Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?
 

Does anyone have any horses they like in pool 1 that might be worth a small wager.

Derby Pool 1
# Name M/L Odds
1 Adore the Gold 20-1
2 Any Given Saturday 20-1
3 Belgravia 20-1
4 Buffalo Man 30-1
5 Circular Quay 15-1
6 Day Pass 15-1
7 Dreaming of Anna (f) 15-1
8 Drums of Thunder 30-1
9 EZ Warrior 15-1
10 Exhale 20-1
11 Forefathers 30-1
12 Great Hunter 30-1
13 Hard Spun 20-1
14 Lawrence the Roman 30-1
15 Liquidity 20-1
16 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
17 Notional 15-1
18 Out of Gwedda 30-1
19 Ravel 15-1
20 Scat Daddy 30-1
21 Stormello 20-1
22 Street Sense 12-1
23 Zanjero 30-1
24 All Other 3 YO's 7-2



Oaks Pool 1
# Name M/L Odds
1 Appealing Zophie 30-1
2 Baroness Thatcher 15-1
3 Bel Air Beauty 30-1
4 Boca Grande 12-1
5 Cash Included 20-1
6 Catch The Thrill 50-1
7 Cotton Blossom 20-1
8 Devil House 30-1
9 Dreaming of Anna 4-1
10 Enchanting Star 50-1
11 Five Star Daydream 30-1
12 Get Ready Bertie 20-1
13 Jump On In 12-1
14 Meditations 20-1
15 Mistical Plan 20-1
16 Octave 12-1
17 Quick Little Miss 30-1
18 Rags to Riches 20-1
19 Romance is Diane 20-1
20 Runway Rosie 30-1
21 Successful Outlook 20-1
22 Sutra 50-1
23 Untouched Talent 50-1
24 All Other 3 YO Fillies 3-1

I'm going to play $30 on Any Given Saturday, $10 on Adore the Gold, $5 on Forefathers, and $5 on Drums of Thunder. . .

I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . .

I wouldn't go too crazy with futures. . . especially with the lower priced horses. . . You can always wrap them up in exotics on Derby Day. . .

I love her as well (Jim Squires bred her.) As for my derby horse, I'm sticking with Liquidity, but I doubt I'll make a futures bet on him because his odds (if he enters the gate) will probably be higher than that on derby day.

Right now (granted we're super early in the betting), Liquidity looks like an absolute steal. I don't like the horse very much (not in my top 5-10), but with odds vs. talent, his odds are way out of whack...we'll see how the rest of the weekend goes before deciding.

Drums of Thunder is an interesting one in there too at lofty odds.

Maybe even Forefathers if he stays near 70-1.

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case


-bt-

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

I think the worst bet right now is anyone in the Oaks.
Outside of Dreaming of Anna (who may not even go to the Oaks) there doesn't seem to be any standouts at all.
The fact that neither Octave or Cotton Blossom are showing up in the Davona Dale may be proof that they are as mediocre as they looked last fall.
The fillies out west are all jumbled together, too.
It's just a mess trying to figure out this division.

Hard Spun has been bet down to 9-1 as of right now. . . I think you'll get better odds on him in May. . .

live odds: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime

Analysis and "post positions": http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/co...1-horse-horse-

Barbaro wasn't either! He wanted nothing to do with them... :D

In that case, save ur money...Thx hockey for the updated odds...

if i had to make a bet:

Circular Quay: 20-1, if this horse makes it to the Derby i don't think there is a chance that he will have this high of odds. The public will not let those connections be that high of a price (unless he throws in some clunkers between now and may)

Forfathers: 80-1, for sh!ts an giggles


-bt-

Derby Pool 1?
 

Anybody have the updated pool 1 odds after yesterday? I can't find them anywhere for some reason. Thanks.

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me ;) can't do it from here.

Its too bad they could not come up with a system where you could buy and sell "shares" in horses at market value. You could buy into a horse at the price quoted and the price rises and falls based upon the shares sold. Would be a much better system and probably attract much more money than this one.

Some value here, but I wouldn't place a bet on any of the favorites. Odds are you'll see equal to better odds depending on how the Derby preps are run.

What do you want, I'll book it at whatever it closes at for you on Sunday? You aren't going to bet much anyway, so I don't mind. We'll talk later.

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

pgardn,
The only one that looks good to me is Exhale...but not at 20-1.
In the Oaks...all others.

I'm betting Exhale and Ravel. Since I'm not betting a ton of money I'm waiting until the last minute on Sunday to see if I'm getting better odds in the future pool or at bodog.com. Ravel is 22-1 at bodog so I suspect I'll be betting him there. Exhale is 40-1 at bodog. I'm not sure if he'll be that high in the futures pool come Sunday or not. As far as Exhale is concerned I'm basically betting on whether or not he starts in the Derby. If he does(which is a big if) he will be much lower than the 40-1 odds being offered considering the fact that he will have to run VERY well in the Lewis and Santa Anita Derby to have enough earnings to make the starting gate in the KY Derby. I'm thinking I'm going to put $50 on Ravel at 22/1 and $50 on Exhale wherever I can get the best odds.

I'll look at the odds on Sunday and maybe play one who didn't start this weekend. Looking @ Belgravia, Great Hunter, Adore the Gold @ > 35-1.

Yeah, I've thought about how cool that could be too. Guess which horse is going to throw up a big win next out and suddenly become the new hot horse so you can unload him for a profit. I think it is a lot easier to do that now than to try and find a Derby winner.

Ravel has a nice long stride and looks to have a bright future with added distance. He's my early pick, but I always wait to wager till post parade.

I have never bet these, and I probably won't start this year, but as I type, Adore the Gold is 46-1. That seems like a pretty good value after his race in the Swale.

Well, you CAN do that at places like EhorseX and Tradesports. I don't think they have futures for the Derby up yet, but they have put them up pretty early in the past. And I know Tradesports is responsive to email requests, if someone is eager to get going.

Each of those sites functions as a market in which shares in Derby contenders are bought and sold.

Of course, activity and interest are pretty limited until the Derby gets closer. Also, if you want to "buy" a share, it's risky to leave the offer open. If the horse gets injured, someone is going to rush to sell you the share you want.

--Dunbar

That's not necessarily true, Randall. If you went into the Derby with those 3 horses at those odds, you would probably have been able to construct a bet on each of the other horses that would have guaranteed you a win no matter which horse won.

That's actually close to my approach to the Derby. I try to pick up futures along the way that will allow me an arbitrage come Derby Day.

Too bad the offshore scene has changed so dramatically from a year ago.

--Dunbar

Someone just popped a huge bet on the "All others". Up to an hour ago, the "All others" had been oscillating between 3-1 and 7-2 since yesterday morning. Now I see it is 2-1. When I last looked there was about $100K in the pool. Now there is 140K. I'm guessing someone made a $20K bet on "All others".

--Dunbar

Of course,it is all the money for Tiago and Spankey.If Liquidity goes off 50-1, or better,then I will take some of that.Horses that try that hard, can improve (to pss on your party.)

I just looked and there is $222K bet in the pool.

"All others" is 5/2. I like that bet but thats about as low as it can go to seriously think about dropping a wager on it in my opinion. I suspect it will go off at 2/1.

Is everyone with late money waiting until tomorrow? Circular Quay is still 17/1 and Lawrence the Roman 22/1 while Notional is 40/1 and Zanjero 76/1.

I don't know, but at 2-1, you can't bet the field anymore.

I hope CQ drifts up a bit after the Risen Star. I'll toss a few $$ on him if he gets up to 25-1.

I'd need 65-1 to consider it.

hmmm, ok.. and which horses do you consider a 'good deal' at this point?

I was hoping for 20-1 on Any Given Saturday but probably won't get it. Was hoping for 30-1 on Great Hunter but probably won't get it. Most likely the only horse that in the end will offer enough value for me to take a stab at will be Liquidity.

Actually I just realized Liquidity is another O'Neill that flopped miserably when leaving California. I might be passing on him too.

That's what's cool about the future wager, different people see different value is certain bets.
I've been on CQ's bandwagon since I saw him break his maiden, so I'll be happy to get something in the 25-1 range. It's a crapshoot anyway, so hopefully I'll have something to route for on the first Saturday in May.

Good for you.

Not exactly a fan of CQ, but if you were liking this horse before the Risen Star, I saw no reason to jump off the bandwagon. I think you'll get something more like 20-1, but that ain't too bad either. CQ didn't need the win to remain on the Derby trail - and even though he is 0-3, I don't doubt he can go two turns.

10 f in the Derby is a tall order for any horse, but with a solid 2YO campaign and some races and training under his belt it's conceivable.

I pretty much would take a shot at anything that's a runner and from the Mr P line. A Derby winning daddy only encourages me more.

I wouldn't play anything less than 15-1 in this pool, and for various reasons I'll be skipping it altogether (I like Ravel, but he's getting backed. I like Street Sense as well, but I'm hoping he comes up a bit short in the Hutcheson and will be better odds in pool 2. I'm also moving half a continent away from where I would have to make a wager -so that seals my sitting out).

At this point though, if you held a gun to my head and forced me to make a wager I think CQ would be one of the horses I'd play.

His supporters should actually be relieved he encountered trouble and finished off the board. If you liked him before the Risen Star, load up on him now.