Don't Look Amateurish By Falling Into The 4YO vs 3YO Trap
 

I posted this message on another thread ... but I also feel it's worthy of a thread of its own ...

People ... people ... people ...

... please don't fall into the amateurish trap of comparing performances by 4YOS to performances by 3YOS.

All these folks who use the great races of Spectacular Bid or Seattle Slew or Dr. Fager as yardsticks for comparisons to Secretariat or Bernardini ... are falling into that silly trap.

None of those three great horses did anything extraordinary as 3YOS ... all of their mindblowing races came as 4YOS.

The 3YO Bernardini is every bit as good ... or in fact much better ... than the 3YO Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew, or Dr. Fager.

The 3YO Secretariat blew the wheels off any horse of any age. Only the evil doings of worldwide socialism prevented us from seeing even more sensational performances from him as a 4YO.

Please ... don't make fools of yourselves by posting such nonsense again.

I do believe you've gone Goo-Goo....I love it! :)
Bernardini is amazing.........

could you please go further in depth about how the 'evil doings of worldwide socialism' played a role in Secretariat's racing career?

I've explained this countless times ... but if you missed it ...

Secretariat's owner ... C.T. Chenery ... died over the winter between Secretariat's 2YO and 3YO years. In 1973 ... there were still pre-Reagan, onerous socialist death taxes ... which the Chenery estate had to pay.

The only way they could raise enough cash to pay the taxes was to syndicate Secretariat for stud. The family ... headed by Penny Chenery (Tweedy) ... wanted to race Secretariat as a 4YO ... but the breeding investors would only fork up if Secretariat were retired after his 3YO campaign.

Secretariat was syndicated for a then-record $6 million ... BEFORE he raced as a 3YO. After his spectacular 3YO performances ... he could have been syndicated for $40 million.

So ... the socialist death taxes screwed the Chenery family out of over $30 million dollars ... and screwed all of us out of seeing Secretariat race as a 4YO.

It's 33 years later ... and I'm still seething over this. Another spectacularly stupid failure of socialism.

Hey sister ...

... you were a regular on the "other" forum ...

... so you know darn well that I was the first person on this planet ... back on March 7 ... to publicly state that Bernardini was a special colt and the most talented 3YO in the country.

Me ... a Bernardini goo-goo? Hey ... I INVENTED Bernardini goo-gooism ... you and the rest ... as always ... merely attempt to flounder in my abundant wake.

Bobo,

I don't necessarily understand the point...

There doesn't seem to be any reason NOT to compare Bernardini's exploits so far to Dr. Fager's (at three), or how about Damascus'? Actually, a horse at three he resembles a bit in terms of accomplishment might be Conquistador Cielo.

Why can't comparisons be made through the respective career arcs?

theres another forum?

BB, you are correct sir and here are the stats from my data base of 110 or so champion racehorses going back to 1900.

Avg imp 3yo vs 2yo - 14 lengths (projected to 10fl)
Avg imp 4&up vs 3yo - 4 lengths (projected to 10fl)

About 70% of horses that went on to race as older horses improved their average running times. About half of the 30% that did not improve had injury related issues. In summary, there is a 70%-85% chance that a horse will improve as a 4yo by an average of 4 lengths as compared to his 3yo season. Here is the data on the specific horses you mentioned (4yo vs 3yo seasons):

Slew - improved 4 lengths (projected to 10fl)
Bid - improved 6.8 lengths (projected to 10fl)
Fager - improved 5.6 lengths (projected to 10fl)

When posters compare Bernardini to say, Spectacular Bid ... they really have the 4YO campaign of Spectacular Bid in mind ... in which he blasted track records to pieces and destroyed his competition.

Spectacular Bid was a great 3YO champion .... but he didn't set the world on fire then. Bernardini's 3YO campaign ... especially if he wins the BC Classic ... is at least as good ... if not better than ... Spectacular Bid's 3YO campaign ...

... and just as good or better than other great 3YOS ... like Damascus, Sword Dancer, Art And Letters, Buckpasser, Kelso, Bold Ruler, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, etc. ...

... as good or better than everyone other than Secretariat, Citation, and Man O' War.

There have been 4YOS who had better records than Bernardini has this year ... but that's a false comparison. Let's wait to see what Bernardini does as a 4YO ... God/Allah and the Sheikh willing ... before making those comparisions.

P.S. The best comparison to 3YO Bernardini would be Kelso ... a late-starting 3YO who swept everything in sight ... including defeating older horses ... in the Fall.

I love you. You introduced me to Bernie(I played him way back in the Preakness, since he is a Slew, too.). There are forums besides this making that unfair stretch of comparing this magnificent three-year-old to the older Ghostzapper!:confused:

citation beat the older and reigning horse of the year before he left florida--it was in february i believe, and months before 'big cy' won the triple crown. they don't make them like they used to!!
as for secretariat, he lost two of his three races against older. that's blowing wheels off???
seattle slew continued his unbeaten streak into and through the triple crown. bern lost his first start. i'll take the unbeaten tc winner, thanks very much.

Slew is my favorite, period. His two grandsons look pretty good from where I sit, however.:)

love, LOVE seattle slew. now that was a horse! my first breyer i bought was him. have a pic of him grazing by his monument at three chimneys hanging on my office wall.

Saying that Secretariat would have been syndicated for 40 million if he raced as a 4yo is the most absurd statement I have read on this forum. BBB

Secretariat won three of five starts against older horses ... easily defeating three older Eclipse Award winners ... Riva Ridge, Key To The Mint, and Cougar ... and one Canadian Horse Of The Year ... Kennedy Road.

Seattle Slew was undefeated in six starts as a 3YO through the Triple Crown ... but he started one more time ... against other 3YOS ... and finished fourth beaten by 16 lengths.

Overall ... I'd give a higher rating to a 3YO (Bernardini) who finishes second in his first race ... and then romps off in his next six starts ... including two against the best older horses available (soon to happen) ...

... than a 3YO (Seattle Slew) who wins his first six starts and then gets a drubbing in his seventh ... never having faced an older horse.

Wouldn't you?

i read recently he lost two of three....guess i'll have to go back to my t'bred legends book.
slew should never have run in the swaps, something the owners just couldn't get thru their heads. duh. than he laid out, and then slew almost died from colitis x. still managed to come back at four for one heck of a campaign. three years a champ. i'll take his three stunning seasons right now. and of course we all KNOW how that story ended. bernie is still writing his. check back with me when he's got FIN on his last page.

As an apparent Seatlle Slew lover ...

... why aren't you bursting with pride over the spectacular success of his grandson ... Bernardini?

Bernardini was off the board in his first start. ;)

oh i think bernardini is doing a great job. but you're talking to a cynical skeptical realist. i'm also with somer as far as not slapping a label on any horse til they're done. i've seen too many horses who seemed to be one thing, who put on some amazing performances, only to be shown as being mere mortals. it's why when we have buzz every year on the new filly to take on colts at churchill i scoff. and why i roll my eyes at the suggestion that the derby winner is GUARANTEED to win the t.c. cause this is the year.

i'm enjoying watching bernardini. crossing my fingers we get to see a lot more of him. and then hopefully he'll take over where his old man leaves off in the shed. ap indy has certainly done very well taking slew down the road!

Thanks for reminding me ... he finished fourth ...

... that makes a HUGE difference ... BERNARDINI SUCKS !!!