Live Derby Odds
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1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 18-1
2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 38-1 3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 14-1 4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 28-1 5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 5-1 6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 22-1 7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 9-2 8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 5-1 9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 50-1 10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Smith) 21-1 13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 13-1 14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1 15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 49-1 16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 6-1 17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 9-1 18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 44-1 19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 53-1 20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 70-1 21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 99-1 |
With $1 million in the win pool, Maximum Security is still a narrow favorite over Improbable and Tacitus. From the Oaks/Derby will-pays and the current exacta will pays, with $720K in the exacta pool, it looks like Improbable will emerge as the Derby favorite, followed by Tacitus and Maximum Security. If so, then the ML favorite, Game Winner, would actually be 4th in the betting.
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First, it's impugned.. But unfortunately, that's not the word you wanted. Which was imputed. Pitch till you win! |
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If you compare exacta payoffs of the 4 of them, here's how often each of them has the lowest payoff when in the 1st position of the exacta: (indicating, most favored) Imp: 9 Tac: 4 GW: 4 MS: 2 And here's how often each of them had the highest payoff, indicating least favored: Tac: 0 Imp: 2 MS: 8 GW: 9 Having looked at it more closely, it does look like GW will edge out MS for 3rd favorite. |
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You can use a horse's exacta odds to construct the equivalent of a win bet. The odds you get that way will usually be lower than that horse's actual win odds because of the bigger takeout in the exact pool. But doing it that way, I get these odds for those 4 horses: Imp: 3.9-1 Tac: 4.5-1 GW: 4.6-1 MS: 5.1-1 So, looking at it that way, GW looks closer to Tacitus than I thought. |
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