042)
You have called him overrated multiple times, talking about 4 good races. Someone other then me calls you out and you back off. Be a man.....

Be a man??! Are you serious? Does being a man make up **** to get attention? I respect ateam and he knows what my point is here.

RHT2004 08-20-2017 02:37 PM

Why dont we stick to racing and drop the personal crap.
Arrogate is better. He chased wide while Collected dictated things. Collected ran OK. Better then i thought he would. Fair?

knickslions2 08-20-2017 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098047)
Why dont we stick to racing and drop the personal crap.
Arrogate is better. He chased wide while Collected dictated things. Collected ran OK. Better then i thought he would. Fair?

I'll talk racing. Collected ran better then okay . 115 beyer ain't bad

RHT2004 08-20-2017 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1098053)
I'll talk racing. Collected ran better then okay . 115 beyer ain't bad

He's turned into a nice horse.

Alabama Stakes 08-20-2017 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1098055)
He's turned into a nice horse.

Always was a nice hoss. Try reading The form

cakes44 08-20-2017 04:04 PM

So exactly why did Smith choose to run wide? He had many chances to tuck him in, and definitely lost the horse more than a half-length of ground going around there.

-BT- 08-20-2017 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1098064)
So exactly why did Smith choose to run wide? He had many chances to tuck him in, and definitely lost the horse more than a half-length of ground going around there.

For those who actually watched the race, it didn't matter if the horse was wide or glued to the rail, Smith was working on that horse long before the top of the stretch. From there, you can then blame Smith for a bad ride, but we won't hear that from anyone, bc it in fact wasn't a bad ride, the horse just didn't fire, again.

From a gambling standpoint, and ultimately the reason we all play this game, this horse has been overrated in BOTH his last 2 starts @ 1-9 and 3-5, based on the simple fact that he didn't win.

-bt-

declansharbor 08-20-2017 04:51 PM

RHT yet again gettin' beat up from the feet up, but how many horses on earth could run a 115 beyer and still be getting lumped into the "failed to fire" category? None? ... We can all agree on him tossing a clunker in the SD Hcp, obv, but is it too far out of the realm of possibility that the horse's time on the shelf did him ZERO good? He looked beyond short first off the bench, and yesterday he fell just short of wrangling in an improving horse that looked comfortable while setting fractions that wouldn't be deemed 'skull busting' in a G1.

Is Arrogate the all-time great most were declaring him to be after his come from behind in Dubai? Probably not. I think his win in Dubai, seeing that it wasn't in his usual up-front style, catapulted his status in the eyes of a lot of racing talking heads (ESP in an era where people are just frothing at the mouth to declare horses as all-time greats).

I said it in a previous post about Arrogate after his last loss. I highly doubt he catches California Chrome in the Classic had it not been for Smith going to the right hand stick mid stretch. Smith didn't employ the right hand stick yesterday until Collected had the race won already (Smith DID smack him right handed on the turn for home but then went lefty to keep him from drifting into Accelerate). I truly believe that has at LEAST something to do with his half length loss last night.

ateamstupid 08-20-2017 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1098068)
For those who actually watched the race, it didn't matter if the horse was wide or glued to the rail, Smith was working on that horse long before the top of the stretch. From there, you can then blame Smith for a bad ride, but we won't hear that from anyone, bc it in fact wasn't a bad ride, the horse just didn't fire, again.

From a gambling standpoint, and ultimately the reason we all play this game, this horse has been overrated in BOTH his last 2 starts @ 1-9 and 3-5, based on the simple fact that he didn't win.

-bt-

:zz::zz::zz:

The internet was a mistake.

NTamm1215 08-20-2017 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1098068)
For those who actually watched the race, it didn't matter if the horse was wide or glued to the rail, Smith was working on that horse long before the top of the stretch. From there, you can then blame Smith for a bad ride, but we won't hear that from anyone, bc it in fact wasn't a bad ride, the horse just didn't fire, again.

From a gambling standpoint, and ultimately the reason we all play this game, this horse has been overrated in BOTH his last 2 starts @ 1-9 and 3-5, based on the simple fact that he didn't win.

-bt-

He lost a Grade I by a neck and got a 114 Beyer. If you think he didn't fire, I can't put it more simply - you're wrong.

herkhorse 08-20-2017 05:32 PM

If he fired, how come Baffert was so disappointed?

knickslions2 08-20-2017 05:35 PM

Pretty amazing how many different opinions came out of this single race.

King Glorious 08-20-2017 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 1098016)
I am skeptical that his below par performances are due to the track. Don't get me wrong. I am a big believer in horses for courses and in horses not liking certain tracks. I'm just not sure that this is one of those cases. But let's assume you are right and Arrogate doesn't like the surface. I have never heard of horses improving on surfaces that they don't like. If a horse doesn't like a track he's not going to improve over it with practice.

That's exactly how I feel. I was taught years ago that horses like or dislike tracks for different reasons. Maybe they have trouble getting the footing. Maybe the track stings their feet. Any number of reasons. I was also taught that the best effort a horse will give on a track they don't like is the first race. Horses make mental notes and they try to protect themselves and the more they run on something that's not comfortable, the worse they will do.

NTamm1215 08-20-2017 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse (Post 1098083)
If he fired, how come Baffert was so disappointed?

I would imagine because he expected him to win. Perhaps he was underrating Collected's performance as well. His interview with Nick Luck before the race was awkward. He ignored his question about what happened in the San Diego and just sort of talked around everything he was asked.

richard burch 08-20-2017 11:30 PM

While I don't think he is the same horse anymore I would still bet him in the BC if he runs. It an only give the gambler better odds with all this losing.

Could be another Tiznow who ran two third place finishes before winning the BC.

Dunbar 08-21-2017 09:30 AM

Got a laugh out of Baffert as quoted in Bloodhorse:

"We watched the races a few times, and Collected still won."

Alabama Stakes 08-21-2017 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 1098080)
He lost a Grade I by a neck and got a 114 Beyer. If you think he didn't fire, I can't put it more simply - you're wrong.

The problem with the beyers guys is that being math nerds, they don't factor in the hoss flesh part of it. Something is bothering that hoss. His ears pinned back before the race showed his displeasure, and he ran like it. If he was right, he woulda smoked that hoss. It only shows he can run a 113 pissed off.


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