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-   -   3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=69305)

Kasept 03-24-2021 07:51 AM

3/26-28 (CD): Derby Future Wager ~ Pool 5
 
1. Big Lake SCRATCH
2. Caddo River 30-1
3. Collaborate 30-1
4. Concert Tour 9-2
5. Crowded Trade 30-1
6. Dream Shake 50-1

7. Essential Quality 3-1
8. Greatest Honour 4-1
9. Helium 30-1
10. Hidden Stash 50-1
11. Highly Motivated 30-1
12. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1

13. Hozier 30-1
14. Mandaloun 30-1
15. Medina Spirit 20-1
16. Midnight Bourbon 30-1
17. O Besos 50-1
18. Prevalence 20-1

19. Proxy 30-1
20. Risk Taking 30-1
21. Rock Your World 50-1
22. Spielberg 50-1
23. Weyburn 30-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds 20-1

moses 03-24-2021 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1150610)
1. Big Lake SCRATCH
2. Caddo River 30-1
3. Collaborate 30-1
4. Concert Tour 9-2
5. Crowded Trade 30-1
6. Dream Shake 50-1

7. Essential Quality 3-1
8. Greatest Honour 4-1
9. Helium 30-1
10. Hidden Stash 50-1
11. Highly Motivated 30-1
12. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1

13. Hozier 30-1
14. Mandaloun 30-1
15. Medina Spirit 20-1
16. Midnight Bourbon 30-1
17. O Besos 50-1
18. Prevalence 20-1

19. Proxy 30-1
20. Risk Taking 30-1
21. Rock Your World 50-1
22. Spielberg 50-1
23. Weyburn 30-1
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds 20-1

Probably sitting this one out but Iíll look at the prices.

With Big Lake being scratched out and the pool not started yet, how come they canít just add another horse? Iím sure the horse would have little chance but I bet horses like Known Agenda, Triple Tap, Soup and Sandwich, and others would garner some interest.

FATPIANO 03-24-2021 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1150611)
Probably sitting this one out but Iíll look at the prices.

With Big Lake being scratched out and the pool not started yet, how come they canít just add another horse? Iím sure the horse would have little chance but I bet horses like Known Agenda, Triple Tap, Soup and Sandwich, and others would garner some interest.

then bet all others....

Dahoss 03-24-2021 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1150622)
then bet all others....

Why bet anything at all?

Not trying to be rude but how are these good bets at all?

moses 03-24-2021 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO (Post 1150622)
then bet all others....

I donít plan on betting any of those horses. Just curious why they canít add another betting option when one is eliminated before the pool even opens.

Dunbar 03-25-2021 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150623)
Why bet anything at all?

Not trying to be rude but how are these good bets at all?

The flip side is why assume there are not any good bets in there? It's parimutual and the takeout is the same as any race at Churchill. Some entries will be overbet and some will be underbet. If they're underbet enough, they're good bets.

Dahoss 03-25-2021 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1150638)
The flip side is why assume there are not any good bets in there? It's parimutual and the takeout is the same as any race at Churchill. Some entries will be overbet and some will be underbet. If they're underbet enough, they're good bets.

I donít see how betting a race that is 6 weeks away where there are so many variables could possibly be considered a good bet.

Iím sure all those people who bet Life Is Good thought they made a good bet.

So much can change in this game, with 3 year olds, daily. Why make it more difficult on yourself and your bankroll?

I just think itís very difficult if not impossible to determine value this far out. Too much can happen.

Conrad 03-25-2021 08:54 AM

I got lucky (or unlucky, as it was) when i bet Giacomo in the 2005 future pool at 25-1.
I had soured on him by the time the Derby came around and passed on him at 50-1.

The End

Dahoss 03-25-2021 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1150640)
I got lucky (or unlucky, as it was) when i bet Giacomo in the 2005 future pool at 25-1.
I had soured on him by the time the Derby came around and passed on him at 50-1.

The End

I did almost the same except I bet him Derby Day too.

Soured me on the future pools.

moses 03-25-2021 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Conrad (Post 1150640)
I got lucky (or unlucky, as it was) when i bet Giacomo in the 2005 future pool at 25-1.
I had soured on him by the time the Derby came around and passed on him at 50-1.

The End

I did that with Country House. Around 30/1 in the futures pool but he went off much higher than that.

moses 03-25-2021 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150643)
I did almost the same except I bet him Derby Day too.

Soured me on the future pools.

The futures wagers are bad bets...but I still make them because they can be fun.

In the past, I've picked different horses for each pool. This year, I just kept betting Concert Tour so I've got some money to win on him and then a bunch of small ($1 or $2) exactas with different horses in each pool and a few doubles with him. I've got a $1 exacta of Concert Tour over Hot Rod Charlie that will pay $1030. And while that's still probably not going to happen, it's kind of fun to have that possibility.

Dahoss 03-25-2021 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses (Post 1150645)
The futures wagers are bad bets...but I still make them because they can be fun.

In the past, I've picked different horses for each pool. This year, I just kept betting Concert Tour so I've got some money to win on him and then a bunch of small ($1 or $2) exactas with different horses in each pool and a few doubles with him. I've got a $1 exacta of Concert Tour over Hot Rod Charlie that will pay $1030. And while that's still probably not going to happen, it's kind of fun to have that possibility.

I hear ya. If youíre looking at it as a fun bet, it is.

moses 03-25-2021 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150646)
I hear ya. If youíre looking at it as a fun bet, it is.

Yeah. I mean, winning money is generally more fun than losing money. But I don't wager a ton of money on these future bets and consider them a little more like lottery tickets than typical horse bets.

Dunbar 03-25-2021 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150639)
I donít see how betting a race that is 6 weeks away where there are so many variables could possibly be considered a good bet.

Just like any other horse bet, there is information to analyze. The time until the race is another variable. Often, adding a new variable is a good thing in betting, especially if you think you have a better handle on it than the majority of bettors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
Iím sure all those people who bet Life Is Good thought they made a good bet.

Doesnít everyone who makes any horse bet think they've made a good bet? I think you'd agree that 99%+ of them are wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
So much can change in this game, with 3 year olds, daily. Why make it more difficult on yourself and your bankroll?

Why make any horse racing bet? With its house edge/takeout of 15-25% it would appear way more difficult than, say, NFL betting, where the house edge is less than 5%. But sometimes the difficulty presents opportunities for the betting public to make big mistakes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
I just think itís very difficult if not impossible to determine value this far out. Too much can happen.

Itís another variable. It's not impossible to analyze.

Dahoss 03-25-2021 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1150651)
Just like any other horse bet, there is information to analyze. The time until the race is another variable. Often, adding a new variable is a good thing in betting, especially if you think you have a better handle on it than the majority of bettors.



Doesnít everyone who makes any horse bet think they've made a good bet? I think you'd agree that 99%+ of them are wrong.



Why make any horse racing bet? With its house edge/takeout of 15-25% it would appear way more difficult than, say, NFL betting, where the house edge is less than 5%. But sometimes the difficulty presents opportunities for the betting public to make big mistakes.



Itís another variable. It's not impossible to analyze.

Yawn. Why not tell us who you think is a good value bet at this point and we will come back to the thread and see if you were right.

If you canít see why these are bad value bets, nothing anyone says will change your mind. Comparing future bets to non future bets is intellectually dishonest and you know that.

Dunbar 03-26-2021 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150656)
Yawn. Why not tell us who you think is a good value bet at this point and we will come back to the thread and see if you were right.

Please explain how you will evaluate whether I was "right". Does my bet have to win to be right? If so, we have a very different definition of 'good bet'.

How about if my horse goes off at lower odds in the Derby than my odds in the Future Wager, does that make me right? If so, how will you evaluate a bet on All Others? (I can help you with that one if you're stumped.)


Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
If you canít see why these are bad value bets, nothing anyone says will change your mind.

It's true that someone saying 'it's hard' or 'there's no value' will not get me to change my mind.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
Comparing future bets to non future bets is intellectually dishonest and you know that.

Calling someone "intellectually dishonest" because they disagree with you is pretty silly.

Just because you cannot see an edge in a game or a certain kind of bet, it does not mean that someone else cannot.

Dahoss 03-26-2021 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1150694)
Please explain how you will evaluate whether I was "right". Does my bet have to win to be right? If so, we have a very different definition of 'good bet'.

How about if my horse goes off at lower odds in the Derby than my odds in the Future Wager, does that make me right? If so, how will you evaluate a bet on All Others? (I can help you with that one if you're stumped.)




It's true that someone saying 'it's hard' or 'there's no value' will not get me to change my mind.



Calling someone "intellectually dishonest" because they disagree with you is pretty silly.

Just because you cannot see an edge in a game or a certain kind of bet, it does not mean that someone else cannot.

LOL

How much is your ticket worth if you bet a horse in the future pool at 30-1, he goes off 5-1 in the Derby and runs 16th?

Right means making money. Thatís what this is all about. If you feel like youíve found an edge and can spot underlays in future pools....more power to you. But at the end of the day, if youíre not actually making money who gives a sh.it?

Plus...saying you have an edge and actually having one are two different things. For all of your posts on the matter I canít recall many (if any) actual opinions on horses. So how would anyone know if you have an edge? Where is the proof?

Finally, I didnít call you intellectually dishonest...yet. I said your analogy was. If youíre still stumped on what the difference between the two is I can help you out.

Dunbar 03-27-2021 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1150696)
How much is your ticket worth if you bet a horse in the future pool at 30-1, he goes off 5-1 in the Derby and runs 16th?

Right means making money. Thatís what this is all about.

Okay, so by your definition, a bet is ďrightĒ only if it makes money. The reality is that winning or losing the bet has very little to do with whether you had an edge at the time you made the bet. You can lose 28 out of 30 times with your 30-1 shots and have a humongous edge.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
If you feel like youíve found an edge and can spot underlays in future pools....more power to you. But at the end of the day, if youíre not actually making money who gives a sh.it?

Finally, thereís something I can agree with you on, as long as youíre using ďend of the dayĒ to mean Ďin the long runí.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
Plus...saying you have an edge and actually having one are two different things.

Two things in a row that make sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
For all of your posts on the matter I canít recall many (if any) actual opinions on horses. So how would anyone know if you have an edge? Where is the proof?

Your definition of Ďproofí, I presume, is a longterm winning record? I could show you a log of my bets in the Derby Future Wager ever since I started betting it in 2008. Those bets have shown a solid profit. Showing those bets here is a lose/lose proposition for me. Either (1) Iíd fail to convince you, or (2) I WOULD convince you (and possibly others here), and my edge next year would be smaller, thanks to the parimutual aspect.

Iíve filed a Sch C as a professional gambler for at least the past 27 years, showing a profit every year. Am I going to show those to you? No. Would it convince you if I did? Probably not. You might point out that the profits didnít all come from horseracing. Youíd be right. In fact, just 5-10% comes from horseracing bets. What those 27 Sch Cís do show is that I understand how to recognize and capitalize on an edge.

Hereís one more bit of evidence that I know how to recognize an edge (and Iíll agree itís hardly ďproofĒ). You can check out these two links. The Forbeís article is good for background; the 2nd link mentions me specifically.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...h=32592578307f

https://www.blackjackreview.com/wp/2...ack-ball-2020/

Despite the 'Blackjack Ball' name, the 110 or so invitees come from multiple types of gambling. Bill Benter was there for at least the past two years. Itís an elite group, and Iím proud to have been invited the past 3 years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss
Finally, I didnít call you intellectually dishonest...yet. I said your analogy was. If youíre still stumped on what the difference between the two is I can help you out.

So my using an intellectually dishonest analogy doesnít make me intellectually dishonest? Good to know!

Something tells me you will want to get in the last wordÖ

Dahoss 03-27-2021 04:28 PM

Dunbar, we can agree to disagree. Next time just say you don’t like me and save yourself the time from having to write an essay. The line of internet douchebags who don’t like me forms to the left and is very long. Take a number.

You have an edge betting Derby futures but can’t and won’t prove it. I’m very impressed. I have to say, saying if you showed me proof that you’ve made money in the past it would ruin your edge for the future is right on brand and very intellectually dishonest. Have fun with that one.

Consider this my last word on the topic. Something tells me you’ll need the last word. Have at it

Dahoss 03-27-2021 04:34 PM

By the way, you seem like a real blast at parties Dunbar. Oops...maybe that was my last word.


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