8/19 (DMR): Pacific Classic, DMR Oaks (G1's), DMR Handicap (G2)
 

1 ROYAL ALBERT HALL-GB (Corey Nakatani) 30-1
2 COLLECTED (Martin Garcia) 5/2
3 ACCELERATE (Victor Espinoza) 3-1
4 SORRY ERIK (Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
5 HARD ACES (Santiago Gonzalez) 20-1
6 DONWORTH (Mario Gutierrez) 15-1
7 CURLIN ROAD (Flavien Prat) 20-1
8 ARROGATE (Mike Smith) 1-1

Has there ever been a horse with his talent, who really had no excuse, run as poorly as he did and then rebound?

Not without at least a brief layoff in between. However, was there really no excuse?

It's an interesting quandary for the connections. It's an easy and perhaps plausible excuse that the horse detested the surface. This is supported by the relatively poor performance of Baffert runners in subsequent weeks. Until Sunday, and the efforts of Soul Streit and Irish Freedom, I thought it was a certainty that Arrogate would opt for the Woodward. That's actually still on the table if Baffert is simply trying to clear the table for Collected. Or he's simply figured out how to adjust his training to the surface and his confidence is restored.

At the same time, the BC Classic will be run at Del Mar this year, so if the connections don't want to deal with lingering surface questions all through the fall, they'll probably run here to get to the bottom of it all.

I thought the same...I was told he was running here for sure about a week ago. I still find it hard to believe a truly great horse would have issues with surface, he never has anywhere else. My best guess is maybe he is getting studish?

This is a different track, maybe plays to the east coast better, maybe you need a race over it...have no clue but its def not SA or old Del Mar.

Its very interesting that both Arrogate and Collected are in this race. Collected has been training lights out and if can get the distance will be a handful to beat here.

I always felt like 10F was beyond his scope, and on this track its a real 10 furlongs this year. But he is training and talented, and you have that whole bet the longer priced Baffert horse thingy

Normally, when a horse of anywhere near Arrogates ability runs such an inexplicable race this close to the end of its career, it's just retired. Baffert didn't seem surprised or concerned even with the race. Instead of the usual talk about going over him with every diagnostic test available, he spoke like he had confidence that Arrogate would run back to form in a few weeks.

It was pretty odd.

I have pointed that out in other places, his comments before the race and after the race were at complete odds with other...nervous before, almost making excuses...to we will be fine in a few weeks.

It is pretty odd!

I think he is a mortal lock. Why not retire him? He's running because he is ready.

I dont buy that, no matter how he runs his value is cemented based on when he was right not when he was wrong. I think its a great unknown to everyone but there is actually very little to lose.

Yeah, he's a mortal lock too, though his morals are impeccable. In all seriousness, he should destroy that field.

Mortal. He crushes them.

I would point out Collected has never lost on a fast track i believe...and his TF figure is only a few points below Arrogate, he easily could be a very very good horse.

I dont think he wants 10f. Would have bet him going 9f at Saratoga.
Thats the only thing i think is a bit strange..... Collected has gotten very good, so his presence alone vs Arrogate makes me wonder.

I'm in no way denigrating Collected. Arrogate is simply in another level.

Its a fake report. (I fell for it too :o)

I deleted it but still think he will scratch.

Who did he scare away?

No one. Its silly.

Now Arrogate is serving the purpose (or similar) of a rabbit for Collected?

It will be interesting to see how he runs. The reports I have heard on him are not very positive. The most respected workout report on the Southern California circuit is National Turf. They always rave about Arrogate and give him A and B+ works. They gave his most recent work a B- and said he was late switching leads which they have never seen before from him.

Considering how valuable Arrogate is, you wouldn't think Baffert would run if he wasn't doing well. So we will see what happens. If the horse runs anything close to his best he will obviously win. But considering that he ran so poorly last time and considering that unbiased people who are very familiar with the horse say that he isn't training nearly as good as normal, I would put the chances of him running a top effort at less than 50%.

So that players can decide for themselves about Arrogate preparations and interpretations of them, Andy Harrington (top) & Toby Turrell (bottom) comments and link to XBTV's video.

ARROGATE 8/14/17


ARROGATE 8/8/17


ARROGATE 8/1/17

Thanks Steve!

Cant wait for Arrogate to crush this field. Excited.

I am alive in the pick three 10x to the 235

I heard some good things about the 5 in the 6th so was able to single.

Good luck bro. Seriously i cant believe how quick people are giving up on the best horse in the world, but i hope you catch the 5 if Arrogate isn't back.

5 looked strong in the baby race. I went 5 deep and didn't use Hunt.

I think the pick 4 can pay big even with Arrogate.

I think its official and safe to say he does not like Del Mar.

For a trainer who just won the Pacific Classic, Baffert doesn't look too excited

Collected is a good horse

yea, and the time was very quick and its going to get a big figure, but lets be honest, thats Arrogates C race.

Exactly.

He knows who the better horse is. It has to be frustrating.

I think he has to come to Belmont for the JCGC. He obviously dislikes this track.

Curlin as a 4-year-old.

Did he run 1 teen beyers? Because im pretty sure Arrogate just ran in the 110-115 range.

I'm not totally convinced that it is the track, particularly considering both Baffert and Smith's reaction.