2/8-10 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 1)
 

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER 2013 Pool 1

Morning Line odds by Mike Battaglia

1. Capo Bastone - 30-1
2. Code West - 50-1
3. Delhomme - 30-1
4. Den’s Legacy - 30-1
5. Dynamic Sky - 30-1
6. Falling Sky - 30-1

7. Flashback -15-1
8. Frac Daddy - 50-1
9. Goldencents - 20-1
10. He’s Had Enough - 50-1
11. Itsmyluckyday - 15-1
12. Mylute - 30-1

13. Normandy Invasion - 20-1
14. Overanalyze - 15-1
15. Oxbow - 20-1
16. Revolutionary - 20-1
17. Shanghai Bobby - 12-1
18. Super Ninety Nine - 20-1

19. Uncaptured - 20-1
20. Verrazano - 15-1
21. Violence - 12-1
22. Vyjack (g) - 20-1
23. Will Take Charge - 30-1
24. All Others - 9-5

(g) - gelding

where are Fire and Rain, and Little Distorted ?

#24.

These are Derby futures, not April N1X races at Keeneland.

Why do you care about these horses? Shouldn't you be excited on the 20-1 you are getting on Revolutionary.

Good Luck!

any suggestions for exactas for pool1

I Will Be Surprised If Flashback Is 15-1.....

Any chance all 23 don't even make the Derby?;) All of these horses have to either finish 1 or 2 in a big race to even qualify,what happens if we get 4 of these pool horses in the FL Derby or Arkansas Derby? It gonna leave 2 in each race with 40 points or less total

I know it makes alot more sense but the new points thing has taken me out of these early races since have no clue if they will even make it

Steve,
I bet you like the 99-1 that Den's Legacy is holding steady at!!

FINAL POOL ODDS (Opening/Final)

Capo Bastone 30/1 50
Code West 50/1 50
Delhomme 30/1 50
Den's Legacy 30/1 70
Dynamic Sky 30/1 50
Falling Sky 30/1 99

Flashback 15/1 12
Frac Daddy 50/1 60
Goldencents 20/1 20
He's Had Enough 50/1 50
Itsmyluckyday 15/1 13
Mylute 30/1 99

Normandy Invasion 20/1 15
Overanalyze 15/1 30
Oxbow 20/1 25
Revolutionary 20/1 13
Shanghai Bobby 12/1 14
Super Ninety Nine 20/1 45

Uncaptured 20/1 40
Verrazano 15/1 11
Violence 12/1 13
Vyjack 20/1 45
Will Take Charge 30/1 60
All Other Three Year Olds 9/5 8/5

Yes! I took a little.. Plus Code West, My Lute and Will Take Charge..

I put $40 into this thing. 20$ on Super Ninety Nine and Code West.

These will-pays should be pretty close:

Horse Will Pay
Capo Bastone $118.00
Code West $114.00
Delhomme $113.20
Den's Legacy $156.60
Dynamic Sky $110.00
Falling Sky $230.80
Flashback $26.40
Frac Daddy $139.00
Goldencents $43.40
He's Had Enough $102.60
Itsmyluckyday $28.80
Mylute $249.20
Normandy Invasion $33.00
Overanalyze $69.20
Oxbow $54.80
Revolutionary $29.00
Shanghai Bobby $31.40
Super Ninety Nine $97.20
Uncaptured $82.40
Verrazano $24.00
Violence $28.60
Vyjack $100.60
Will Take Charge $124.20
All Other 3 yr olds $5.20

--Dunbar

I don't know, after Little Distorted's awesome race on Saturday, I think he is right on target for the KY Derby.

Revolutionary did that to him in his first start. He looked a little gimpy after that maiden win. On Saturday, When he opened double digits, it was pretty clear he was gonzo. The way they bet him in his debut into the teeth of Revolutionary, they already know he's gone. I'm surprised they even ran. This is what happens when you run too fast too soon.

Are you completely disregarding the trainer change from his debut to his 2nd start?

Mareina is an excellent trainer and Darrin Miller would have a hard time winning a dirt race with Cigar in his barn. Mareina had Little Distorted ready to roll first time out so that he could be sold afterwards. He got what he (and likely the owner) wanted.

The horse that is most interesting to me so far is Orb. I really liked his last race and think he'll continue to get better. The major negative to him is that he is gonna have to run lights out to gain the points to get in.

I completely agree with you on the trainer switch being a huge negative ... but something physical is likely wrong with Little Distorted.

He has run back to back performances that have been insanely dismal. Doubtful he is sound of wind and limb. Those were two pretty hardcore non-efforts.

Shug said today that although he'd prefer an ALW start next, he'll likely send him in the Fountain of Youth (2/23).

point well taken

They can't find a spot for him. Shug would run vs elders in a 2x but he cant find one. Likely see him this Saturday at Gulfstream.

Do tell where you heard or read he would take on elders at this stage. I would be surprised if he wasnt in the FOY as Steve said

I'm wondering what track is even running a race for 3 and up in February. Probably the same one that accepts bets made with Monopoly money.

Believe it or not, Oaklawn Park does it.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20130207&RN=4

It's very rare though and probably doesn't exist at the 2x level.

Hawthorne too, and only a 6lb weight break. Not that Hawthorne is pertinent to this conversation.

Yeah that was my point. Orb isn't running in an Arkansas bred MSW and as you alluded to Scav, it's not like Shug is shipping to Hawthorne to run in an allowance race.

Zito got a N2X for Dialed In to go in early March against older horses 2 years ago. I don't know if that is a possibility this time around for Imperial Council, I mean Orb.

I don't see why the poor horse can't run in the Fountain of Youth.

Isn't this one of the things that is wrong with how today's horses are campaigned? Althought I guess thinking a n2x will go is a little ridiculous anyways.

It's ridiculous of Shug to want a N2X right now if he has any Derby aspirations with the horse. If he doesn't, then leave him off until late March and try to get one to go then.

there are many things wrong with how horses are campaigned. i know some don't like 'back in the day' stories...but it used to be horses could steadily progress thru distances and conditions. but now, with horses racing occasions between works, instead of the other way around, everything has changed with how races are chosen. and with earnings and then points, everyone wants to do just enough to get in-but 'back in the day' people didn't delude themselves into thinking they had a legitimate derby horse. they had to find ways to pare the numbers because people started throwing garbage at the wall-now they think top 20 is something to aim for, to get in the gate. it's awful.

That 20$ on SNN feels better spent right now.