CONTEST: The 'Top 5' Thread -- Trifecta Box
 

As discussed today on ATR, with serious preparations complete, attention turns to individual decision-making regarding contenders and bet structures. As was the case last year when tabbing Paddy O'Prado, I had to declare a selection a week ago for the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide. I'm 'married' to Shackleford as my top choice for Saturday, and am very comfortable with building my plays around him.

Earlier today I worked to rank the 20 into groups of 5, and the group on top feel to me most likely to feature a winner and board hitters. Archarcharch (#2) and Toby's Corner (#3) were with Shackleford on my XpressBet Top 4, but here I have moved Dialed In to #4 replacing Pants On Fire. Animal Kingdom's Saturday work flagged him as an outstanding bottom wrung trifecta/superfecta candidate.

Please share your Top 5 candidates... We'll have a 5 horse exacta and trifecta box contest that I'll set up post-draw!

DERBY -- FINAL RANKINGS

1. Shackleford
2. Soldat
3. Dialed In
4. Midnight Interlude
5. Mucho Macho Man
--------------------------
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Archarcharch
8. Pants On Fire
9. Twinspired
10. Brilliant Speed
--------------------------
11. Nehro
12. Master of Hounds
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Uncle Mo
15. Santiva
--------------------------
16. Twice the Appeal
17. Watch Me Go
18. Comma to the Top
19. Decisive Moment
20. Derby Kitten

1. Uncle Mo
2. Archarcharch
3. Animal Kingdom
4. Dialed In
5. Master of Hounds

Archarcharch
Toby's Corner
Dialed In
Shackleford
Pants on Fire

Soldat
Stay Thirsty
Twinspired
Archarcharch
Decisive Moment

Right now, with a dry,fast track:

1) Dialed In
2) Shackleford
3)Animal Kingdom
4) Nehro
5) Arch Arch Arch

Here goes....

1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Toby's Corner Archarcharch
3. Twinspired
4. Animal Kingdom
5. Pants On Fire

1. Midnight Interlude
2. Dialed In
3. Uncle Mo
4. Stay Thirsty
5. Master of Hounds

Steve, What are your thoughts on Shackleford's work a couple days ago?

Long way to go still, but at this point I'm with Byk on the Shackleford bandwagon and am leaning toward making a Shackleford/Mo exacta box my largest wager on the race.

1. Shackleford
2. Uncle Mo
3. Archarcharch
4. Dialed In
5. Mucho Macho Man

Toby's Corner
Archarcharch
Uncle Mo
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

It was an impressive effort visually, though many note that any worker under Tammy will go quick. I hope it wasn't too fast in the way a fast work can trigger a horse over the top. There are some detractors nitpicking the work for a couple reasons including him leaning on the right reign slightly late (Gary Young), and breathing with a bit of a raspiness (Mig and Caton Brader). But when asked, Dale and Tammy both told me independantly Saturday night that neither contention was accurate.

He certainly seems to have come out of it well, and galloped strongy again this morning.

1: Soldat
2: Archarcharch
3: Dialed In
4: Santiva
5: Decisive Moment

1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Master of Hounds
4. Shackleford
5. Pants on Fire

(Edited to follow Steve's very clear rules....)

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Toby's Corner
5. Santiva

I need Archarcharch for a nice score in the futures. But, with seemingly everyone liking him, he's doomed.

Maybe I spoke too soon.

1. Archarcharch
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Soldat
4. Dialed In
5. Brilliant Speed

Paul

1. Archarcharch
2. Dialed In
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Nehro
5. Brilliant Speed

1) Uncle Mo
2) Shackleford
3) Dialed In
4) Toby's Corner
5) Aminal Kingdom

1. Toby's Corner
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Brilliant Speed
5. Twice The Appeal