Derby Trail Forums - 5/23: Churchill Downs (Foster Preview Day)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Take Charge Glenda 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Altaf 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #11 Bobby's Goldengirl 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Valletta 3-1 4th

5th: Cond ALW/OC, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 English Bee 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Parlor 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Spooky Channel 12-1 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Caribou Club 5-1 12th-Pulled up

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (Single 6, P3, DD)

Something seems off about this group and I freely admit I don't know what to expect. Three last out maiden-breakers, 3 seasonal debuts, 2 second/layoffs and HAW/FP invader Brittany Vanden Berg who brings fiance Chris Emigh with her to ride 20-1 Flatster (They have Slick Silver in the 2nd too)..

Best Value: #6 Hidden Ruler 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Get the Prize 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Smart Time 12-1 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #2 High Crime 7-2 9th

7th: Shawnee, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Nice to get Dunbar and Julie back to add even more spice to the Distaffing Division..

Most Likely: #8 She's a Julie 2-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Dunbar Road 4-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #2 Chocolate Kisses 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Vault 10-1 3rd

8th: Tepin, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

How about this? Sharing v. Alms with a host of hopeful foes including 2 for 2 Hendy Woods SCR'd and a pair of contenders from Kenneally (Abscond/Outburst). Should be terrific..

Most Likely: #9 Sharing 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #14 Alms 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Dominga 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Outburst 5-1 11th

P5 Grid:

4: 6-9 (A), 1-11 (B), 7 (C)
5: 5-12 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
6: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), 2-3-5 (C)
7: 4-8 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
8: 9-14 (A), 4 (B), 3-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/1/10/4/9) Paid $2,158.60 (A-C-A-A-A) ~ $108

P4 Grid:

5: 5-12 (A), 1-3 (B), 6-8 (C)
6: 4-6 (A), 2-10 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 4-8 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
8: 9-14 (A), 4 (B), 3-7-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/10/4/9) Paid $350.05

9th: Blame, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Big field of familiar elders and a bit of a dice roll. As mentioned with NTamm Friday, Alwaysmining has my interest at 20-1 as a forward-going type that has particularly appreciated the one turn mile format. Global Campaign the horse to beat 2nd off break for Stan Hough while luring Jose Ortiz..

Best Value: #4 Alwaysmining 20-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Global Campaign 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Owendale 3-1 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #10 Snapper Sinclair 15-1 5th

10th: Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Logic says to be against Maxfield in return, but long, uninterrupted worktab (and especially the sharp KEE gate move on 5/10) makes me think he's ready to fire off the bench. And when it comes to the multi wagers, what are you going to do if you don't lean on him? If you're worried about him being too far back for what looks like a mundane pace scenario, that gate move hints that he won't be left with as much to do here as he was in his 2 juvenile efforts. If looking elsewhere, Pneumatic is the 'now' horse while Shake Some Action (12-1) appears worth a glance after being eliminated early in his LA Derby try..

Most Likely: #10 Maxfield 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 Pnuematic 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Shake Some Action 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Major Fed 5-1 10th

11th: War Chant, 3yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Thoroughly nuts group to close out fun day with countless double digit prices to consider for tix including the 3 longest numbers. Entire field is separated by about 2 lengths on figs, exemplified by 50-1 Fenwick Station who comes in nearly as fast as 9-2 Hieronymous and 5-1 Smooth Like Strait..

Best Value: #11 Street Ready 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Field Pass 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 South Bend 12-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Pixelate 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #14 Fenwick Station 50-1 8th

P5 Grid:

7: 4-8 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 4-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 1-12 (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
C Backup: 2x3x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 4-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-8 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
10: 2-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 1-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve