3/31-4/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Pool 4
 

(from https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._4_roster..pdf )

Ky. Derby Futures Pool 4 odds

1 Always Dreaming Todd Pletcher 50-1
2 Battalion Runner Todd Pletcher 30-1
3 Battle of Midway* Jerry Hollendorfer 50-1
4 Classic Empire Mark Casse 12-1
5 Cloud Computing* Chad Brown 15-1
6 El Areeb Cal Lynch 30-1

7 Girvin* Joe Sharp 30-1
8 Gormley John Shirreffs 20-1
9 Guest Suite (g) Neil Howard 50-1
10 Gunnevera Antonio Sano 6-1
11 Iliad (r) Doug O’Neill 15-1
12 Irish War Cry Graham Motion 15-1

13 J Boys Echo* Dale Romans 10-1
14 Malagacy Todd Pletcher 30-1
15 McCraken Ian Wilkes 6-1
16 Mo Town Tony Dutrow 50-1
17 One Liner Todd Pletcher 10-1
18 Practical Joke Chad Brown 12-1

19 Reach the World* Bob Baffert 50-1
20 State of Honor Mark Casse 50-1
21 Tapwrit Todd Pletcher 10-1
22 Thunder Snow (Ire)* Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
23 Untrapped* Steve Asmussen 50-1
24 Mutuel Field (All Others) 10-1

Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia

* - new wagering interest in KDFW Pool 4; (g) – gelding (r)- ridgling



This list shows the closing odds in the 3 previous pools, too. (From DRF.com)

No. Horse Trainer P4 M/L P3 odds P2 odds P1 odds

1. Always Dreaming T. Pletcher 50-1 42-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
2. Batallion Runner T. Pletcher 30-1 34-1 22-1 6-5(f)
3. Battle of Midway J. Hollendorfer 50-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
4. Classic Empire M. Casse 12-1 11-1 5-1 6-1
5. Cloud Computing C. Brown 15-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
6. El Areeb C. Lynch 30-1 20-1 32-1 6-5(f)

7. Girvin J. Sharp 30-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
8. Gormley J. Shirreffs 20-1 18-1 19-1 37-1
9. Guest Suite N. Howard 50-1 60-1 31-1 6-5(f)
10. Gunnevera A. Sano 6-1 22-1 24-1 22-1
11. Iliad D. O’Neill 15-1 24-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
12. Irish War Cry G. Motion 15-1 7-1 26-1 26-1

13. J Boys Echo D. Romans 10-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
14. Malagacy T. Pletcher 30-1 53-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
15. McCraken I. Wilkes 6-1 6-1 9-1 12-1
16. Mo Town A. Dutrow 50-1 27-1 15-1 12-1
17. One Liner T. Pletcher 10-1 12-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
18. Practical Joke C. Brown 12-1 19-1 20-1 26-1

19. Reach the World B. Baffert 50-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
20. State of Honor M. Casse 50-1 198-1 175-1 6-5(f)
21. Tapwrit T. Pletcher 10-1 22-1 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
22. Thunder Snow S. bin Suroor 15-1 5-1(f) 5-2(f) 6-5(f)
23. Untrapped S. Asmussen 50-1 5-1(f) 105-1 6-5(f)
24. Mutuel field n/a 10-1 5-1 5-2 6-5

(f)-mutuel field entry

Is it odd that they didn't include Hence, who is locked into the Derby with his win at Sunland?
I realize it's not easy picking the 23 individual interests, but I would have included him over Untrapped, Reach the World, State of Honor and Mo Town.

Nothing is jumping out at me in any way on this board

The field could be a 10 horse entry off of board 4.
Anywhere near the 10-1 line might be worth it.

Link to "live" odds: ("live" in quotes because for the last 2 future pools, odds were updated erratically in the last hour of betting.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-4

RECAP: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...ol_4_Recap.pdf

I took the field @ 11-1,figuring all kind of weird things are happening this year.
A little madness this weekend helps the bet.
It would be kind of like having the P-4 going to multiple horses for $1200 off of a $100 ticket.
I'll probably settle on some oddball horse for my Derby selection/wager anyway.

I think it was a good bet. I didn't take it because I already have substantial All Others bets from Pools 2 and 3.

With 11-1, you only need an 8.5% chance to win. There are a lot of scenarios where you'd have more than an 8.5% chance to win. Six honest 40-1 shots would do it handily.