Just watched Uncle Chuck up close schooling on a Twitter video (NYRA Feed) and OMG, he is huge. Didn't really put his size in perspective until I seen him up close.

CROSS COUNTRY P5

As good as Tiz the Law is, I have Uncle Chuck to bear him here and become the new Derby favorite.

:tro:

Uncle Chuck has 2 Graded Stakes wins (Robert B Lewis, San Filipe) in 2 starts.

TZL beat Ete Indien (Admittedly, TLZ didn't have the best of trips and Ete Indien did came back to win the Fountain of Youth next out - probably his best race) 6 months ago, and exactly what else has he beaten?

TZL is a very, very nice horse and can certainly prove me wrong today,
but I think anyone would have to question whether his record is a bit dressed up a bit + isn't going to be worth betting anywhere even close to the price he is going to go off at.

Horizontally, yes TLZ is a defensive include, but playing against vertically for the top spot.

Uncle chuck is going to have to improve quite a bit here on speed figures to beat Tiz the Law. No doubt he could but tiz is very good horse and think he is sitting on a huge number here. This race has no value to bet.

Their Timeform numbers are pretty close and that final 1/8 in Uncle Chuck’s last race gives plenty of reason to think he will like 10 furlongs. Not sure if he will win or not but I’m using both in my Pick 5. I don’t think I will even bet the race. If I do, I may throw like $5 down on Caracaro to win, which I think is unlikely but impressed by his race last time out.

If you're a sheet guy, South Bend, Caracaro, and Uncle Chuck all have big move up potential. Whether South Bend is able to move up to beat Tiz is debatable, but the other 2 definately can have something to say... those 3 with Tiz for me are only logical horses, unless Country Grammer get a sub 1:10 3/4 mile to run into which I don't see.
I see Uncle Chuck as the speed of the speed, the NYRA jock colony, in typical NYRA jock colony fashion will allow him a clear lead and walk to a half in 50 and that's all he's going to need. unless someone with no chance like Shiveree decides to try and cook him early.

I agree with you Tom that Tiz should win. But there are a lot of factors in here that are going to test him and at 2-5/3-5, no thanks. He is going to be horribly overbet.

Definitely over bet for sure. Hard to bet the race as I feel tiz is sitting on huge one. Though you never know at this track. I think Caracaro may show some early speed too. Way meet is going you need to be near front. Good luck today Dan

1st
Welcome back Rudeboyelvis. I hope you're doing much better.

2nd
Don't discount Baffert when he ships in. He talked about UC's stride and believes he'll like 1 1/4mi. Also, Mott saw SB train on dirt and thinks 1 1/4 might work. I don't think Country Grammar is good enough at this point to beat the top horses yet. Caracaro just looks like a much better horse when he stretched out and trainer is underated I believe.

putting a couple of dollars on Max Player...maybe Rosario can keep him closer to the pace and possibly make up some ground in the stretch...

Uncle Chuck has 1 stakes win, the Los Alamitos Derby...His only other start was his maiden win

I think Max Player, who ran a big race - by far his best - in the Belmont, will run well here...

Slight correction. He only has one stakes win and that was at Los Alamitos. He did not run in the Lewis or the San Felipe.

I liked his win at Los Al and watching Thousand Words, who looked completely overmatched against him, come back and win the Shared Belief with the fastest Beyer in a 3yo prep, while beating the SA Derby winner, that validated Uncle Chuck a little bit more.

Apologies - as I mentioned in my editing response I had about 6 different charts open and confused the two. King's response bolded is the direction I was going, admittedly poorly. Thanks for the correction - good luck today!

That Balrina was very impressive, pressure the whole way and for once kept on going, zero excuses for Bellafina here

I didn't use Bellafina in any of my wagers as she has never won outside Ca.

Gamine is obviously really good (drug test pending) but Rosario handed her the race.

WOW

who can beat that horse barring an injury....put away Uncle Chuck like he was Cousin Charlie

Lol

:tro:

Man, Uncle Chuck made me look foolish. First time for everything. I don't know how Tiz the Law gets beaten in Kentucky. I think the only possible thing to keep him from a TC would be for Gamine to run away in the Oaks and Baffert decide to run her in the Preakness. And as great as she is, Tiz would still be the horse to beat.

Until yesterday, I was feeling pretty good about the very hefty "All Others" bet I'd made in Pool 2 in early February. Not anymore. Now I have to hope that Art Collector takes it up another big notch today at Ellis Park.

Hate to root against Tiz the Law in the Derby, though. I really like the fact that the owners say they want to run him for a full 4-yr-old season.

I’ve read a lot of “who did he beat” talk about Tiz the Law and it’s pretty laughable. I’m not running to bet him at a short price in the Derby but if what he did yesterday doesn’t impress you, you’re a hater.

It’s not like he was hiding. They’ve been frank about where they are going for months. Not to mention the potential second choice in the Derby ran in an ungraded stake at Ellis today instead of the Travers.

I don’t know....who else is there left for him to beat besides Art Collector at this point?

Horses like Happy Saver and Shirl’s Speight are exciting prospects and I think Honor AP will be fully cranked for the Derby... but you have to give credit where it is due. That was a monster performance yesterday.

The glaring omission in his campaign was the Arkansas Derby, which usurped the traditional KY Derby date when CD shutdown.

The owner said point blank he did not want to "run against Baffert".

From a fan's perspective, that's proved disappointing, because Baffert has subsequently ruined all his 3yos this year (I don't expect Uncle Chuck, who looked horrendous down the stretch--as he did at Los Al, to make another start any time soon). Nadal and Charlatan were in top form at the time and perhaps the only other 3yos that could give Tiz The Law a run for his money.

You don't see Gamine as able to challenge him?

Not in a route race.

I don’t disagree although I can’t blame them for not wanting to run against Baffert at Oaklawn. It does seem like that extra time off he had in between Florida and the Belmont has him in very good form.

I think there’s a reason they went Test and not Alabama with her after her last.

There could be but my opinion is that it doesn't make sense to have Gamine run 10f then cut back to 9f and have one less week off between races. Maybe if the Derby was the goal for her, she could have gone in the Travers to get some points because she has none. As ambitious as I usually am, I think it was smarter to run in the Test against Venetian Harbor to prepare for the Oaks than it would have been to run in the Travers against Tiz the Law or go 10f in the Alabama. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gamine in the Preakness if she keeps it going in the Oaks.

In theory, they could have also run her in the Coaching Club (4 weeks after the Acorn and larger purse than the Test) or the Monmouth Oaks (5 weeks after the Acorn and smaller purse). I can see wanting to give her more time after the massive effort in the Acorn, though. Still, it's notable that all her official wins came around one turn and the race where she was DQed, her only race around two turns, she only won by a neck. I highly doubt she would make it 10 furlongs against the likes of Tiz the Law or Art Collector. I have my doubts she'll beat Speech or Swiss Skydiver at 9 furlongs.

That may be true. If she wins the Oaks and wraps up the 3yo filly title, the Preakness would be a good opportunity to find out. I too had my doubts after the Oaklawn race because I had a hard time believing that Speech, Venetian Harbor, Gamine, and Swiss Skydiver all ran that fast. But they are showing that they were all legit that day.

You have also always been obsessed with females facing males. Why wouldn’t they try to prove she’s better than Monomoy Girl, Midnight Bisou or even Fighting Mad at 9 furlongs after the Oaks, provided she wins?

If she were to win the Oaks and then try the Preakness, I don't see how a loss there would preclude here from going in the Distaff after that.

Also, I don't look at it as being obsessed with females facing males as much as I want to see the best horses face each other, regardless of sex. That doesn't mean that I don't understand that in this country, the females have enough money in their races to justify keeping them apart (there's not nearly as big a disparity as in Europe which gives more reason for females to run against males). I also understand what the black type means for their breeding careers. So I do get it. I just like to see the best take on the best. When they happen to be female, so be it. When they do it and are successful, their statuses in history go up. We'll always remember Rachel in the Preakness and Winning Colors in the Derby. Rags to Riches in the Belmont and Zenyatta in the Classic. Just to name a few.

With basketball and baseball back, horse racing isn't the only game in town anymore but when you looked at the ratings from April-July, our ratings went up tremendously. We gained tons of new fans and I'm sure many of them tuned in to watch the Travers over the weekend. If they watched the whole broadcast, they saw Gamine and Tiz the Law both put in great performances and even though to the hardcore fan/gambler, Tiz vs Art Collector might be the better matchup, to the more casual observer, Tiz vs Gamine is more exciting. I'd love to have all three in the same race together. Gamine may be a 1-turn monster and just good at 2-turns. Or she may be what the numbers show, just faster than the others. I'd like to see.

I’ll be honest, my first reaction when I saw the Travers was “wow, who is beating him”...that was incredible.

That WOW aside, and granting that it will take a big performance to beat him, my heart is still with Honor A.P....and so is my brain. I’ve been a huge fan of his since his debut, and up until the Shared Belief, he’d done nothing wrong. I thought he would win that race even at 85%, but what I feared would happen based on his works happened ..Shirreffs undertrained him and he was dull. He wasn’t as eager to run on in his works as he usually was, and I think it’s because he hadn’t been asked for any speed at all. I’ve seen him train, he’s always fighting to go faster. Anyway, he was undertrained and then got banged at the start. I actually think the figures don’t tell the story - I don’t think he ran that well despite the race coming up fast. I do think it’s encouraging that he didn’t give up....hey, you take the positive where you can find it.

I think HAP will thrive at 1 1/4. I do understand anyone thinking Tiz is unbeatable, but I don’t get why all of a sudden Honor A.P. is yesterday’s news while Art Collector is all the rage. I love AC, this has nothing against him....I just personally think Honor A.P. is better than him, and it’s not that close.

Honor A.P. lost the Shared Belief because he was ridden poorly. Mike Smith outsmarted himself again, taking Honor A.P. out of his comfort zone and running style by making an ill-advised 5-wide sweep of the field on the first turn despite settling nicely the opening furlong. I presume he did this because he thought the pace scenario was against him. If so, kudos for recognizing that, but hey, why would you let the horse dawdle the opening furlong if you mean to prompt the pace?

And all that ignores the fact that not too many horses are able to alter their running style (and still be effective) at the whim of the rider, especially if we are talking about a scion of the plodding A.P. Indy line.

In his earlier races, Honor A.P. settled mid-pack and then launched a bid at the 3/16ths pole. This ability to accelerate on the turn is what separates him from most of A.P. Indy descendants and puts him near the top of his 3yo class. Unfortunately, Smith blunted all that by moving early AND wide, getting caught up in a battle of position w/ Cezanne down the backstretch so that Honor A.P. never settled, then trying to launch another wide sweep earlier on the far turn (3/8s pole) from where the colt normally makes his move.

To add insult to injury, Smith had the audacity to suggest that Shirreffs trained the horse poorly for the race and that if the COVID pandemic hadn't transpired he could have personally trained the colt in his workouts.

Hopefully the horse didn't bust a gut continuing with courage through the stretch despite basically being asked to make a sustained 6-furlong move.

Maybe A.P. Indy's rider Eddie D. can come out of retirement and show Smith how it is done.

Art Collector has been on a massive tear since returning at 3, has more early speed than Honor A.P., has shown versatility in running style, and has won routing and sprinting.

From a form standpoint, Honor A.P. beat Rushie by 4 at SA, while Art Collector beat the same horse by 8 at Keeneland. Honor A.P. beat Anneau d'Or by 5 at SA, while Art Collector beat the same horse by 14 at Ellis.

Rollo do you give any credence to the theory that Honor AP just wasn’t fully cranked for the Shared Belief? And Shirreffs knows how to get a horse ready for the ultimate goal and will have him 100% (or as close as he can be) come Derby Day?

he was just a few works short the sheriff needs 37 works in between races

Who knows? Before the race, Shirreffs claimed that the horse was training up to the Shared Belief the same or better than for the SA Derby.

After the race he apparently drank the Mike Smith Kool-Aid and made some nebulous comments that horses know the difference between an exercise rider and a jockey in the morning. Not sure I buy into that, but certainly jockeys tend to work horses faster than the regular exercise riders (usually to the detriment of the horse) probably because they are interested in knowing how "good" a horse is as opposed to trying to help achieve a trainer's conditioning goals.

As far as Shirreffs knowing how to get a horse ready for the big event, not sure I buy that either. He won the Derby with Giacomo on his own admission because Smith told him to press on with the colt despite a losing streak. What else has he won where his horse clearly progressed perfectly to a big race? This year Midcourt was over the top come Big Cap day, Hard Not To Love has tailed off completely since stepping up in trip, and his other 2 SA Derby winners (Tiago, Gormley) were also-rans in the classics.

At any rate, even if he was trying to "give a race" to Honor A.P.--which would have been the wise move considering he was already in the KY Derby on points and the 4-horse field and pace scenario went against the colt's running style--Smith completely ruined it by trying to turn the race on its ear after the opening furlong.

I'd be more worried about Honor A.P. taking a step backwards than believing he will improve off the effort. The horse basically showed that without his well-timed, patented turn move, he is nothing more than a common grinder. The conditions of the Derby (large field, strong pace, extra furlong) will help him, but I don't think his connections do him any favors.

I can’t argue with much of that, but I think he’s a very good trainer. They made a mistake thinking Hard Not to Love wants a route and Midcourt bounced back pretty well a few weeks ago.

Honor AP just seemed short to me and obviously the ride did him no favors. Betting wise, the effort in the Shared Belief should provide a much better price come Derby Day than if he romped. Although if the Tiz the Law that ran Saturday shows up with the same effort Derby Day they are all running for 2nd.