3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4
Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds 1. Albano, 50-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 3. Bobby’s Kitten, 30-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1 4. Cairo Prince, 6-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1 5. California Chrome, 5-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f) 6. Candy Boy, 12-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f) 7. Chitu, 10-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 8. Constitution, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 9. General a Rod, 30-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 10. Hoppertunity, 12-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1 12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f) 13. Midnight Hawk, 20-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f) 14. Ride On Curlin, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1 15. Ring Weekend, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 16. Samraat, 15-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f) 17. Social Inclusion, 20-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 18. Strong Mandate, 20-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1 19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f) 20. Uncle Sigh, 30-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f) 21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 50-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f) 22. We Miss Artie, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f) 24. Field (all others), 8-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5 (f) – denotes field entry |
Anything even resembling a decent price in there?
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There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value. Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting. |
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If you think Intense Holiday takes care of biz in the LA Derby, he won't be 20-1 in the KY Derby. Even if the future closes on him at 15-1, I think you get more value than you would betting him on Derby Day.
Also, Ring Weekend isn't that much of a fuke. 50-1? That's too good to at least not make a flyer on. 30-1 would even be ok for that |
I like Intense Holiday as well but hard to root for connections for me at least
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I still think Uncle Sigh could be value. If he wins the Wood he will be 15 or 20-1 and he will likely be over 50-1 when this pool closes. I have him at 73 and 42 though, so Ill sit chilly.
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If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.
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While I hope I am proved wrong, this crop as a whole does nothing to excite me.
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He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.” If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field. |
Constitution didn't make his debut until Jan 11th.
I would need way more than 30-1 in the Derby future to buck a 130+ yr old trend |
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I think General a Rod could be value if he stays at or floats up from 30-1. If Cairo Prince flops in the Fl Derby and this horse runs another good one, he could be a legit contender on Derby Day.
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