Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Stakes Archive (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   8/19 (DMR): Pacific Classic, DMR Oaks (G1's), DMR Handicap (G2) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=62909)

Kasept 08-16-2017 07:19 AM

8/19 (DMR): Pacific Classic, DMR Oaks (G1's), DMR Handicap (G2)
 
1 ROYAL ALBERT HALL-GB (Corey Nakatani) 30-1
2 COLLECTED (Martin Garcia) 5/2
3 ACCELERATE (Victor Espinoza) 3-1
4 SORRY ERIK (Kent Desormeaux) 30-1
5 HARD ACES (Santiago Gonzalez) 20-1
6 DONWORTH (Mario Gutierrez) 15-1
7 CURLIN ROAD (Flavien Prat) 20-1
8 ARROGATE (Mike Smith) 1-1




10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 11:59 AM

Has there ever been a horse with his talent, who really had no excuse, run as poorly as he did and then rebound?

RolloTomasi 08-16-2017 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097632)
Has there ever been a horse with his talent, who really had no excuse, run as poorly as he did and then rebound?

Not without at least a brief layoff in between. However, was there really no excuse?

It's an interesting quandary for the connections. It's an easy and perhaps plausible excuse that the horse detested the surface. This is supported by the relatively poor performance of Baffert runners in subsequent weeks. Until Sunday, and the efforts of Soul Streit and Irish Freedom, I thought it was a certainty that Arrogate would opt for the Woodward. That's actually still on the table if Baffert is simply trying to clear the table for Collected. Or he's simply figured out how to adjust his training to the surface and his confidence is restored.

At the same time, the BC Classic will be run at Del Mar this year, so if the connections don't want to deal with lingering surface questions all through the fall, they'll probably run here to get to the bottom of it all.

10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1097633)
Not without at least a brief layoff in between. However, was there really no excuse?

It's an interesting quandary for the connections. It's an easy and perhaps plausible excuse that the horse detested the surface. This is supported by the relatively poor performance of Baffert runners in subsequent weeks. Until Sunday, and the efforts of Soul Streit and Irish Freedom, I thought it was a certainty that Arrogate would opt for the Woodward. That's actually still on the table if Baffert is simply trying to clear the table for Collected. Or he's simply figured out how to adjust his training to the surface and his confidence is restored.

At the same time, the BC Classic will be run at Del Mar this year, so if the connections don't want to deal with lingering surface questions all through the fall, they'll probably run here to get to the bottom of it all.

I thought the same...I was told he was running here for sure about a week ago. I still find it hard to believe a truly great horse would have issues with surface, he never has anywhere else. My best guess is maybe he is getting studish?

This is a different track, maybe plays to the east coast better, maybe you need a race over it...have no clue but its def not SA or old Del Mar.

knickslions2 08-16-2017 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1097633)
Not without at least a brief layoff in between. However, was there really no excuse?

It's an interesting quandary for the connections. It's an easy and perhaps plausible excuse that the horse detested the surface. This is supported by the relatively poor performance of Baffert runners in subsequent weeks. Until Sunday, and the efforts of Soul Streit and Irish Freedom, I thought it was a certainty that Arrogate would opt for the Woodward. That's actually still on the table if Baffert is simply trying to clear the table for Collected. Or he's simply figured out how to adjust his training to the surface and his confidence is restored.

At the same time, the BC Classic will be run at Del Mar this year, so if the connections don't want to deal with lingering surface questions all through the fall, they'll probably run here to get to the bottom of it all.

Its very interesting that both Arrogate and Collected are in this race. Collected has been training lights out and if can get the distance will be a handful to beat here.

10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1097645)
Its very interesting that both Arrogate and Collected are in this race. Collected has been training lights out and if can get the distance will be a handful to beat here.

I always felt like 10F was beyond his scope, and on this track its a real 10 furlongs this year. But he is training and talented, and you have that whole bet the longer priced Baffert horse thingy

Indian Charlie 08-16-2017 05:13 PM

Normally, when a horse of anywhere near Arrogates ability runs such an inexplicable race this close to the end of its career, it's just retired. Baffert didn't seem surprised or concerned even with the race. Instead of the usual talk about going over him with every diagnostic test available, he spoke like he had confidence that Arrogate would run back to form in a few weeks.

It was pretty odd.

10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1097659)
Normally, when a horse of anywhere near Arrogates ability runs such an inexplicable race this close to the end of its career, it's just retired. Baffert didn't seem surprised or concerned even with the race. Instead of the usual talk about going over him with every diagnostic test available, he spoke like he had confidence that Arrogate would run back to form in a few weeks.

It was pretty odd.

I have pointed that out in other places, his comments before the race and after the race were at complete odds with other...nervous before, almost making excuses...to we will be fine in a few weeks.

Indian Charlie 08-16-2017 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097661)
I have pointed that out in other places, his comments before the race and after the race were at complete odds with other...nervous before, almost making excuses...to we will be fine in a few weeks.

It is pretty odd!

RHT2004 08-16-2017 08:25 PM

I think he is a mortal lock. Why not retire him? He's running because he is ready.

10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097695)
I think he is a moral lock. Why not retire him? He's running because he is ready.

I dont buy that, no matter how he runs his value is cemented based on when he was right not when he was wrong. I think its a great unknown to everyone but there is actually very little to lose.

Indian Charlie 08-16-2017 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097695)
I think he is a moral lock. Why not retire him? He's running because he is ready.

Yeah, he's a mortal lock too, though his morals are impeccable. In all seriousness, he should destroy that field.

RHT2004 08-16-2017 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1097698)
Yeah, he's a mortal lock too, though his morals are impeccable. In all seriousness, he should destroy that field.

Mortal. He crushes them.

10 pnt move up 08-16-2017 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 1097698)
Yeah, he's a mortal lock too, though his morals are impeccable. In all seriousness, he should destroy that field.

I would point out Collected has never lost on a fast track i believe...and his TF figure is only a few points below Arrogate, he easily could be a very very good horse.

RHT2004 08-16-2017 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097701)
I would point out Collected has never lost on a fast track i believe...and his TF figure is only a few points below Arrogate, he easily could be a very very good horse.

I dont think he wants 10f. Would have bet him going 9f at Saratoga.
Thats the only thing i think is a bit strange..... Collected has gotten very good, so his presence alone vs Arrogate makes me wonder.

Indian Charlie 08-17-2017 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097701)
I would point out Collected has never lost on a fast track i believe...and his TF figure is only a few points below Arrogate, he easily could be a very very good horse.

I'm in no way denigrating Collected. Arrogate is simply in another level.

MaTH716 08-18-2017 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 1097795)
Arrogate scratched. Enter him to scare away horses from your stablemate. Racing is really crappy sometimes. You could see this for miles when collected was also entered.

Its a fake report. (I fell for it too :o)

3kings 08-18-2017 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1097796)
Its a fake report. (I fell for it too :o)

I deleted it but still think he will scratch.

10 pnt move up 08-18-2017 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 1097796)
Its a fake report. (I fell for it too :o)

Who did he scare away?

RHT2004 08-18-2017 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097826)
Who did he scare away?

No one. Its silly.

Indian Charlie 08-18-2017 11:53 PM

Now Arrogate is serving the purpose (or similar) of a rabbit for Collected?

Rupert Pupkin 08-19-2017 02:06 AM

It will be interesting to see how he runs. The reports I have heard on him are not very positive. The most respected workout report on the Southern California circuit is National Turf. They always rave about Arrogate and give him A and B+ works. They gave his most recent work a B- and said he was late switching leads which they have never seen before from him.

Considering how valuable Arrogate is, you wouldn't think Baffert would run if he wasn't doing well. So we will see what happens. If the horse runs anything close to his best he will obviously win. But considering that he ran so poorly last time and considering that unbiased people who are very familiar with the horse say that he isn't training nearly as good as normal, I would put the chances of him running a top effort at less than 50%.

Kasept 08-19-2017 05:54 AM

So that players can decide for themselves about Arrogate preparations and interpretations of them, Andy Harrington (top) & Toby Turrell (bottom) comments and link to XBTV's video.




Kasept 08-19-2017 05:58 AM

ARROGATE 8/14/17


ARROGATE 8/8/17


ARROGATE 8/1/17

Konk 08-19-2017 10:22 AM

Thanks Steve!

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:29 PM

Cant wait for Arrogate to crush this field. Excited.

10 pnt move up 08-19-2017 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097969)
Cant wait for Arrogate to crush this field. Excited.

I am alive in the pick three 10x to the 235

I heard some good things about the 5 in the 6th so was able to single.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097970)
I am alive in the pick three 10x to the 235

I heard some good things about the 5 in the 6th so was able to single.

Good luck bro. Seriously i cant believe how quick people are giving up on the best horse in the world, but i hope you catch the 5 if Arrogate isn't back.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097970)
I am alive in the pick three 10x to the 235

I heard some good things about the 5 in the 6th so was able to single.

5 looked strong in the baby race. I went 5 deep and didn't use Hunt.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097970)
I am alive in the pick three 10x to the 235

I heard some good things about the 5 in the 6th so was able to single.

I think the pick 4 can pay big even with Arrogate.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:52 PM

I think its official and safe to say he does not like Del Mar.

pointman 08-19-2017 08:55 PM

For a trainer who just won the Pacific Classic, Baffert doesn't look too excited

knickslions2 08-19-2017 08:55 PM

Collected is a good horse

10 pnt move up 08-19-2017 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1097981)
Collected is a good horse

yea, and the time was very quick and its going to get a big figure, but lets be honest, thats Arrogates C race.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097982)
yea, and the time was very quick and its going to get a big figure, but lets be honest, thats Arrogates C race.

Exactly.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman (Post 1097980)
For a trainer who just won the Pacific Classic, Baffert doesn't look too excited

He knows who the better horse is. It has to be frustrating.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 09:00 PM

I think he has to come to Belmont for the JCGC. He obviously dislikes this track.

cakes44 08-19-2017 09:03 PM

Curlin as a 4-year-old.

RHT2004 08-19-2017 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1097990)
Curlin as a 4-year-old.

Did he run 1 teen beyers? Because im pretty sure Arrogate just ran in the 110-115 range.

pointman 08-19-2017 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1097987)
I think he has to come to Belmont for the JCGC. He obviously dislikes this track.

I'm not totally convinced that it is the track, particularly considering both Baffert and Smith's reaction.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:33 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.