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-   -   5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29321)

Alan07 04-29-2009 10:37 AM
5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)
 
11TH (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 West Side Bernie (Kelly Breen/Stewart Elliott) 30-1
2 Musket Man (Derek Ryan/Eibar Coa) 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty/John Velazquez) 30-1
4 Advice (Todd Pletcher/Rene Douglas) 30-1
5 Hold Me Back (Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux) 15-1
6 Friesan Fire (Larry Jones/Gabriel Saez) 5-1
7 Papa Clem (Gary Stute/Rafael Bejarano) 20-1
8 Mine That Bird (Bennie Woolley/Calvin Borel) 50-1
9 Join in the Dance (Todd Pletcher/Chris DeCarlo) 50-1
10 Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor/Alan Garcia) 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy (Jerry Hollendorfer/Mike Smith) 20-1
12 General Quarters (Tom McCarthy/Julien Leparoux) 20-1
13 I Want Revenge (Jeff Mullins/Joe Talamo) 3-1
14 Atomic Rain (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) 50-1
15 Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert/Garrett Gomez) 4-1
17 Summer Bird (Tim Ice/Chris Rosier) 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide (Nick Zito/Shaun Bridgmohan) 50-1
19 Desert Party (Saeed bin Suroor/Ramon Dominguez) 15-1
20 Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas/Robby Albarado) 50-1

10 pnt move up 04-29-2009 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan07
Want Revenge, trained by Jeff Mullins, will be the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia set the odds this morning before the draw at noon and is not expected to make substantial changes after the post positions are set.

Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
Advice N/A Todd Pletcher 30-1
Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 42-1
Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1
Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez J. Larry Jones 5-1
General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1
Join in the Dance N/A Todd Pletcher 50-1
Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Jr. 50-1
Mr. Hot Stuff N/A Eoin Harty 30-1
Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
Nowhere to Hide N/A Nick Zito 50-1
Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 9-2
Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1
I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

South Beach Luv 04-29-2009 10:44 AM
Chocolate Candy fans have to love that price

robfla 04-29-2009 10:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by South Beach Luv
Chocolate Candy fans have to love that price
has to be a typo... probably 20:1


I was anticipating 15:1 - 20:1 ML for him

LARHAGE 04-29-2009 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.
That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

10 pnt move up 04-29-2009 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LARHAGE
That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.
I think it was meant to be 12/1.

Mike 04-29-2009 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LARHAGE
That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

That's a must-be mistake.
He's been 15-1 on most people's probable list, and I think with Quality Road out, I'd be lucky to get that(my wagers will revolve around Choco)

skippy3481 04-29-2009 11:34 AM
he is 20-1

Danzig 04-29-2009 12:40 PM
general quarters 20-1. if i was at the track, that would be one horse i would seriously consider betting. musket man is another.
but who i really would put a couple bucks on, just because?


dwl and flying private at 50-1.

dagolfer33 04-29-2009 01:07 PM
Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

Bobby Fischer 04-29-2009 01:20 PM
it could always be worse
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagolfer33
Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.
Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

jms62 04-29-2009 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LARHAGE
That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.
Zitos pigs have waddled their way into the Super and crushed my dreams all too often.

CSC 04-29-2009 01:28 PM
Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

Linny 04-29-2009 01:49 PM
I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

jwkniska 04-29-2009 01:50 PM
Desert Party's the 'wise guy' horse, so he probably put it alot lower due to that.

ateamstupid 04-29-2009 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.
I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

CSC 04-29-2009 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.
I prefer Regal Ransom from a pace perspective, there really wasn't much difference between the 2 from their Dubai preps if you exclude the middle race where DP won by 4 1/2, but the best way to decide is view the replays for yourself. I'm going to work both of them into my picks, they are my main plays this year because they offer excellent value, I'll throw in a saver somewhere also.

tjfla 04-29-2009 01:54 PM
Desert Party will be about 7/1 as the wiseguy horse

Dunkirk and Friesan Fire should drop

cakes44 04-29-2009 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"
Now that is funny.

LARHAGE 04-29-2009 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
Zitos pigs have waddled their way into the Super and crushed my dreams all too often.
I'm sure if the other 16 horses have to avoid another road bump like him and fall, he'll hit the super, he would have his hands full with the lead pony.


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