Derby Trail Forums - 10/7: Indiana Grand (11.99% Late P5)

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10/7: Indiana Grand (11.99% Late P5)

INDIANA GRAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: IN-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Challenging sequence starts with this tricky read where G1 placed Jalen Journey makes return to races..

Most Likely: #1 Boyfriend Material 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #2 Better Watch Out 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Jalen Journey 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Bybee 8-1 4th

6th: Merrillville-IN, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Krunch 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Piedi Bianchi 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Ever Wonder 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Unbridled Class 4-1 4th

7th: Florence Henderson-IN, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Timeless Rose 10-1 WON-DQ'd to 4th
Next Best: #7 The Beauty's Tale 6-1 WON-Up via DQ ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Wondrshegotthundr 8-1 2nd-Up via DQ
Super Add: #12 Wellington Wonder 12-1 5th

8th: Brickyard-IN, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

This gets very squirrely if it's not Double Tuff..

Most Likely: #4 Double Tuff 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #10 Flatter Hymm 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Music to My Ears 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Operation Stevie 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #3 You Go Boy 12-1 7th

9th: AJ Foyt-IN, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Strong Tide 2-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #10 Mr. Gary D 5-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Bizerk 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Classy Cowboy 4-1 12th

P5 Grid:

5: 1-2-6 (A), 7-8-10 (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-7 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (Using 4-5 in 5th): 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/2/7/2,4/9,13,14) Paid $421.65 (A-A-A-A-A)

P4 Grid:

6: 2-5 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-7 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), 7-10-11 (C)
9: 6-9-10 (A), 7-8-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (Using 7-10-11): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/7/2,4/9,13,14) Paid $96.25 (A-A-A-A)

Good luck!
Steve

What's the significance of not having a full 12% takeout? :confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1145999)

What's the significance of not having a full 12% takeout? :confused:

They were trying to be the 'industry low'.. which was cute until Canterbury launched the crazily low 10% P5 rake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1145999)

What's the significance of not having a full 12% takeout? :confused:

Why is gasoline priced as $2.09 9/10? Goes back many years to when gasoline was "25.9 cents per gallon" and stations competed for the penny difference.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1146001)

They were trying to be the 'industry low'.. which was cute until Canterbury launched the crazily low 10% P5 rake.

Without knowing how much "overflow" comes from having folks handicap those five races and invest in higher takeout pools as a result, hard to know whether such a takeout is crazy or not. For example, if this rake results in "double handle" in every subsequent exacta/double/P3 pools at 20%+ rake (an exaggeration to make the point), this might be a great business move.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1145995)

INDIANA GRAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: IN-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Challenging sequence starts with this tricky read where G1 placed Jalen Journey makes return to races..

Most Likely: #1 Boyfriend Material 7-2 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #2 Better Watch Out 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Jalen Journey 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Bybee 8-1 4th

6th: Merrillville-IN, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Krunch 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Piedi Bianchi 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Ever Wonder 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Unbridled Class 4-1 4th

7th: Florence Henderson-IN, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Timeless Rose 10-1 WON-DQ'd to 4th
Next Best: #7 The Beauty's Tale 6-1 WON-Up via DQ ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Wondrshegotthundr 8-1 2nd-Up via DQ
Super Add: #12 Wellington Wonder 12-1 5th

8th: Brickyard-IN, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

This gets very squirrely if it's not Double Tuff..

Most Likely: #4 Double Tuff 3-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #10 Flatter Hymm 7-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Music to My Ears 20-1 -
Exotics Use: #7 Operation Stevie 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #3 You Go Boy 12-1 -

9th: AJ Foyt-IN, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Strong Tide 2-1
Next Best: #10 Mr. Gary D 5-1
Best Value: #6 Bizerk 20-1
Exotics Use: #11 Classy Cowboy 4-1

P5 Grid:

5: 1-2-6 (A), 7-8-10 (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-7 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (Using 4-5 in 5th): 2x2x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

6: 2-5 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-5-7 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), 7-10-11 (C)
9: 6-9-10 (A), 7-8-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (Using 7-10-11): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

Good luck!
Steve

That's s a sweet piece of handicapping !!!

Great job today Steve.

Congrats and thanks as always!!:tro::$:

Great job Steve. That DQ in the 7th was embarrassing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch (Post 1146024)

Great job today Steve.

Congrats and thanks as always!!:tro::$:

Larry.. THX! That was fun.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1146026)

Great job Steve. That DQ in the 7th was embarrassing.

THX Hossy. Stews were out of control today. 3 DQ's??