Derby Trail Forums - 6/1: Penn National (4th-11th); Belmont (8th; X-C P5)

PENN NATIONAL RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: New Start-PA, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 I'm the Talent 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Gotta Be Strong 9-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Cardi B 8-1 6th

5th: Danzig-PA, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Call Paul obviously the horse to beat returning to PA-bred company, but despite the 3/1-1-1 record in '19, he really hasn't advanced much as a 3yo. With lots of pace lined up to his inside, Franco will want to stalk from the outside, but cant get hung too wide in the process. The top pick, but an underlay and seemingly vulnerable with several others very close to his talent level. Note too the intriguing presence of hot-working Sheppard firster What a Laugh, half to stakes-winning Rose Tree..

Most Likely: #10 Call Paul 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #9 Thiscatcanjump 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Splicethemainbrace 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Admiral Abe 6-1 8th

6th: Penn Ladies Dash, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Ms Locust Point 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cairenn 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Crabcakes 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Yorkiepoo Princess 6-1 5th

7th: Chocolate Town Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Killybegs Captain 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Laki 2-1 4th (3rd for wagering)
Exotics Use: #1e Uptowncharleybrown entry 3-1 WON ($5.80)/3rd
Super Add: #5 Home Run Maker 9-2 5th

P4 Grid:

4: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
5: 9-10 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
6: 2-5 (A), 3-4 (B), 7 (C)
7: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Pennine Ridge (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD)

Terrific and notably well-connected group with both Todds (St. Elias/Viola & Elkstone/Grant) and both Chads (Klarman & Brant) formidable as well as the Asmussen (Phoenix TB's), Mott (Juddmonte) & Maker (Bloom)colts. Simply a matter of how honest the pace turns out to be..

Best Value: #8 Henley's Joy 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Seismic Wave 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Value Proposition 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Clint Maroon 3-1 5th

8th: Susquehanna, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Dynatail 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Enchanted Ghost 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Souper Striking 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Unbridled Escape 9-2 5th

9th: PA Governor's Cup, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Pure Sensation 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #2 Completed Pass 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Square Shooter 7-2 4th

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
7: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)

10th: Penn Oaks, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Regal Glory 6-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #5 Alasaayil 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Ujjayi 6-1 6th

11th: Penn Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m-T (DD)

SCR #7 Empire of War

Best Value: #4 Real News 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 A Thread of Blue 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 The Black Album 15-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Casa Creed 6-1 2nd

X-C P5 Grid:

BEL 8: 1-5-7-8 (A), 3-4-6 (B), - (C)
PEN 8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
PEN 9: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
PEN 10: 7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
PEN 11: 2-4-6 (A), 1-3-5-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x2x2x1x6 = 168 x .50 = $84
All A's: 4x2x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/1,2,3/1,4/2,6,7/1) Paid $342.25

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 1-2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
10: 7 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4-6 (A), 1-5-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x8 = 64 x .50 = $32
All A's: 2x2x1x4 = $16 ($8 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,2,3/1,4/2,6,7/1) Paid $29.55

Good luck!
Steve