Thoro-Graph
 

I've been gambling for 25+ years, always have used DRF. and I do pretty well. I have never used Thoro-Graph, and looking at it, it looks like a chinese phonebook.

My questions are:

a.) How much do you need to bet per wager to make thoro-graph valuable

Price - 1st Product $25, 2nd - $20, 3+ $15. Individual Races - $5

b.) How hard is it to learn how to read them?


c.) anything else i need to know about the product?

thx - rob

I am extremely far from an expert on this, however, I think I can add a novice opinion that can add value.

Read the website, front to back. Buy the sheets for a few days and get your feet wet.

I attended a couple of the seminars this past summer at the Spa. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I was there for the Montreal smoked meat -- OK, that's another thread, LOL. Anyway, what I found -- personally -- that was key to me are a couple of things. First, what the figures include as far as variables is important to me -- just like with Beyer #'s. What do they include, what do they exclude, etc. The TG #'s do not take class into consideration (please someone correct me if I am wrong).

Second -- what seemed key to me was that after you look at the #'s, you really need to start to learn about "patterns" and how horses will and will not perform vis a vis the #'s. Seeing patterns develop over time and learning about them, becoming more experienced with them, etc. seems to be valuable.

Good luck.

Eric

ROBFLA,

If you register with Thorograph you can download the previous days sheets for free. This will enable you to get your feet wet without spending a dime. You can see what type of patterns win and whether the sheets are for you.

Do they hold them every year? And if so, where did you hear about it?

There's a video where this guy explains it. Their numbers are basically speed figures that take more things into account than Beyer figures. That's probably what is so expensive. What I found helpful was how the guy was explaining patterns. One could possibly use other speed figures to develop patterns, without paying all that loot for thoro's speed figures.

Nic,

We hold them at my Carolina Barbecue joint.. across from the Carousel 'Teletheater'.. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, 11:00-12:00... Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Julian Weinberg and Bill Spillane alternate as hosts.. (With me chiming in.. :D).

Thanks! :)

Well, Steve already answered. Actually, now that you ask, I am not sure I remember where I heard about it. It might have been on Sirius/ATRAB, or there may have been something in the form, program, etc.

Steve might have told us about the seminar and we confirmed the time on the webiste. Actually, my wife and I walked over to the stand -- not regarding the seminar. I heard about the Montreal smoked meat. Steve approached my wife and I as we were standing there and I was telling my wife about my younger days in Montreal, and my daily (often more than once) lunch of smoked meat. Oh the memories, LOL.

So, you show up at the Carolina BBQ stand. There's a cast of characters there -- and I truly mean that in a good way! The seminars are really good. The in-house experts give out their picks and are always willing to answer questions. A great group of people.

Eric

my real question is how much do people who buy the TG sheets bet per race. Obviously if you bet $2 - $5 per race it doesnt make sense to buy them, but where is the threshold? do people who buy them bet $50 per race, $100, $1000 per race.

I don't use them...but I'm not sure that the amount bet is really that relevant...(it is and it isn't)...because if they become the tool that helps you find that 20-1 horse that can get up and win then it doesn't matter if you are only betting 5 dollars because that will have covered your expense with one bet...

Rob, when I get home from work we can talk. I was in your exact spot about two years ago, converted, and BAAM. I pick winners and I have steadily grown my annual output per year, mostly becuase I am picking more winners.

As of right now, I am putting through about $40-$60 a race, top out at a like $400 a race(unless special circumstance) and min is about $12 per race

FINALLY!!!! ( thought i might have to re-word the question ):D :D :D :eek:

Ok, this is my ballpark


Thank you

Alot of mind wagers in the $40 to $60 range are double/pk3/pk4.

I think those type wagers are what makes thorograph top notch. It doesn't necessarily pick winners for you, but it does eliminate horses, thus maximizing your wagers.

Pre-TG, I was playing $1 pick three tickets that cost me $24-$48...Now, I can play a $1 pick three ticket in the $8 to $16 range, and punch it a couple times. So my amount didn't change, but how many times I hit it did.

Perfect example is SA yesterday. I loved Noble Court/Balance so I singled them in the last two legs of a pick three ticket. Now, I did'nt like the favorite in the 7th race (Claiming 10k race, monteleone horse that was 6/5) Essentially, to me, he looked like crap on the sheets so I tossed him, and played a $20 pick three, 7/2/4 and $10 pick three 6,8/2/4, there was value there by tossing that 6/5 and finding the other winners, AND that payout got screwed by that Austin horse getting scratched the gate, probably would have paid $25-28 per $1 if he stays in, that horse wasn't being Noble Court, and Balance won easily. ...Total of $40 wagered and I got back $326 or something.

The final pick 3 at SA was great. Paid a whopping $8. Almost as good as when Invasor won the Don for the last leg that paid $5.

That's the route I've taken. I save charts off of DRF and go back to see what I can make of the information on TG.

Robfla, been using TG's for about the last year and a half consistently. We kinda touched on this before when they were offering them for free the last week of December, but I would agree with the suggestion of using the Redboard room, where you can get the previous day's data for free, you can also get the analysis of certain cards, this way you can compare your picks to their's. The ROTW goes into more detail on reading patterns, very valuable. How long it takes to get proficient using them would certainly vary. As far as the bankroll question is concerned, agree with Scav; you need to be prepared to play all the races (although not necessarily for the same amount), I look at it as even if you don't have a strong opinion, the edge you get with the TG's is still enough to play the race. Finally, I recomend getting familiar with the full "Sheets", as opposed to the Thoro-quick, it's much easier to get a feel for the patterns, as opposed to just checking the numbers. I used thoro-quick for a while to save paper and ink, since switching to the full sheets, my handicapping has gotten much better, (unfortunately, my betting is still inconsistent).

Alright Rob
 

Ask away, I am off work and ready to talk about Thorograph

Great thread and great info.

Eric

Alright, Rob has stage fright. Here is what Thorograph did for me or things to know

1) Use this as a TOOL and not your only information. I got caught into the trap about half way through, when I started doing really well, where I was just using the sheets and using the best three numbers, not a good way and I went broke fast. learning experience.

2) TG allows me to play tickets I like more often becuase it eliminates horses that I would have generally used. You can almost ALWAYS talk yourself into any horse for any specific reason. TG for me is used as a check point, where I can see if I am on the right path for the race. As I said earlier, I used to play pick threes that were 2x4x6 for $48 and I can now change that into a 2x2x3 ticket that I can play for 4 more times, thus when I hit the ticket, I am 4x richer. Less wasted opportunity and better use of funds. I rarely play just one pick three ticket in a race now, becuase I have more funds to play the ticket more times.

3) Some people use it for 'number' power which is fine, but you become REAL good when you use it for 'pattern' power. When you can start predicting a 'top' is when you start hitting some good tickets, and some great exactas

4) The one thing I love about TG is that Jerry Brown, owner of Thorograph, believes VERY STRONGLY in his product, he wants to be the BEST, and while it is argued, currently is the best. Determination like that usually doesn't go unrecogized or unsuccessful.

5) The ability to learn using their Redboard room is amazing. What I did was I wouldnt look at the results, I would get the changes for the day, and the next day I would go to the redboard room and download two tracks, I would then see I thought would run tops or win the race, given the conditions. Then look at the results. While it really doesn't mean much to pick a winner after the race was run, and their is alot more that goes into a wager then just TG sheets, it does get you comfortable with them and reading them 'pre-race'. I was fortunate to have people like Byk to lean on regarding reading numbers in my early stages. He still haven't taught me how to wager though :) (Which I believe no one can, it is something you just have to figure out IMO) The resources that you have here alone will help you. I wish more Rag guys would comment on their sheets here, it would be interesting to discuss them.

6) The abundance of information, while tiresome and somewhat overwhelming, will get you some winners. I was talking with Byk a couple weeks ago and told him that I was never using the trainer profiles until he started yapping about them, and since then I have found some real good priced winners just quickly scanning in there for some off the wall %'s, that no one besides TG have access to.

"3) Some people use it for 'number' power which is fine, but you become REAL good when you use it for 'pattern' power. When you can start predicting a 'top' is when you start hitting some good tickets, and some great exactas"

By the same token, you can also predict bounces or poor races based on identifying patterns you don't like. 2 examples from Saturday at Gulfstream:
Race 1, #1 Complex Goals, recent pattern was 6 (top), 11 and 8..for me the 8 was too close to the top (6), while not getting back to it, making this an unhealthy pattern.
Race 5, #6 British Attitude, recent pattern, 5, 5, then 2 (top), 2 was a 3 point top on turf, thought the horse would bounce off that number.

Now these are 2 examples that I was correct about.. many more that I was incorrecton (Stormy Ray@#@#), but we won't discuss them, although I would like to ask a question about Vicarian in the 4th race. Scav, did you have the TG's for Saturday? This is a horse I absolutely loved... his strange bolting of the turn RUINED my day. Any thoughts?

Stormy Ray really pissed me off this weekend, that race was nutty, F'n Douglas just went nuts after getting smoked on DOA. GOD DAMN OMAGGIO JUST LOVES TO BURN MY MONEY. I had the TG's this weekend. I actually tossed Vicarian and had Zito's horses (although i didn't like the 1a, I liked the 1) and I had Pletchers firster (sucked in there)(got real lucky in this race as I should have known better on Zito's 1 horse, who ran hard in his first race out on the stretch out). the whole bounce thing is very subjective. I know one very good handicapper that swears it is BS but then you look at TG's and the 0-2=x is a pretty solid angle, especially in dirt racing and quick timing.

Explain
Was the pattern reading 6,11,8 as last race to first race or 8,11,6 as the 8 was his last race?

Three back was the top 6, two back was the 11, and his last race before Saturday was the 8.

The reason I liked Vicarion so much was that his most recent race, a 5, came attempting to close at 7 furlongs, 3 wide the whole race, very much against the bias. I thought 4 weeks rest was enough to overcome the effort, and with the trip he was getting (before he bolted!), I thought he was going to run off the screen, which he ended up doing at the turn. The 1a's debut race was a 12 or 13, which means he needed to jump up big time, or others would have had to regress (which happened, I don't know).

yeah, i was camera shy, just like some of my horses :)

anyways, thanks - esp scav and golf

that was valuable info, and definately what i was wondering. i'll keep lurking here and check out their website in more detail.

So the pattern read

----8
------11
-6

Depending on the timing, it could be construed either way. In some cases I would have thought she would have busted through that 6

Seriously man, REDBOARD ROOM, get on it as I expect you to be nailing races with more consistency, starting the Arlington meet

Exactly right, I used the Thoro-pattern stats (over 75 percent to run an off or x race), plus this is just a pattern that I've seen so many times recently, I never look at it positively, just lately I've begun to look at it negatively.
Of course, had he been 15-1 instead of one of the favorites... I might have seen it differently.

2 things I've learned recently, #'s versus odds, if the odds are right, many patterns can look "good", and don't key a horse off an "effort" with less than 3 weeks rest (this one came from the Len Freidman, sorry JB).

I don't want to diss Freidman, fact is that I have heard many stories how the guy is just one of the best handicappers of all time, I heard this from of all people, a thorograph person. From what I have seen, that goes into those numbers, some of Freidman's numbers are skewed pretty heavily (The most recent one I remember was that El Prado horse (greely was the trainer) that ran huge race at Belmont two years ago, right before the BC) Comparing Rags vs TG in that specific horse was downright sickening and TG's number was alot more solid of a number in my opinion. I have heard that TG's are roughly 2-4 pts faster then Rags, this was about 9 points, if I remember correctly

I am an avid reader of both boards, Freidman posts his picks (and reasoning) for certain races every now and then. Jerry doesn't because he is selling the analysis (absolutely nothing wrong with this, but it does tend to limit pre-race discussions on the TG board). Which is why it is so great we can have those discussions here, with Steve and others. I started off using Rags in the mid 90's (bought them at the Meadowlands).. switched to TG's due to their customer friendly web-site and attitude. I have followed all of Jerry's statements about figure making and the difference between him and Ragozin.. what he says makes sense!

Yeah, I think his accessibity is a great thing. That alone helps his product as the guy that CREATES THEM and 'touts' them is there and available. I don't know much about Len and more so about the Len vs JB feud, but it is pretty darn comical at times. I wish Len would actually debate it but he is afraid IMO. I might be wrong about this though.