Show Parlay
 

I thought some might find this interesting...below is the cumulative return on the selections I made in the Santa Anita ShowVivor contest. This is based on a Show Parlay strategy. In other words, bet X to show, get Y in return. Take Y and bet show, get Z, take Z and bet show, get A....you get the idea.

I managed to survive 17 rounds, which is achievable by anyone using the most basic of handicapping logic. Perhaps one might set their limit and take profits at round 10 or 12, or maybe even sooner than that. I find this interesting considering the amount of money that is thrown at Pick 4's, 6's, Magna 5's...It's a relatively "safe" way to start with a modest amount of money and end up with something substantial. I know it's not going to fall in favor with most bettors on this board, but nonetheless, take it for what it is...

Payout % Return Cumulative % Return
$2.10 1.05
$2.60 1.3 1.365
$2.20 1.1 1.5015
$2.40 1.2 1.8018
$2.10 1.05 1.89189
$2.10 1.05 1.9864845
$2.40 1.2 2.3837814
$2.10 1.05 2.50297047
$2.60 1.3 3.253861611
$2.10 1.05 3.416554692
$2.10 1.05 3.587382426
$2.10 1.05 3.766751547
$2.10 1.05 3.955089125
$2.10 1.05 4.152843581
$2.10 1.05 4.36048576
$2.20 1.1 4.796534336
$2.10 1.05 5.036361053

The moral of the story, should someone want to take a couple hundred bucks and parlay it on one show bet for 17 races (just pick a favorable race on the card), they could make about a thousand fairly quickly. At about round 10, I would have made approximately 350% return.

Last time I did the showvivor contest I managed to stay alive 12 rounds, so I think making it to 10 is very achievable.

Anyone serious about their money realizes that this is a substantial return in comparison to other alternatives available to make money!

Show parlays are fun...
If a group of us is at the track, (and especially if we have novice handicappers with us) it's a fun way for everyone to throw in $5 or $10 to start and build enough money to pay the dinner and/or bar tab.

I find it difficult for me personally to approach the bet seriously as a means towards achieving a Positive ROI, because it doesn't have the instant gratification or exotic appeal of exactas, trifectas, pick 3s, etc...

Still, I agree the possibilities are there.

And, hey, if that's what a person wants to use it for....that's perfectly fine as well. It can pay the tab for sure....well, for most.

That was a nice run you had. It is harder than people think to win show bets. Inevitably one just doesn't run well or gets caught in a speed dual of some type.

You suggest that succeeding for 10 rounds is relatively easy, and yields a return in the 350% range. A 350% yield means a profit of 2.5-1. If the bet was fair, the chance of winning a 2.5-1 bet is 29%. For the 10-race show parley to be a good bet, you'd have to win it more than 29% of the time. Do you think hitting 10 show bets in a row has more than a 29% chance of happening? For that to be true, many of the individual show bets would have to be paying better than fair odds. I see no reason to believe that's the case.

IMO, you had a lucky run in two samples. I'm not saying that it isn't a fun way to try to build up a profit. You may get more bang (in terms of time/$$) for your buck than many other ways. But in pure $$ value, I don't see any advantage over just taking a 5/2 shot to win.

You can do a test of this over in the "Contests" forum, if you really think it works. (See randall's ongoing place vs exacta test as an excellent example of how to proceed). Because the odds involved in your test are so low, you would only need to do maybe 20 attempts to get a reasonable estimate of how good the idea is. (the more, the better, however) You would need to specify the number of total attempts ahead of time, then you'd need to post the 10 show bets ahead of time before each attempt. (you don't need to post all 10 at once, but each "pick" would have to be posted before its race.) I'm pretty confident you'd end up with a negative ROI.

--Dunbar

No, I don't mean to make it sound like it is easy. It requires a degree of patience, picking your spots (maybe one or two a day that are "mortal locks" in the mind of the bettor), strategically selecting races with fewer than 7 entrants, using confirmed angles for the track being bet. I do think it's possible to do more than 29% of the time...I have no statistical backing at this point, but based on my experience I do consider this to be a risk well worth taking.

This last contest I did, in fact, post my picks to the board until I was eliminated. Were I actually betting, I probably would have schnitzeled a little off at about round 10 as profit. And, based on my experience in this contest, I think I could have done this over a course of 5 to 10 days.

What's more, I think this can be done at least a third of the time if one is patient enough to pick races with small fields of 6 or less.

I may take up this experiment at a time that is not so hectic. Right now, I'm a little too busy to commit to it. If someone else would like to try it out, feel free. I will join in when the studies aren't demanding so much of my time. for now, consider my string of 12 and 17 to be the first of 20 attempts. Fair enough? Unfortunately I don't still have the picks from the first contest as that was a good 3 or 4 months ago. But, I suspect the return was very similar. I do still have the picks from the round of 17 if anyone is interested enough to confirm....I suspect no one is so I will leave it at that!

Well, yeah, but that's a little harder!! But, just for informational purposes, 13 of the 17 came in first or second. But, to be honest, I can't remember the intervals they came in...I don't think I ever went 10 consecutive firsts and seconds...perhaps, but I'm not making that claim...

One of my gambling buddys does this. He starts out with $200 and all he wants to do is to double that each times he goes to the track. He succeeds more times than he fails. He picks what would be percieved as a safe bet in a small field. He does pretty well. To me it is fun to do, but I dont get as much excitement from a horse running 3rd.

IS THAT ALL???? Just double? I'm just kidding you....

If one were to do what I'm talking about, it would be more like double their money in about 10 days... if one were to play all the races on a card, I don't believe this strategy would work well enough to be profitable.

I agree with Dunbar....There is a reason why bridge jumping is a bad strategy. There are no sure things and 3-5 horses run off the board all the time. Where a baseball player is a millionaire if he can get a hit 3 out of 10 times, you will be a net loser if you are trying for a 2.10 show price and need to do it at a factor of 10 to get only a 5-2 return. Just not worth it...I'm not against an occasional show wager if a pool is faulty or the field is large enough....But that is different than trying to get the chalk home that many times in a row.

Randall, I meant this to be considered under the assumption of a modest amount of money....I consider a bridge jumper to be a not so modest amount of money taken completely from the pocket of the bettor, whereas what I'm suggesting is a modest amount built up on other people's money. I suppose one could categorize this as bridge jumping at a certain point but, to the bettor, he/she only stands to lose what he/she initially started with which, again, is a modest amount of money. Perhaps a couple hundred bucks.

Jman,
Someone trying to get 2.10 on a bet, whether they are betting 10,000 or 2$ is doing the same thing....And since I think bridge jumping is a bad practice, the same goes for the 2$ bettor....But there are people who subscribe to your thinking so I'm not being critical of you.

No, that is supremely unfair. You do not start an experiment with back data. You start fresh.

Having said that, I would be very interested in seeing your experiment go forward. If you are very carefully choosing your races, I don't rule out the possibility that you could have an edge. But it's a very bad idea to conclude you have an edge based on 2 attempts plus some anecdotal evidence from friends.

For the record, randall, I don't necessarily think bridge jumping is a bad strategy.

--Dunbar

Boy I sure do Dunbar. When you could get a rebate on horses with low show prices, that's something. But a straight 5% win needing to put up decent money to get any decent return will end badly eventually.

I'm more exploring this than advocating it. I've only occasionally done it in practice.

While I agree that the tactic is the same, it's not the same effect to risk $10,000 vs. $2 to make a 5% profit. I know what you mean....but, don't fully agree.

I would be more than happy to start fresh, but what's wrong with me using picks that I posted to this board (in advance of the race itself) for the last contest. I've just posted the payouts and cumulative returns at the top of this thread. As far as I'm concerned that meets the criteria of any pick I would make in the "experiment." I made the picks...it should at least count for the 1st of 20 since I disclosed them in the Showvivor thread.

Guys, I don't consider this bridge jumping....I think whether bridge jumping is a good or bad strategy depends on how much a person can stand to lose. JMHO.

Betting any horse where your expected payout is 2.10 is bridge jumping. No, you aren't putting 100 grand on the horse so you won't be jumping off the Verrazano. But for that guy where 10 bucks matters, he may be jumping into the kiddie pool with floaties attached....and for 50 cents?

50 cents now....a buck later....10 bucks later....100 bucks later....oh, did I just lose 100? Oh, no I didn't....just 10 bucks...

Semantics Jman.

hahaha....well, at least admit that it does matter whose money you're playing with. :)

jman, I don't doubt that you made and posted the picks. But it's bad statistics to decide after the fact that you are going to include some results you already obtained in a longer study that wasn't specified ahead of time.

Let's say I walk by a roulette table, and I see that red has come up 5 times in a row (on the history display). If I see one more red come up, does that make it REALLY likely that red is a good strategy?

If you had said ahead of time, 'guys, I'm going to test a show parlay theory and post all my picks here', then fine. Those first 2 sets would belong. But it's bad statistical practice to decide after-the-fact that certain bets count.

At any rate, if there is any merit in show parlays, you should be able to demonstrate it without resorting to past bets.

--Dunbar

I guess the way I see it, I was at the roulette table playing....so, by your analogy, it would be okay to use as part of the sample. I could very easily say, "Hey, I picked red, I'll try red 19 more times and that'll make 20"....

If I do this, it will be a rather long experiment. I will likely use the most recent picks I made as the first sample because they're there for everyone to see if they wish, so long as that thread doesn't get deleted.

If it's even remotely close at the end of the experiment I suppose I could always do one more round.

This would be about like Grits hitting a $100 exacta and telling randall, "see? let's compare exactas to place bets, but I want to start with my $100 exacta."

jman, you will get into trouble down the line if you don't understand that a test has to be well-defined before the test starts. You will find angles that look good, but are really just flukes of the way you are measuring.

--Dunbar

Dunbar...I'd do it just for you buddy. :p

May as well get this thing started because it's going to take long enough as it is!! :eek:

Here's what I'll do... the object of the experiment is to see how good a bet the show parlay is (for me). I will take a hypothetical $100 and bet it to show on a horse, take the payout and bet it on another horse, until I reach 10 picks. After 10, that round is over, I will document the payouts and move on to the next round. If I pick a horse that doesn't show before reaching 10, I will start a new round. I will do this 20 rounds and we will see how it goes. I've said I think I can do this about a third of the time (although that's really just a hunch)...

So, for today...a couple picks from SA (all to Show of course)

Race 2 - 3 Heatseeker (2nd) Paid $3.00....Running Total $150

Race 3 - 6 Cantbeatwhatucantc (Won) Paid $2.20....Running Total $165

Bay Meadows

Race 3 - Blue Eyed Blonde (2nd) Paid $2.20....Running Total $182 82% return on the day...I might just quit right here. :)


This is all for today as these were the only races that fit my strategy...actually, there was 1 more at BM, but I missed it in scanning the program.

jman, that's great. I didn't think you were really going to tackle it already.

You've spelled out the conditions very precisely, too.

One suggestion:

Don't post your results into the same post (via editing) as you post your picks. If you edit your picks post, it makes it hard to verify that you aren't past posting. You can just put up a follow-up post that shows how your bets did that day, and gives an updated overall recap. If that seems like too much extra work, I'll be glad to do the stat-posting. All you'd have to do is put up your picks. Let me know.

The moderators may want to move this thread to "Contests" or "Selections". [EDIT: Ha! I didn't remember that they already HAD moved it! Thanks, moderators!]

Nice start on the parlay! Just 7 more to go. btw, take your time with this--it doesn't matter if it takes a long time to get enough picks for all 20 trials.

--Dunbar

No time better than the present! Thought I would take advantage of a couple spots today. Don't worry, this will take months most likely to get 20 rounds....unless I do 3 and out on every round. In that case, it would only take a few weeks....

Don't worry about tabulating everything. I will keep track of what's what... Trust me, I won't change picks once I've posted them, without disclosing it of course. Set your email up to subscribe to this thread and you'll get every post as I make them! (before any edits) ;)

Here's to 7 more for round 1....and hopefully many more $3.00 payouts!! :D

Hate to admit it, but I didn't realize you could subscribe that way. See, I've already learned something from your test!

--Dunbar

No doubt. Make sure you manage your subscriptions though because it's convenient, but loads the inbox up in a hurry if you're subscribed to very many threads!

I see some plays coming up on Wednesday for Bay Meadows. Perhaps one at SA, AQ and OP as well and, believe it or not, one from Fairmount on Tuesday. Will have to look into it more to see which ones to play. But, as you said, no rush...

Pending any scratches, I will play the following:

Fairmount Park Tuesday:

Race 6 - 5 Lexi's Moon (a Ralph Martinez/Lou O'Brien special)

at Bay Meadows on Wednesday...
Race 1 - 5 Justice is Brief

Race 2 - 3 PR's Princess

Race 3 - 6 Cliff Dweller

One more, OP for Wed....

Race 3 - 5 Adore You

Hey, thanks for doing this. It's interesting, though not something I'd ever be that interested in doing with my own money. On the other hand, it might be a fun, safe(r) way to play with some friends this summer at AP who aren't comfortable footing portions of multi-race wagers.

Race 6 - 5 Lexi's Moon (a Ralph Martinez/Lou O'Brien special) - (Won) Paid $2.60.... Running Total $237.

Justice is Brief finished out of the money. I'm going to assume that you are starting a new series with Race 2 at BM.

(it's just before the race as I write this.)

--Dunbar

Good, PR's Princess won. So the new series starts with a win. (and more important, no reason for us to disagree about procedure! ;>)

--Dunbar

Round 1 ended on the 6th try....Justice is Brief ran out of the money, but not until after Adore You ran third at OP returning $2.20. The running total came to a halt at $261.

Round 2 started off right but ended abruptly....

PR's Princess returned $2.20 to bring the running total to $110, but Cliff Dweller had to be a slug and finish 4th.

Round 3 will commence at a time TBD as I will be out of town all weekend. At this pace, I could be finished by the end of April. :D

You shouldn't be too discouraged. You only need about 33% to look very good.

--Dunbar

Okay, get started with Round 3 of this madness....

Today at Finger Lakes :)

Race 1
pp5 Kimry Moor

Race 3
pp1 A Very Young Jet

Fairmount Park

Race 1
Entries 1 and 1A - Monetary Monarch and White Heat

Race 4
pp3 Rock of Fame