Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   Stakes Archive (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   Weekend Stakes Beyer: Mendelssohn 106; Audible 99 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64123)

Kasept 04-01-2018 07:35 AM

Weekend Stakes Beyer: Mendelssohn 106; Audible 99
 
GP Florida Derby (G1): Audible 99 (Into Mischief) T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez
GP Hardacre Mile S (G2): Conquest Big E 100 (Tapit) D. Hurtak /J. Batista
GP Honey Fox S (G3) : Lull 95 (War Front) C. Clement /J. Ortiz
GP Gulfstream Oaks (G2): Coach Rocks 80 (Oxbow) D. Romans /L. Saez
GP Pan American S (G2): Hi (Happy-ARG) 105 (Pure Prize) T. Pletcher /L. Saez
GP Cutler Bay S: Therapist 91 (Freud) C. Clement /I. Ortiz
GP Sanibel Island S: Figarella's Queen 84 (Medaglia d'Oro) G. Delgado /L. Saez
GP Opt CLM (7f): Outplay 98 (Bernardini) T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez

MEY World Cup: Thunder Snow 111 (Helmet) S. bin Suroor/C. Soumillon
MEY UAE Derby: Mendelssohn 106 (Scat Daddy) A. O'Brien/R. Moore
MEY Golden Shaheen: Mind Your Biscuits 107* (Posse) C. Summers/J. Rosario

GG San Francisco Mile S (G3): Flamboyant (FR) -- (Peer Gynt-JPN) P. Gallagher /J. Couton

OP Rainbow Miss S : Georgia's Reward -- (Warrior's Reward) R. Moquett /D. Cohen

SA Santana Mile S: Dr. Dorr -- (Lookin At Lucky) B. Baffert/ J. Talamo

FG Star Guitar S: Mobile Bay -- (Lone Star Special) V. Arceneaux / D. Saenz

Dunbar 04-01-2018 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1107522)

MEY UAE Derby: Mendelssohn 106 (Scat Daddy) A. O'Brien/R. Moore

I was feeling pretty good about my hefty Pool 2 All Others bet until this weekend. (Getting 2-1 on Justify, Magnum Moon, and several 2nd tier likely entrants--Noble Indy, Quip, Runaway Ghost...)

Not feeling all that great now!

-BT- 04-02-2018 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1107526)
I was feeling pretty good about my hefty Pool 2 All Others bet until this weekend. (Getting 2-1 on Justify, Magnum Moon, and several 2nd tier likely entrants--Noble Indy, Quip, Runaway Ghost...)

Not feeling all that great now!

something just doesn't smell right to me about Mendelssohn. Don't get me wrong, it was an amazing win against 2nd and 3rd tier competition, but what was the need to continue riding the horse so hard down the lane if you're up by 15+ lengths. I guess they had a point to prove? I don't get it, and he's this years mystery horse for me.

-bt-

cakes44 04-02-2018 10:43 AM

I'm going to be wrong when the first UAE Derby or any other foreign horse wins the KD, and I'll live with it. I love that Mendelssohn ran huge.

knickslions2 04-02-2018 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1107554)
something just doesn't smell right to me about Mendelssohn. Don't get me wrong, it was an amazing win against 2nd and 3rd tier competition, but what was the need to continue riding the horse so hard down the lane if you're up by 15+ lengths. I guess they had a point to prove? I don't get it, and he's this years mystery horse for me.

-bt-

I thought the horse ran very well but had everything perfect. Pace wasn't very fast, field was not good and track bias for speed. The derby will be much different conditions and its a tall task to come to US and win it. I most likely won't have him on any ticket unless a few of the stars here drop out in the next few weeks.

blackthroatedwind 04-02-2018 02:19 PM

I think Meydan had a rail bias....not a speed bias. Not that Mendlessohn wasn't helped immeasurably by the track, but it was the rail and not speed that was carrying horses. I think this has led to a misinterpretation of the Sprint.

knickslions2 04-02-2018 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1107561)
I think Meydan had a rail bias....not a speed bias. Not that Mendlessohn wasn't helped immeasurably by the track, but it was the rail and not speed that was carrying horses. I think this has led to a misinterpretation of the Sprint.

That's fair as speed horses usually are the ones on the rail as they get out first and I admit I didn't watch every race. The ones I saw with exception of Mind that Biscuit seemed to be won up front. Is there a Beyer on that race?

Kasept 04-02-2018 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1107562)
That's fair as speed horses usually are the ones on the rail as they get out first and I admit I didn't watch every race. The ones I saw with exception of Mind that Biscuit seemed to be won up front. Is there a Beyer on that race?

Beyer provided an unofficial 107 for Biscuits.

Listen to Andy from ATR Hour 1 for his explanation on how Mendelssohn 106 was derived.

knickslions2 04-02-2018 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1107565)
Beyer provided an unofficial 107 for Biscuits.

Listen to Andy from ATR Hour 1 for his explanation on how Mendelssohn 106 was derived.

Thanks Steve will do

RHT2004 04-02-2018 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1107555)
I'm going to be wrong when the first UAE Derby or any other foreign horse wins the KD, and I'll live with it. I love that Mendelssohn ran huge.

Yup

freddymo 04-02-2018 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1107567)
Yup

All figs are created equally all 106 figs are not equal

cakes44 04-02-2018 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1107567)
Yup

Or even finishes in the trifecta for that matter.

RolloTomasi 04-02-2018 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44 (Post 1107570)
Or even finishes in the trifecta for that matter.

Canonero II and Bold Arrangement

cakes44 04-02-2018 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1107571)
Canonero II and Bold Arrangement

Yep, Id let both of them destroy my tickets and not look back for a second.

Merlinsky 04-02-2018 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1107554)
something just doesn't smell right to me about Mendelssohn. Don't get me wrong, it was an amazing win against 2nd and 3rd tier competition, but what was the need to continue riding the horse so hard down the lane if you're up by 15+ lengths. I guess they had a point to prove? I don't get it, and he's this years mystery horse for me.

-bt-

You don't see the point of riding the horse down the lane like that? Don't horses do this all the time when prepping for a tougher race at a longer distance? You ride a horse out so they get mentally and physically prepared for the future. Nobody was close enough and enough of a challenge to push him so his jockey had to do it on his own. Obviously he could've cantered across the line and gotten little out of the race and it wouldn't have done much for the horse's seasoning since they could've cruised the last furlong. It's 1 3/16, and he ran nearly the same time Rachel ran in the Preakness. Maybe it wasn't necessary to do that much, but he's got a month to freshen up. I don't think it's a problem. It's not like he had a gut buster during the race with the pressure of a speed duel.

-BT- 04-03-2018 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1107577)
You don't see the point of riding the horse down the lane like that? Don't horses do this all the time when prepping for a tougher race at a longer distance? You ride a horse out so they get mentally and physically prepared for the future. Nobody was close enough and enough of a challenge to push him so his jockey had to do it on his own. Obviously he could've cantered across the line and gotten little out of the race and it wouldn't have done much for the horse's seasoning since they could've cruised the last furlong. It's 1 3/16, and he ran nearly the same time Rachel ran in the Preakness. Maybe it wasn't necessary to do that much, but he's got a month to freshen up. I don't think it's a problem. It's not like he had a gut buster during the race with the pressure of a speed duel.

well if you can offer me an example in the last 20 years where a horse was hard ridden up 15+ lengths heading into the biggest race of their life, then hats off to you. The horse still has to ship half way across the world, acclimate to the climate, the course, etc. etc., i just don't see the worth in blowing him out b/c, "Nobody was close enough and enough of a challenge to push him"

-bt-

RolloTomasi 04-03-2018 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT- (Post 1107554)
something just doesn't smell right to me about Mendelssohn. Don't get me wrong, it was an amazing win against 2nd and 3rd tier competition, but what was the need to continue riding the horse so hard down the lane if you're up by 15+ lengths. I guess they had a point to prove? I don't get it, and he's this years mystery horse for me.

-bt-

You have to remember that Mendelssohn is owned by Coolmore.

The overarching goal for Coolmore is not to win the Kentucky Derby, but rather to produce stallions.

A track record performance at the Group 1 level with an 18 1/2 length winning margin? Regardless of how he performs at Churchill (if he performs at all), Mendelssohn has gotten his "stallion making" race.

Kitan 04-03-2018 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1107558)
I thought the horse ran very well but had everything perfect. Pace wasn't very fast, field was not good and track bias for speed. The derby will be much different conditions and its a tall task to come to US and win it. I most likely won't have him on any ticket unless a few of the stars here drop out in the next few weeks.

I have watched almost all the races from the Carnival live, and although there was still a bit of bias, it was nowhere near as bad as it can be, especially the way it was on Super Saturday. On a completely fair track he still wins by double digits and still demolishes Reride, even if he himself isn't a top 3yo. I agree the field wasn't great, which is why I was dubious about Gold Town in the first place, but the filly looks to have ability and I guess we will find out more in the Oaks.

Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1107583)
You have to remember that Mendelssohn is owned by Coolmore.

The overarching goal for Coolmore is not to win the Kentucky Derby, but rather to produce stallions.

A track record performance at the Group 1 level with an 18 1/2 length winning margin? Regardless of how he performs at Churchill (if he performs at all), Mendelssohn has gotten his "stallion making" race.

The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on.

RolloTomasi 04-03-2018 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1107590)
The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Thanks for the correction. Something I omitted that I should have pointed was that he won on dirt, which makes him a Group/Graded winner on both surfaces, something else Coolmore strives for.

I realize that the Kentucky Derby is more important than any other race Mendelssohn can win on the main track, but again, I don't think the Coolmore people hold their breath waiting to win that sort of race in North America.

Coolmore often simply tosses horses in their main US targets (on the dirt, that is), the BC Juvenile, BC Classic, and Kentucky Derby hoping for some blind luck. Mendelssohn was close to starting in the Juvenile on the dirt but O'Brien didn't want to throw another curve ball at the colt who was starting to progress off a runner-up effort in the Dewhurst at odds of 50-1. Instead, he tossed in Group 1 winner US Navy Flag, and completed that one's massive burnout (he made 11 starts last year at 2--I have no idea if he is supposed to return). In addition, O'Brien has had great success in the BC Juvenile Turf with 2nd tier juveniles. In fact, Mendelssohn was his 4th winner of that race and the first to ever win another race subsequently.

What is interesting to note is that it is highly likely that the race strategy for Coolmore dirt attemps from now on will be an all-out send from the gate. US Navy Flag was sent in the Juvenile as was Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby. Churchill made an attempt in the BC Classic but was pinballed off of West Coast and Mubtaahij under the wire the first time 'round.

knickslions2 04-03-2018 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1107590)
I have watched almost all the races from the Carnival live, and although there was still a bit of bias, it was nowhere near as bad as it can be, especially the way it was on Super Saturday. On a completely fair track he still wins by double digits and still demolishes Reride, even if he himself isn't a top 3yo. I agree the field wasn't great, which is why I was dubious about Gold Town in the first place, but the filly looks to have ability and I guess we will find out more in the Oaks.

Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead.



The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.

Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on.

Appreciate your point of view Kitan especially being there live. Like I said the horse ran very well but still feel he had a perfect set up and has a lot to over come to win in Kentucky. There are some fast pace horses this year from what I've seen so far. Hope all is well


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:36 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.