Weekend Stakes Beyer: Mendelssohn 106; Audible 99
GP Florida Derby (G1): Audible 99 (Into Mischief) T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez
GP Hardacre Mile S (G2): Conquest Big E 100 (Tapit) D. Hurtak /J. Batista GP Honey Fox S (G3) : Lull 95 (War Front) C. Clement /J. Ortiz GP Gulfstream Oaks (G2): Coach Rocks 80 (Oxbow) D. Romans /L. Saez GP Pan American S (G2): Hi (Happy-ARG) 105 (Pure Prize) T. Pletcher /L. Saez GP Cutler Bay S: Therapist 91 (Freud) C. Clement /I. Ortiz GP Sanibel Island S: Figarella's Queen 84 (Medaglia d'Oro) G. Delgado /L. Saez GP Opt CLM (7f): Outplay 98 (Bernardini) T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez MEY World Cup: Thunder Snow 111 (Helmet) S. bin Suroor/C. Soumillon MEY UAE Derby: Mendelssohn 106 (Scat Daddy) A. O'Brien/R. Moore MEY Golden Shaheen: Mind Your Biscuits 107* (Posse) C. Summers/J. Rosario GG San Francisco Mile S (G3): Flamboyant (FR) -- (Peer Gynt-JPN) P. Gallagher /J. Couton OP Rainbow Miss S : Georgia's Reward -- (Warrior's Reward) R. Moquett /D. Cohen SA Santana Mile S: Dr. Dorr -- (Lookin At Lucky) B. Baffert/ J. Talamo FG Star Guitar S: Mobile Bay -- (Lone Star Special) V. Arceneaux / D. Saenz |
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Not feeling all that great now! |
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I'm going to be wrong when the first UAE Derby or any other foreign horse wins the KD, and I'll live with it. I love that Mendelssohn ran huge.
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I think Meydan had a rail bias....not a speed bias. Not that Mendlessohn wasn't helped immeasurably by the track, but it was the rail and not speed that was carrying horses. I think this has led to a misinterpretation of the Sprint.
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Listen to Andy from ATR Hour 1 for his explanation on how Mendelssohn 106 was derived. |
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-bt- |
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The overarching goal for Coolmore is not to win the Kentucky Derby, but rather to produce stallions. A track record performance at the Group 1 level with an 18 1/2 length winning margin? Regardless of how he performs at Churchill (if he performs at all), Mendelssohn has gotten his "stallion making" race. |
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Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead. Quote:
Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on. |
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I realize that the Kentucky Derby is more important than any other race Mendelssohn can win on the main track, but again, I don't think the Coolmore people hold their breath waiting to win that sort of race in North America. Coolmore often simply tosses horses in their main US targets (on the dirt, that is), the BC Juvenile, BC Classic, and Kentucky Derby hoping for some blind luck. Mendelssohn was close to starting in the Juvenile on the dirt but O'Brien didn't want to throw another curve ball at the colt who was starting to progress off a runner-up effort in the Dewhurst at odds of 50-1. Instead, he tossed in Group 1 winner US Navy Flag, and completed that one's massive burnout (he made 11 starts last year at 2--I have no idea if he is supposed to return). In addition, O'Brien has had great success in the BC Juvenile Turf with 2nd tier juveniles. In fact, Mendelssohn was his 4th winner of that race and the first to ever win another race subsequently. What is interesting to note is that it is highly likely that the race strategy for Coolmore dirt attemps from now on will be an all-out send from the gate. US Navy Flag was sent in the Juvenile as was Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby. Churchill made an attempt in the BC Classic but was pinballed off of West Coast and Mubtaahij under the wire the first time 'round. |
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At this point, before the next round of preps, I would gladly take Mendelssohn head-to-head in the Derby vs Good Magic or Audible or any prospect other than Bolt, Justify, or Magnum Moon. (That assumes McKinzie is no longer a Derby prospect--he's absent from the listed horses in Pool 4 of the Future Wager.)
Mendelssohn has already run further than any horse in the Derby field will have run, he's shown he can travel and win in the US, and the 106 BSF suggests he's competitive with the best of this class. |
The five week turnaround from Dubai is of no concern?
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Castle Gandolfo: only had one 8f prep a month out from the Derby and was running on dirt for the first time. Johannesburg: only had one 7f prep a month out from the Derby. Master of Hounds: ran 5th in Derby (first dirt start; Kingmambo x Sadler's Wells) and after only having one run that year (UAE Derby). Daddy Long Legs: had only run/won the UAE Derby, and was previously beaten 19 lengths in the BC Juv Dirt. Lines of Battle: ran 7th in Derby (first dirt start; War Front x Arch) and after only having one run that year (UAE Derby). So, they have recently had two turf-bred runners run decent Derby races on their dirt debuts after coming from their lone prep race in Dubai. While I don't disagree that Coolmore is a breeding operation and at times just throws horses in dirt races for the sake of it, there is no question that they are also gunning for the prestige of beating Godolphin and the others to that elusive KY Derby win. They have undoubtedly learned from past experiences, as any top stable would. Mendelssohn is completely different to those that have run in the past. He has an elite dirt pedigree, has won on the surface, has shipped to the USA and won, is a G1 winner, and had been meticulously aimed/prepped for the KY Derby. They are not just hoping and giving him a chance; this has been his goal all winter/spring. Quote:
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As for his Grade 1 status, the BC Juvenile Turf has been remarkably unproductive with respect to subsequent Grade 1 winners. Oscar Performance and Bobby's Kitten (who won the equally unproductive BC Turf Sprint) are the only subsequent Grade 1 winners from all the top finishers of that race. In fact, aside from Mendelssohn's 2 wins, only Oscar Performance (3 straight stakes) and Hootenanny (2 allowance wins) have won more than one race after winning the BC Juvenile Turf. Actually, 7 of the 11 winners of that race were winless the rest of their careers. |
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